This is one of those posts where I say I am not going to comment on fast-moving current events, and then I do anyway. I’m writing this the morning of Saturday, July 6, 2024, and anything can happen before this gets posted and certainly between now and when you are reading it, whoever you are.

Here are two interviews with Biden, one from September 2023 and one from last night. The difference is pretty clear to me. It’s clear that he is having a lot of trouble accessing words and names on demand. That in itself does not indicate that a person is not able to think clearly. Surely, if he had had a stroke his doctors, family and political team would not be trying to cover that up? (But see Woodrow Wilson where this exact thing happened – with his wife and doctors concealing the extent of it not just from the public but from Wilson himself. And some say losing his leadership was decisive in the harshness of the Treaty of Versailles, the failure of the League of Nations, both of which led to World War II being more likely.) Not being a particularly articulate person, I have had this problem myself in many stressful situations, such as job interviews and first dates, even in my 20s. But I am not a professional politician. Being articulate and appearing to be sharp thinking on their feet is their stock in trade, and as they say, “perception is reality” in politics.

In terms of the hard nosed probability of a Democrat winning this election in November 2024, a few days ago I thought the risk of someone other than Biden was greater than the risk of Biden losing. If Biden could return even to the form we see below from September 2023, I think the “bad night” at the debate would blow over and the election would be at least a tossup. I am coming around to the idea though that the situation is deteriorating and will continue to deteriorate over the next four months. Biden seems to be having more trouble over time and the spotlight is going to be on him every second. So I think the situation is irretrievable. Taking a sort of reverse inspiration from Woodrow Wilson, his doctors can “discover” some condition that requires his immediate retirement, and he can then announce that he is retiring with some relative saving of face. Maybe we’ll get that “contested convention” we are always hearing about. Personally I like Kamala Harris okay, and maybe she would inspire enough turnout in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee to eke out a victory. Or maybe a percentage point or two of suburban swing voters won’t bother to turn out for her because they just “don’t like her”, as happened to Hillary. Or maybe Trump will suffer an honest-to-god stroke in the next four months. The country has had a run of bad luck and we are due.