At the end of September, my Hope for the Future Index stood at +1.  As I did last month, I’ll sort selected posts that talk about positive trends and ideas vs. negative trends, predictions, and risks. Just for fun, I’ll keep a score card and pretend my posts are some kind of indicator of whether things are getting better or worse. I’ll give posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.

Negative trends and predictions (-11):

• The Wall Street Journal prints an op-ed by a climate change skeptic. Wait, I thought there was a pure consensus among serious scientists about climate change. Or is it just serious climatologists, with a few lone dissenting physicists like this guy? Either way, there is an overwhelming near-consensus and by printing this the WSJ gives the idea that there is still a significant debate, thereby reducing the chances of action being taken. Meanwhile, the New York Times tells us where in the U.S. to move as the heat creeps up on us – Alaska, Seattle, and Detroit. Tidal flooding may also become a bigger problem in coastal cities. (-1)
• Economists and economic journalists are buzzing about a worldwide slowdown and an even more severe financial crisis that may be on the horizon. Europe, and France in particular, seem to be getting into dangerous territory right now. (-2)
• The new Living Planet Report says our ecological footprint has not ticked up from 1.5 planets since the last Living Planet Report. That is, no change given the rounding error of 0.1 planets. Before we get too happy, remember that a number over 1 is meant to measure the rate of decline. So these would be mean not that our situation has stabilized, but that the rate of decline has not accelerated. (-1)
• Slavery is a good example of how amoral profit-seeking private enterprise can lead to evil consequences. (-3)
• The drought in California and the U.S. desert southwest continues to get worse. Ours is not the first civilization to be impacted by drought in the U.S. desert southwest, and hopefully we will deal with it better than last time. (-1)
• The U.S. medical system may not be prepared for Ebola, and if not it would be even less well prepared for something even more serious. (-1)
• The American entrepreneurial spirit may have slowed down over the last generation. If this is true, it would be yet one more drag on the innovation pickup the world needs. (-1)
• Energy prices are down. I’m not smart enough to tell you definitively if this is good or bad. If it reflected a breakthrough in renewable energy technology and cost-effectiveness, or low energy, sustainable food production, it would be great news. I hope renewable energy is starting to have an effect. But the bulk of the effect, most likely, reflects upward pressure on supply from hydraulic fracturing, and downward pressure on demand from economic slowing in Asia and Europe. High energy and food prices over the past decade quite likely have a hand in the economic slowing. Economic slowing can lower the world’s ecological footprint a bit, but it can also slow down innovation and, of course, lead to unemployment, hunger, unrest and conflict. (-0)
• Echoes of the Cold War are rearing their ugly head, with Sweden out searching for Russian submarines in its territorial waters. (-1)

Positive trends and predictions (+8):

• Maybe green consumer behavior can be scaled up through clever advertising. (+1)
• Mosquitoes are being purposely infected with a naturally occurring bacteria, then released to control Dengue fever. (+1)
• Automation (i.e. increasing computer control of nearly everything) is really taking hold of our economy and society, with potentially positive consequences for overall productivity and wealth, but potentially negative consequences for employment and distribution of wealth, depending on how it is handled. (+0)
• There really are a lot of good examples and a lot of knowledge out there on how to have a lot of healthy trees in cities. This is known technology. Now cities in North America and the developing world just need to catch up and adopt the technology. (+1)
• The old economy, for example dirty old fossil fueled electric utilities and sleazy taxi companies, are fighting the new, such as solar road materials and ride sharing. As they realize the technological and economic tide is turning against them, they are fighting in legislatures and courts for special laws that are unfair in their favor. They might win some battles and retard progress for a while, but I don’t see how they can win the long-term war. (+1)
• LED light bulbs are now the overwhelming best household lighting choice, even in terms of purchase price. (+1)
• Developing countries today are achieving much better health outcomes than developing countries of the past did at similar income levels. (+1)
• People are waking up to fact that computer-controlled cars may free up large amounts of space in cities for new uses. (+2)
• New technology for freezing human eggs may give women more flexibility on how and when to start a family, but muddle the historical meaning of biological relationships and generations. (+0)

Hope for the Future Index (September 2014): +1

October 2014 change: -11 + 8 = -3

Hope for the Future Index (October 2014): +1 – 3 = -2