my official election prediction

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There’s plenty of election coverage out there, so who needs this post? Well, I’ve been looking for one source of information on when the swing state polls close, what the vote counting situation is, and what the current poll/forecast situation is. I don’t see all of that in one place so here, just for myself, is some info.

I’m a little partial to FiveThirtyEight, just because I’ve been following them for a few elections now. There are other polling and modeling sources out there. I got poll closing times from 270 to win.

Florida

  • Poll closing: 7:00 p.m. ET (for most of the state including all the sizable cities, except that little bit of the panhandle including Pensacola at 8:00 p.m. ET)
  • The counting situation, according to 538: Despite their bad reputation from that election year that shall not be named around the turn of the century, they expect to have most or all results within two hours of closing. They count absentee and mail-in votes in advance, so they just need to combine them with live results and it should result in a more or less complete count. Unless things are really really close, like, you know, that one year…
  • 538 poll average on Friday 10/30 around 4:30 p.m.: Biden +2.2%
  • 538 odds on Friday 10/30 around 4:30 p.m.: Biden 66/34

Georgia

  • Poll closing: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: quick. They’ve counted mail-in ballots in advance. They expect overseas ballots to trickle in, but things would have to be really close for those to matter.

Ohio

  • Poll closing: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: They count absentee ballots in advance, then in-person votes, but they will still count absentee ballots received up to November 13. So if it is close enough that outstanding mail-in ballots could make a difference, news organizations won’t call it on election night.

North Carolina

  • Poll closing: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: About 80% should be counted right away, and more over the next few hours. But then they will still count ballots arriving by November 12, so same story: news organizations won’t call it if it is close.

Texas

  • Poll closing: 8:00 ET (locations in the Central Time Zone, which is almost all of Texas), 9:00 PM (locations in the Mountain Time Zone, which is basically El Paso)
  • The counting situation: Almost everything early on election night. They will still count ballots received by 5 p.m. the day after election day.

Pennsylvania

  • Poll closing: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: Oh, my beloved home state. Pennsyltucky as some call it, but that is completely unfair to the great state of Kentucky which plans to count 90% of ballots on election night. Under state law, we will not start counting mail-in ballots until polls open on election day. The process is supposed to conclude around Friday. Enormous numbers of people have voted by mail, including yours truly. Republicans will tend to vote in person, Democrats by mail. The state is about equally split (basically the Philadelphia metro region and downtown Pittsburgh vs. pretty much everyone else). So it could look like things are trending Republican on election night, but there will be enormous numbers of outstanding ballots expected to skew Democratic. Pennylvania will also count ballots received up to three days after election day, as allowed in not one but two Supreme Court cases over the past few weeks. Bottom line, it seems unlikely this one will be called on election night.

Michigan

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “a few days”. They will start counting mail-in ballots one day early, but are not expecting to finish until around Friday.

Arizona

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “most” on election night

Iowa

  • Poll closing: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “most” on election night, and they are counting mail-in ballots early

Wisconsin

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “all results by Wednesday morning”

Nevada

  • Poll closing: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: expecting to get most votes from the Vegas area on election night, but counting all votes could take until November 10

Okay, so how might election night unfold. First, I went to 270 to Win’s interactive map. You can pre-populate it with a variety of forecasts from a variety of sources, which is cool. I stuck with 538. Then I turned all the states above into “tossups”. I gave Trump one bonus electoral vote from Maine’s second district, which I don’t know anything about or what to do with.

This starting point is: Biden 227, Trump 126 (remember, you need 270 to win)

Let’s do a scenario where things go unexpectedly well for Trump.

  • Florida closes and is counted quickly. Biden 227, Trump 155
  • Counting also goes well in Georgia. Biden 227, Trump 171
  • Let’s say things go well for Trump in Ohio (where he is a slight favorite), and news organizations are willing to call it: Biden 227, Trump 189
  • North Carolina is counted quickly and goes to Trump: Biden 227, Trump 204
  • Texas goes to Trump quickly and decisively: Biden 227, Trump 242
  • Pennsylvania: no call on election night
  • Michigan: no call on election night
  • Arizona goes to Biden: Biden 238, Trump 242
  • Iowa is counted quickly and goes to Trump: Biden 238, Trump 248
  • Wisconsin is not really close. Even with some outstanding ballots, let’s say news organizations call it for Biden on election night. Biden 248, Trump 248
  • Nevada is not really close, but let’s say there is no call on election night.

We are tied. We go to bed, and every politician in America from President on down starts running their mouth on Wednesday. Lawsuits ensue. But those votes from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada trickle in during the week, and Biden has substantial leads in all three. It would take an extraordinary amount of luck just for Trump to get close to 50/50 odds.

Here’s a more likely scenario, so let’s consider this my prediction:

  • Florida is called for Biden around 8 p.m. The call is made by the same news organizations that called Florida for Al Gore precisely 20 years ago, but they are much more conservative (in the statistical sense, meaning looking for a higher degree of certainty) these days. Biden 256, Trump 126
  • Georgia goes narrowly for Trump. Biden 256, Trump 142
  • Ohio goes to Trump. Biden 256, Trump 160
  • North Carolina is called for Biden around 9 p.m. Biden 271, Trump 160. IT’S OVER!!!
  • I’m going to stop doing math now. Texas and Iowa go narrowly to Trump, but Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada pile on for Biden late Tuesday night or sometime on Wednesday, and the route is on.
  • It doesn’t matter if Pennsylvania and Michigan take a long time to count their votes, but eventually they do, and the route becomes a landslide. I’ll call 300+ a landslide, although it certainly falls short of the near-sweep (525/538) Ronald Reagan pulled off in 1984. Like the guy or not, that was a clear victory.
  • My final prediction: Biden 334, Trump 204

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