I’m sticking with 538’s adjusted poll averages here, which consider poll quality and recency.
| STATE | 2020 RESULT | Most Recent 538 Poll Average (as of 6/1/24) |
| Arizona | Biden +0.4% | Trump +4.7% (May 2: Trump +3.2) |
| Georgia | Biden +0.3% | Trump +5.5% (May 2: Trump +5.9) |
| Wisconsin | Biden +0.6% | Trump +1.4% (May 2: Trump +2.6%) |
| North Carolina | Trump +1.3% | Trump +6.2% (May 2: Trump +6.4%) |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +1.2% | Trump +2.0% (May 2: Trump +1.8%) |
| Michigan | Biden +2.8% | Trump +0.6% (May 2: Trump +1.3%) |
| Nevada | Biden +2.4% | Trump +5.9% (May 2: Trump +5.1%) |
In May, 1/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Biden – Wisconsin.
In May, 3/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Biden – Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan.
In May, 2/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Trump – Pennsylvania, Nevada.
In May, 1/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Trump – Arizona.
So it’s hard to say things are trending one way or the other over the past month, and the trend needs to be significantly in Biden’s favor for him to have a good shot in November. As it stands now, the electoral college would be 312 Trump to 226 Biden, a major defeat. If Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were to all break for Biden, it would be Biden 270 to Trump 268.