Here’s an interesting interactive tool on FiveThirtyEight.com where you can play around with U.S. voter turnout and preferences among various demographic groups.

I ran a few scenarios:

• The default scenario is that each demographic group (educated white, uneducated white, black, hispanic/latino, and Asian) votes for the same party in the same proportions as 2012, and turns out at the same rate, but the absolute size of each group is adjusted for changes between 2012 and 2016.
  • electoral votes 332-206 in favor of DEMOCRATS
• Let’s go back to the default, and all the Asian people stay home.
  • 332-206 in favor of DEMOCRATS (just not enough people, and maybe already concentrated in democratic states)
• Back to the default, and all the hispanic/latino people stay home.
  • 283-255 in favor of DEMOCRATS (perhaps hispanics/latinos are also concentrated in already democratic states?)
• Back to the default, and black turnout falls from 66% to 29%
  • 286-252 in favor of REPUBLICANS (perhaps this flips some key midwest swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.)
• Back to the default, and uneducated whites swing strongly to the right, from 62% last time to 69% Republican (maybe a terrorist attack? a major incident with China or Russia? I don’t want to say false flag, this is not one of those conspiracy websites…)
  • 282-256 in favor of REPUBLICANS (probably those swing states again)
• Stay with the previous scenario, but educated whites swing ever so slightly to the left, from 56% Republican last time to 54% Republican (what would cause this? I don’t know, some crazy right-wing candidate spouting racist nonsense maybe, I’m not naming names…)
  • 275-263 in favor of DEMOCRATS

So the bottom line is that the minority groups tend to vote Democrat.The uneducated whites tend to vote Republican. The educated whites are the swing voters who end up being the deciding factor. So it is hard to see how a Republican candidate who appeals strongly to uneducated whites but alienates educated whites could ever stand much of a chance.