Nate Silver has his own blog out now, the Silver Bulletin (I assume he checked to make sure this is not already an AARP newsletter). Polling averages are free to look at, but you have to pay if you want to see his election prediction model. Just looking at Pennsylvania, he has Trump at +3.1% today (I’m writing on Saturday, July 13, 2024), while Nate Silver left-behind 538/ABC has us at Trump +2.9%. The Real Clear Politics straight-up average is Trump +5.3%. So this illustrates some uncertainty but it is clear to me at least that Biden is toast. Or to quote the headline in the Telegraph, “Biden looks finished – there’s surely no coming back from this…he just made America look like an international joke”.

He is obviously having trouble accessing words on command. I just don’t believe though that he is so far gone he can’t make the political calculation above. Or even if he can’t certainly the people around him can. We can dare to hope that the responsible adults are taking time to come up with a face-saving exit plan (“on the advice of my doctors…”) and to have a plan B in place before they announce said exit plan.