Here’s where we stand as I write this on February 4, 2024. Most of the polling averages now include some polls conducted in January.
| STATE | 2020 RESULT | Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 2/4/24) |
| Arizona | Biden +0.4% | Trump +4.5% |
| Georgia | Biden +0.3% | Trump +7.2% |
| Wisconsin | Biden +0.6% | Trump +0.2% |
| North Carolina | Trump +1.3% | Trump +5.4% (RCP doesn’t provide this average but I have averaged the ones they provide, some of which are quite old) |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +1.2% | Biden +0.3% |
| Michigan | Biden +2.8% | Trump +5.1% |
| Nevada | Biden +2.4% | Trump +7.0% |
It is not hard to figure this out from the above numbers, but if I make a customized electoral college map on 270towin.com, the picture is awful for Biden, with 293 Trump electoral votes to 245 for Biden.
The “538 Politics Podcast” generally has been much reduced in quality post-Nate Silver and post-ABC buyout, but they did have this interesting episode (actually – I can’t figure out how to link directly to it, this is how shitty their website is now – but search for “How Americans feel about the economy”) recently about research on how peoples’ shock over episodes of inflation “decay” over time. Basically, the shock declines by about 50% of the remaining amount over the course of a year. So, even though the rate of price increase has declined, we are now feeling about 50% of the shock from the shocking inflation of 2022. By the November election, we will be feeling about 25% of the shock. Is this enough to count on? Certainly not, but even to realize this the economy needs to stay as good as it is now for the next nine months, and inflation needs to not go back up again.