This has been a slow motion crisis a long time coming, but here is how the process apparently works:
- The Bureau of Reclamation has issued a 24-month forecast indicating that an official shortage declaration is coming. The forecast does not yet prompt any specific requirements or action.
- The shortage declaration would happen when Lake Mead falls below 1,075 feet (328 meters), projected to happen in June. “That’s the level that prompts a shortage declaration under agreements negotiated by seven states that rely on Colorado River water: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.”
- Actual changes to reservoir operations would happen in January 2022.
The article says Arizona could “lose one third of its water supply”. This is not a surprise however and there have been some preparations. Arizona and Nevada, along with Mexico, have already agreed to voluntary cuts and started looking into alternative sources and conservation measures.
So, it’s not a good idea to live near a coastline, in a desert, or in a fire prone region. Earthquakes and volcanoes are also best avoided. What is left? Maybe the Great Lakes region and parts of Canada?