I like the Urbanomics blog. It is India-focused but also covers international and U.S. topics. Here are a few things that caught my eye:
- a chart showing the average global temperature in 2024 surpassed 1.5 degrees C of warming. I don’t know exactly how the IPCC threshold is defined, for example if it is a multi-year average, but nonetheless this ship is setting sail right about now.
- a chart showing the incredible run for the U.S. stock market this year. As I enter the 10-15 years to retirement window, I can’t help thinking whether this is my last bubble during working years and what the timing means for me personally when it pops or deflates. And given the first bullet, how does the real geophysical overreach bubble we find ourselves in, which it seems might be springing a leak, relate to this financial bubble?
- a chart showing that China imported the largest share of U.S. goods and services a decade ago but has dropped sharply as the #1 destination for U.S. exports. Canada and Mexico are the other 2 in the top 3. Still, a chart like this tells us only the relative position and doesn’t tell us whether the overall value of U.S. exports has increased in this time, or whether the composition has changed (for example, how much is food and energy vs. high-tech products like electronics or military equipment.) For that matter, when the U.S. governments gives foreign governments aid consisting of cash that they are required to use to buy things from U.S. corporations, does this count as an export? I am thinking it probably does.
- Embedded in this 2024 roundup is another entire 2024 roundup, the World Bank’s 2024 Key Development Challenges. The trend in extreme poverty around the world is still down, but gains have slowed since the pandemic and are projected to continue to be slow. Huge numbers of people still lack access to modern sanitation, electricity, drinking water, and education. Climate hazards such as floods, heat waves, droughts and tropical storms are a headwind to further gains. Generally, debt burdens have increased and economic growth has slowed in developing countries since the pandemic. As much as we are complaining about inflation in the developed world, it has been much worse in developing countries, where inflation in food prices has been about double that in developed countries. Overall, commodity prices are about 30% higher than before the pandemic.
- Embedded within the World Bank’s roundup is the “Business Ready 2024” ranking of developing economies based on business environment. This suggests specific policies developing countries (and likely, many developed countries, cities and regions) can take to encourage the private sector. Many of these are relatively straightforward and do not require large amounts of money, which does not mean of course that they are politically or administratively easy to implement.