game-changing technologies from 2020

Here are a few from various places around the web:

Nabeel S. Qureshi: From what I gather, this guy works at the RAND corporation, and is not related to the author with a similar name who passed away a couple years ago. Anyway, he has a list on Twitter:

  • mRNA vaccine
  • Apple M1 chip – it’s a computer chip, I guess a bit faster or more efficient or whatever than others
  • SpaceX rocket launch
  • GPT-3 – this is a machine learning thing that has to do with computers generating text that sounds very realistic to humans. Or to put it another way, computers can write now? But they still can’t think, that we know of. This seems concerning.
  • various initial public offerings
  • “V-shaped recovery” – optimistic, I hope it turns out to be true in retrospect
  • electric cars
  • “Crypto going mainstream” – cryptocurrency? I’m not sure how/if this affected me directly in 2020, but I do know that for the first time I used almost no cash at all from March-December.

scrolling through the comments, some of which have additional suggestions from nice people, interspersed with some nasty and stupid ones of course.

  • Bt eggplant – this is a crop with a relatively harmless insecticide built in. It basically targets a particular type of caterpillar. Okay I guess as long as it doesn’t escape into the wild and kill beneficial insects or outcompete unmodified plants. I sprinkle Bt for mosquitoes on my garden and in my storm drains.
  • technology and widespread adoption of remote working – some of this will fade after Covid, I assume, but I also assume it will settle at a level significantly higher than before Covid.
  • Neuralink, Starlink – these are micro-satellites
  • Cerebras – this is another computer chip
  • “BCI” – brain-computer interfaces? There is also a company called Buckeye Corrugated Inc. that makes cardboard. come on people, enough with the undefined acronyms
  • “6dof video capture” – “six degrees of freedom”, which has something to do with more realistic virtual reality
  • mixed reality – is this different from “augmented reality”?
  • GAN – this might be a “generative adversarial network”, which sounds like two AIs duking it out and coming up with something new
  • disinformation

Tyler Cowan, an economist who wrote “The Great Stagnation”, says the Great Stagnation is not over but it might be getting close to over. He says “the vaccine-driven recovery will measure as a rise in labor inputs, but in reality it will be pure TFP.  In 2021 (but which quarter?), true TFP will be remarkably high, maybe the highest ever?” Ooh ooh, I know this one! TFP is total factor productivity, which is the rise in productivity that can’t be attributed to capital and labor inputs. So it can represent some combination of innovations, or intangibles, errors and unknowns.

New technologies can take some time to come to fruition, even decades. So maybe we are starting to see an AI/biotech/renewable energy acceleration that we got excited about a long time ago and then forgot about? There are also some dangers and unintended consequences lurking on this list, as always.

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