Well, I was all set to tell you that the polls moved decisively toward Biden in June, and that would have been true with just a few days to go. But it seems the debate on June 27 really did cause a sharp swing toward Trump. I don’t like it, but these are the facts of the case. We will see if the effect is persistent or if things slowly revert to trend. Either way, the polls closing in the last few days of June may not fully indicate the state of the damage, so it may get worse before it gets better for Biden, if it does in fact ever get better.
| STATE | 2020 RESULT | Most Recent 538 Poll Average (as of 7/1/24) |
| Arizona | Biden +0.4% | Trump +4.8% (June 1: Trump +4.7) |
| Georgia | Biden +0.3% | Trump +6.3% (June 1: Trump +5.5) |
| Wisconsin | Biden +0.6% | Trump +0.8% (June 1: Trump +1.4%) |
| North Carolina | Trump +1.3% | Trump +7.3% (June 1: Trump +6.2%) |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +1.2% | Trump +2.0% (June 1: Trump +2.0%) |
| Michigan | Biden +2.8% | Trump +1.8% (June 1: Trump +0.6%) |
| Nevada | Biden +2.4% | Trump +3.8% (June 1: Trump +5.9%) |
In June, 1/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Biden – Nevada.
In June, 1/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Biden – Wisconsin.
In June, 1/7 swing states had no change – Pennsylvania.
In June, 2/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Trump – Arizona, Georgia.
In June, 2/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Trump – North Carolina and Michigan.
So the trend is all over the place, with big swings toward Trump coming right at the end of the month. Trump obviously has all the swing states at the moment and is headed for an electoral college landslide if current trends hold.
Enough has been written about the debate. I’ll just link to this Politico article that points out that if you were just reading the transcript, a lot of what he said was very reasonable and even astute. That was my impression when listening to the actual debate. But I can’t excuse any politician for failing to be prepared and put on a decent rhetorical performance – that is what they do, and there 10,000 politicians who could have done it better than Biden did on Thursday night. So either he was inexplicably, inexcusably poorly prepared, or he really is faltering physically and mentally, with dire consequences for our nation’s future.