Tag Archives: poverty

March 2025 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story: The U.S. might be headed for recession. Recessions happen, but this would be the first one where the U.S. government obviously and counter to all competent advice throws a monkey wrench in a perfectly healthy economy, that I know of anyway. Lest we think GDP growth is only a statistic that does not affect real people, the U.S. poverty rate among children was 5% in 2021 and rose to over 13% in 2023, when the economy was doing relatively well as measured by GDP growth and employment, but Congress forced the end of Biden’s tax credits for parents. So pop quiz: force a completely unnecessary recession by choice and will more or less children suffer? Shame shame shame on the Trump administration and Congress you stupid assholes.

Most hopeful story: Trump seems to have some anti-nuclear (weapons) instincts. We will see if his actions bear any relation to his words.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Prospera is a weird quasi-autonomous city-state nominally inside Honduras run by crypto-currency weirdos.

U.S. Poverty: Facts and Figures

This article from Peter G. Peterson Foundation has some facts and figures on U.S. poverty.

  • It explains the difference between the Official Poverty Measure and Supplemental Poverty Measure, both calculated by the Census Bureau. The former does not consider the effects of government benefits, while the latter does. I was thinking that the spread between the two could be seen as a measure of how effective government benefits are. But the supplemental measure is actually higher than the official one (12.9% vs. 11.1% in 2023) because it also takes into account some expenses that poor families face, including health care, housing, and child support.
  • Of those below the poverty line, about one-third live in deep poverty defined as half or less of the poverty level.
  • Racial disparities are pretty much what you would think. But I was surprised that the poverty rate among Asian-Americans is higher than the poverty rate among white Americans. This is interesting because I know Asian-Americans have a higher median household income as a group than white Americans. For the other groups, poverty rate and median household income seem to track pretty well. For Asian-Americans, this result suggests there is a large disparity with some very high income and some very low income people. The article does not cover Native Americans.
  • The (supplemental) poverty rate among children was 5.1% in 2021 due to pandemic-era programs and bounced back to 13.7% in 2023. Thanks Biden! No, literally thanks Biden 5.1% and no thanks to Congress you cold unfeeling psychopaths for the 13.7%. How can they live with themselves (answer: a majority of politicians are cold unfeeling psychopaths), and how can they be so unbelievably adept at deflecting blame that the public is unaware or supportive (answer: anti-tax and racist propaganda).

There is more interesting stuff in this article, which I may talk about in a future post.

the Philly mayoral election

We have a presumptive mayor-elect who won less than a third of the vote. This is because we have a first-past-the-post system. It is not a democratic system because the absolute lowest bar you can set for a democratic system is majority rule. Cherelle Parker is a Black woman who beat a Jewish woman and an Asian-American woman who (the latter two) had very similar policy positions and together won about 45% of the vote. I mention race here not because it should matter, but because racial politics are a reality in this city and some voters are never going to cross racial lines no matter what policy positions or records of achievement are on display.

https://vote.phila.gov/results/

Now, I wish presumptive Mayor-elect Parker well. I promise to give her some time and ultimately judge her by her actions and not just her rhetoric. But during her campaign, she did not speak to issues that matter most to me. She spoke mostly about violence and education. Of course, I care about violence and education. I am raising (incidentally, mixed-race, not that it should matter) children in this city. But the mayor ultimately has limited control over these issues. Nobody knows, absolutely 100%, what has caused the current spike in gun violence. You can come up with some ideas, look at the evidence for what has worked in the past and in other cities, and try some things. But Cherrelle Parker is not a candidate who talked about evaluating evidence or best practices from other cities. In fact, a large part of her campaign pitch was that other candidates had spent time in other cities and were bringing ideas from elsewhere, and Philadelphia voters do not want people from elsewhere “telling us what to do”. As for schools, they are controlled by the School District of Philadelphia, which the mayor has only some limited control over, and which is limited by decisions of state legislators, some with pointy white hoods in their closets. Again, you can look at evidence and best practices and try some things, but her campaign platform if anything had an anti-intellectual bent, and that seemed to appeal to a plurality of voters in this city. Cherelle Parker was a state legislator at one point, and she is clearly a talented, successful politician, so maybe she will have some ideas on how to get more state funding and remove barriers imposed by the anti-city pointy white hood crowd in the middle of the state.

Philadelphia has outdated sanitation practices. Mayors have 100% direct control over these practices. The trash situation is a major nuisance, and the Atlantic Ocean will be full of Philadelphia trash for 10,000 years after our civilization is gone. I am a civil engineer and an environmentalist, and I am morally outraged by this. I somewhat doubt Mayor Parker is going to fix it, but again I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

Philadelphia has outdated and, I will just say it, incompetent street design practices. Whether children are dying on our city streets from gun violence or car violence, they are dying and this is morally outrageous. I somewhat doubt Mayor Parker is going to fix it, but again I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

You see my point here. Competent leadership at the Philadelphia Streets Department, which oversees sanitation and street design and maintenance, is absolutely crucial. Our city is decades behind even average practice elsewhere in the county, let alone the world, and people and the environment are suffering as a result. Part of Cherelle Parker’s campaign pitch, which apparently resonated with voters, is that she has spent her whole life in Philadelphia and never lived anywhere else. Will she be the one to bring our city up to even average standards of safety? Prove me wrong, presumptive Mayor-elect Parker.

Here are some insights into what happened.

This is so obviously a false choice. Safe, modern street designs, along with reliable public transportation, allow people to get to work and earn a living. They keep children from dying on public streets. But people don’t see it this way. Philadelphia has a concentrated poverty problem. The field of economics predicts that people whose basic needs are not met will not be advocates for what are seen as luxuries, such as environmental quality and convenient, safe travel. People whose basic needs are not met are going to be advocates for the basic needs such as food and shelter. Then, when people whose basic needs are met advocate for a higher level of services, such as safe streets, people whose basic needs are not met resent this. People also just tend to be resistant to change, and opposition to upgrades to safe street design reflect this, even if they would mean fewer dead children.

Sadly, concentrated poverty is the result of a century or more of racist land use and housing policy. It can’t be solved within the narrow political jurisdictions where it occurs, but rather needs to be solved by some income distribution and basic service provision at the state and federal scale. The working class and middle class in Philadelphia is absolutely tapped out when it comes to taxes, so even those of us who might support some level of income redistribution at the state and federal level are struggling to get by. Meanwhile, our local politicians try to address concentrated poverty by narrowing the tax base, restricting development, and creating disincentives for affluent taxpayers to move into the city or university graduates to stay and join the tax base. We were a city of 2 million people at our peak and are down to about 1.6 million. Like it or not, growing the tax base would benefit the poor. Safe modern streets, excellent public transportation, and schools that just meet modern building codes would all help. But our politicians just can’t get out of their own way.

I love you, Philadelphia. Prove me wrong, Mayor Parker.

poverty, race, and math

Here’s some math on U.S. poverty.

  • from Census.gov: estimated U.S. population on July 1, 2019: 328,240,000
    • “Black or African American alone, percent”: 13.4% (this works out to 43,984,000, rounding all numbers to the nearest 1,000)
    • “White alone, percent”: 76.3% (this works out to 250,447,000)
  • from Urban Institute: U.S. poverty rate in 2021, all races: 13.7% (44,969,000)
    • Black poverty rate: 18.1% (7,961,000)
    • White poverty rate: 9.6% (24,043,000)

A few points/opinions, which I hope will not be too controversial.

  • A long history of legal and institutional racism in the U.S. is an obvious fact, a moral outrage, and needs to be corrected, particularly in housing and education.
  • A greater fraction of the black population is poor compared to the white population.
  • There are more poor white people than poor black people in the country.
  • You have to be careful comparing averages between groups of very different sizes.
  • From a moral perspective, if you want to help the most people, you would not only help black people. You would try to help people who need help in both groups, while trying to even out the disparities.
  • From a political perspective, an incessant focus on race, and rhetoric equating race and poverty, is going to turn off a lot of poor white voters. This ends up electing politicians who are not going to help poor people of either race.
  • There are other races, there are many mixes of races, and there are many confusing census questions about whether people consider themselves hispanic instead of or in addition to the other races. I am not a professional demographer, and do not know the absolute best way to handle these issues.

bad things that happen in Philadelphia

Well, as a certain leader said last Tuesday (I am writing on Friday, October 2), bad things happen in Philadelphia. Like several people getting shot every day. And it’s happening in cities all over the country. There are all kinds of debates about what is causing it, but what I see is escalating cycles of revenge and counter-revenge among young men in certain neighborhoods. Add in a culture that glorifies gun violence, and what could have been fist fights in more innocent times becomes fatal. Add in lack of education and economic opportunity which leads young men to get involved in the illegal drug trade to earn a living. The fact that drugs are illegal is what makes them valuable enough that young men can earn a living by getting involved. The fact that they are illegal means turning to the civil authorities to settle disputes is not an option. Add in violent repression by said civil authorities. Now you have a self-perpetuating and escalating cycle of violence. In a cycle, there is no true “root cause”. What you need to do is de-escalate the cycle of violence. The good news is you can tackle any link in the cycle. You can try to tackle the culture that glorifies violence by reaching out to young men at risk, providing better role models, reaching them at school, etc. You can try to do something about the guns. That all sounds good but the evidence is mixed. You can try to break the cycle by tackling child care, education, and economic opportunity. That is admirable, it is important, it is absolutely necessary, but it is a long, long game and you have to be prepared to stay at it for a long, long time before you see results. You can try to break a cycle quickly by tackling its weakest link. In a much shorter time frame, you can de-escalate the violence by taking away the value of the drugs. Just legalize them, and they will not be so valuable. Victims of violence will be able to turn to the civil authorities, without fear that they themselves will be punished. Drug addiction may increase and may cause suffering that wouldn’t have occurred before. This is a problem for the health care system, both physical health and mental health. Well, let’s get that figured out, but that is another long, long game…

Health care. Child care. Education. And goddamnit, LEGALIZE DRUGS NOW!!!

more jobs doesn’t lessen poverty?

This article digs into a study on correlations between poverty, job creation and social mobility (along with several other factors). Unfortunately, just creating new jobs in low-income areas didn’t seem to increase the chances of children moving up the economic ladder compared to their parents. However, living or moving to a neighborhood where most people are employed does increase the chances of a child moving up the economic ladder compared to their parents.

It’s puzzling. The explanation that is easy to jump to is that cultural factors are very important and can’t be changed overnight. I’m sure there is some truth to that. I can think of other potential factors though – maybe parents in low income areas are taking those jobs, but whatever extra income they are pulling in is not enough to offset spending less time with their children. Maybe they are more likely to be single parents, lack extended family support, struggle with substance abuse and mental illness, not be able to afford high quality health care and child care, and live in low-performing school districts. Under these circumstances, it wouldn’t be too surprising that their children are not getting ahead. Those middle class professional parents in the neighborhoods where everyone is employed are probably scraping together enough to pay for decent health care and child care, and are probably demanding more from their school systems.

our world in data

This video from OurWorldinData.org is a reminder of how much things have improved for human beings over the past couple centuries or even the past 50 years. It’s a reminder that the disspiriting reversals we are feeling over the past decade or two could be just a bump in the road when you take a longer-term perspective.

However, we shouldn’t just assume that doing more of what we have done in the past 50-200 years is the way to keep the trend going for another 50-200 years, because it may not be. Part of the trend is about a few key technological breakthroughs, such as vaccines, electricity and water disinfection. If we want more of those, we have to invest in R&D, infrastructure and human capital, and we are underinvesting in all of those. Part of the trend was due to mining of natural capital, and fossil fuels in particular. We know that we can’t just keep mining more and dumping more forever without eventually hitting a plateau or worse, triggering a major reversal in our fortunes.

Nonetheless, we should take a moment to celebrate this progress.

best practices in affordable housing

Affordable housing has fairly simple solutions on the surface – build more housing to push down prices, and/or provide people with an income sufficient to afford market rate housing. But it’s so difficult in practice in the United States, and from what I have seen, around the world. Curbed has a round-up of things being tried in the U.S., but I feel like these are tinkering around the edges of a large problem. I am leaning more and more toward the idea of providing people with an income (preferably by providing them with job skills, but by redistributing tax revenue of necessary) so that they can afford to choose among the options available.

  • revolving loan funds to renovate vacant apartments
  • bonus equity paid to low-income renters, sort of like reward points they can use for a down-payment on a home (this assumes owning is better than renting, which it might not be if all the twisted tax incentives, zoning restrictions and homeowner covenants were removed. In other words, saving is great but converting those savings to home equity is not automatically the best financial move for every family. In other words, maybe helping lower-income families to build financial assets they can use for whatever they need ultimately would be the best policy.)
  • mixed use, green building and transit-friendly development – all great but I am not immediately clear how this helps create affordable housing, other than bumping up supply slowly and gradually
  • non-profits and governments just straight-up renting homes and putting homeless people in them
  • coordinated national housing policy (but this is in Canada, not the U.S.)

ending welfare as we knew it

Washington Monthly has an interesting post on Bill Clinton’s welfare reforms. I admit, even though I lived through it I didn’t know much more than the sound bite version. The fuller version is that while he did allow Congress to drastically scale back welfare as it was known at the time, which was cash assistance to poor families with relatively few strings attached, he drastically scaled up the earned income tax credit, which ended up helping more people. The article ends by making an interesting case that the debate has actually shifted somewhat to the left since the 1990s, and there is actually somewhat of a bipartisan consensus that more is needed to fight poverty and help the poor develop job skills. At the same time, the poverty rate among children and minority children in particular is still shameful.

 

What did happen is that Clinton seized on one element of the conservative welfare reform agenda – work – and used it as leverage to create the broadest expansion of federal spending on poverty reduction since the New Deal. Welfare recipients should work, Clinton agreed, and the 1996 legislation set both a five-year time limit on benefits and imposed, for the first time ever, a requirement that recipients work to receive aid.

But Clinton also argued government’s obligation to “make work pay.” “No one who works full time and has children in the home should live in poverty,” said Clinton in 1996. It was a bargain that would win over the public, which soon shed its appetite for punishing the poor that conservatives had done their best to encourage. It also enabled Clinton to push through his ambitious agenda of new programs aimed at helping the working poor.

Clinton’s biggest win was the expansion of the EITC, which was framed as a precondition to passing welfare reform and which Congress passed in 1993. Today, the EITC is the federal government’s largest anti-poverty program, delivering $63 billion in benefits a year to nearly 28 million families. This makes it nearly four times the size of the federal block grants under Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) – the successor to AFDC. Researchers credit the EITC for dramatically increasing workforce participation for lower-income women (more so than the reform of AFDC). According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the EITC lifted 9.4 million people in working households out of poverty in 2013.