Tag Archives: real estate

house sale price premiums by month and city

Zillow has some data on how much above average home prices are by month of the year and by US city. In general, prices are higher by about 1-3% in March-June. I assume this has something to do with the U.S. school year. It may be somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy though. Last time I was in the home buying market, which was almost exactly 10 years ago, I started looking for listings in January, but there really was nothing to look at until March. So people in my city (Philadelphia) don’t start listing until March, and by the time you go through the process it seems like most closings are going to be in the May-June time frame (precisely when mine was). I wonder if refinancings show up as home sales in this data though, or if they have some way of knowing when the properties actually change hands. That could skew the data because people can refinance any time of year, and they are likely to refinance when interest rates are relatively low and prices therefore relatively high.

most popular words in home listings in 2022

I am a big fan of walkable urban communities, and I want to believe my fellow Americans would learn to love them if they just had more options to experience them. But an analysis of home listing keywords shows that what is selling is still big floor space, big yards, and garages.

Spaciousness defines home descriptions in 2022: Keywords addressing the need for more “room,” “space,” and an “open floor plan” were among the most used, aimed at ticking the boxes of space-deprived buyers. This universal need for space was also reflected in the frequent use of space-related adjectives, like “open” or “great.”

Curb appeal matters, but parking space matters more: “Garage” was the most-mentioned amenity in listing descriptions across the country.

Homes that promise a “patio/porch” or a “yard” might experience a boost in interest with these outdoor amenities still riding high off their post-pandemic popularity.

point2homes.com

Due to the tyranny of geometry, you can’t have lots of private space, lots of parking, and the density that allows walkability all at the same time. If we want to reduce car use, we will have to find ways to make shared public spaces as good or better than the private spaces people are saying they want, and we will have to find ways for people to get from point A to point B that are faster, cheaper, and more pleasant than the private car infrastructure they are saying they want. I would say safer, but almost anything is safer than cars and having non-deadly transportation options does not seem to be a selling point in our real estate market. The people have spoken.

To create space inside houses in the city, you can either go vertical or you can take it away from other land uses. Some people like high rise living, but the public by and large does not seem to want this. The next option to create space inside houses and for private outdoor space is to take it away from public outdoor space. This is what we tend to do in denser neighborhoods like the one I live in – some people are able to have small yards and some people live in exclusive gated communities with their own private parks. Public open space is extremely limited, in extremely high demand, and to a certain extent a victim of its own success (for example, because trash cans quickly become overwhelmed on the weekend leading to litter, bags of dog waste, and odors). So in this case, people who value large, nice smelling open spaces don’t stick around. The final option to create more space, both indoor and outdoor, public and private, is to take it away from driveways, garages, parking lots, roads, and street parking. People resist this because cars are still the most convenient way to get around, if you happen to have convenient parking. Public transportation, where it exists, is slow, infrequent, and gross. Biking and other forms of personal mobility, even where they have dedicated infrastructure, are not remotely safe. We know how to improve these things, but there is a bit of a chicken and egg problem where the public does not support spending more money or taking more space for them because they are so pathetic now. You could break this cycle by just fixing it using known technical solutions, but at a high political and financial risk. You could create pilot programs in certain neighborhoods where public support exists, but then you run into the gentrification trap because it is likely to be higher-income neighborhoods where that support exists. Or you can thrust it into lower-income neighborhoods where there is more likely to be public opposition, and that is also politically and financially risky. So we might need leadership with the courage to take some risk, and this is in particularly short supply.

coastal inundation value at risk

Union of Concerned Scientists has tried to combine inundation mapping, property value estimates from Zillow, and property tax information to give an idea of property value and tax revenue at risk from rising sea levels. They chose a time horizon of around a 30-year mortgage. It seems a bit coarse to me, but it still illustrates that with available information, insurance companies, mortgage lenders, and real estate markets are going to start piecing this together and it is going to start showing up in buying decisions and prices.