Here I will risk covering a fast moving current event. If I am right, I get to say I told you so as the world goes down in flames. Here is a scenario envisioned in one random blog post:

• The US bombs Houthi military targets (and civilians) in Yemen – happening now, March 21, 2025.
• Houthis attack US naval ships with missiles and drones (happening now) and achieve some damage (hasn’t happened yet).
• The US blames the attack on Iran.
• The US attacks Iran.
• Iran attacks US bases, oil and gas infrastructure in surrounding countries such as UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.

It’s not mentioned in this article, but I have seen elsewhere, suggestions that Trump might consider low-yield nuclear weapons. I can also imagine a scenario where, in the fog of war, Israel initiates a nuclear attack and claims it is pre-empting an Iranian nuclear attack.

Let’s hope none of this comes to pass. It would result in enormous loss of life, possibly cause a world-wide recession, and unleash the nuclear genie that has been successfully bottled up since 1945.