Here’s where we stand as I write this on May 2, 2024.
| STATE | 2020 RESULT | Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 5/2/24) |
| Arizona | Biden +0.4% | Trump +5.0% (April 3: Trump +5.2) |
| Georgia | Biden +0.3% | Trump +3.8% (April 3: Trump +4.5) |
| Wisconsin | Biden +0.6% | Trump +1.8% (April 3: Trump +0.6%) |
| North Carolina | Trump +1.3% | Trump +5.4% (April 3: Trump +4.6%) |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +1.2% | Trump +1.0% (April 3: Trump +0.6%) |
| Michigan | Biden +2.8% | Trump +1.2% (April 3: Trump +3.4%) |
| Nevada | Biden +2.4% | Trump +4.5% (April 3: Trump +3.2%) |
The electoral college vote, as it stands at the moment, would be 312 for Trump to 226 for Biden (no change from April 3).
Of the 7 swing states lifted above, 3 shifted toward Biden (Arizona, Georgia less than 1%; Michigan more than 1%) and 4 shifted toward Trump (North Carolina and Pennsylvania less than 1%; Nevada and Wisconsin more than 1%). So it’s hard to see any clear momentum towards Biden in these numbers over the past month.
ABC-owned, Nate Silver-less 538 has its polling averages out now. These are supposedly weighted by quality and bias based on performance in past elections, so we can compare them to the Real Clear Politics straight up averages of quality and garbage polls. The 538 averages also consider third party candidates.
| STATE | 538 Poll Average (5/2/24) | Real Clear Politics Poll Average (5/2/24) |
| Arizona | Trump +3.2% | Trump +5.0% |
| Georgia | Trump +5.9% | Trump +3.8% |
| Wisconsin | Trump +2.6% | Trump +1.8% |
| North Carolina | Trump +6.4% | Trump +5.4% |
| Pennsylvania | Trump +1.8% | Trump +1.0% |
| Michigan | Trump +1.3% | Trump +1.2% |
| Nevada | Trump +5.1% | Trump +4.5% |
So there is certainly not a story here to suggest that 538 thinks we are flooded with garbage polls biased towards Trump. 6 of their 7 averages show larger leads for Trump than the Real Clear Politics straight up averages. They could also suggest a shift toward Trump in more recent polls, since 538 gives more recent polls some extra weight.
Taken alongside the worsening March inflation trend, which was released in April and might tend to affect poll results released in April, I don’t see any good news here for Biden.