We’re entering that time of year for look-backs and trend forecasts. Trends in Ecology and Evolution journal has A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016:

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.

I vaguely remember that The X Files was obsessed with bees as delivery devices for smallpox, or aliens, or alien smallpox…

I hadn’t heard the phrase “ecological civilization” before. When I Google it I am finding references to statements by the Chinese government and quotes from Marx and Engels (who had a lot to say about depletion of natural resources by short-sighted profit seeking entities, although they might have objected to the term “natural capital”). Here is an article from The Diplomat, a respected international news magazine based in Tokyo:

The “ecological civilization” concept first appeared in 2007, in a report to the 17th National People’s Congress. At the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee in 2013, Xi stressed that China would implement “ecological civilization reforms” – reforms to reconcile contradictions between economic development and the environment. In April this year, the plan was restated, with the release of a document outlining the acceleration of moves to establish an ecological civilization.

Proposals include performing natural resources audits when local officials leave their posts, so as to force officials pay attention to environmental protection while in office, or be held to account when they leave. A pilot scheme will be carried out in five different locations, including Hulunbuir in Inner Mongolia. It is the first time such a trial has been proposed by the central government. It will take place in three stages: a launch this year, expansion next year, then in 2017 full audits in the trial locations, with regular audits starting from 2018. The aim is to get local officials to give greater priority to the environment, compared to the economy…

Sun Xinghua, deputy chair of the China Environmental Sciences Association’s auditing committee, told chinadialogue that “confirmation of property rights for natural resources has never been raised before.” Currently, ownership of natural resources in China is unclear. Clarification of rights and responsibilities will reduce disputes and allow for valuation of natural resources. And valuation will allow the compilation of tables of ‘natural resource debts’, removing a major obstacle to auditing of natural resources when local officials leave their posts.

That’s a pretty interesting idea – calculating a politician’s “debt to nature” based on policies they have chosen. You could even do that for, say, an entire legislature and display that number next to economic output statistics for their time in office.