Tag Archives: pandemic

July 2024 in Review

Leave a reply

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Joe Biden’s depressing decline in the international spotlight, and our failed political system that could let such a thing happen. Not much more I can say about it that has not been said. The “election trifecta” – non-partisan, single ballot primaries; ranked-choice general elections; and non-partisan redistricting – is one promising proposal for improving this system.

Most hopeful story: A universal flu vaccine may be close, the same technology might work for other diseases like Covid, HIV, and tuberculosis.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Maybe we could replace congress with AI agents working tirelessly on behalf of us voters. Or maybe we could just have AI agents tirelessly paying attention to what the humans we have elected are doing, and communicating in both directions.

what’s new with a universal flu vaccine

Leave a reply

This article in technologynetworks.com (which is new to me) says a universal flu vaccine could be here within five years.

Researchers reported that six of 11 nonhuman primates inoculated against the virus that circulated a century ago — the 1918 flu — survived exposure to one of the deadliest viruses in the world today, H5N1. In contrast, a control group of six unvaccinated nonhuman primates exposed to the H5N1 virus succumbed to the disease.

Sacha said he believes the platform “absolutely” could be useful against other mutating viruses, including SARS-CoV-2…

This approach harnesses a vaccine platform previously developed by scientists at OHSU to fight HIV and tuberculosis, and, in fact, is already being used in a clinical trial against HIV.

I feel sorry for the 11 monkeys (chimps?) who gave their lives for this research. But getting rid of flu, Covid, HIV and tuberculosis certainly sounds pretty good. I’m a little confused about why H5N1 is so lethal in these monkeys – is this the same virus causing mild symptoms and no deaths (so far) in cows and a few humans?

cows…chickens…welcome to The Far Side

Leave a reply

Potential Pathways of Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A/H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b Across Dairy Farms in the United States

Recent outbreaks in US dairy farms, underscore the urgent need to understand the transmission pathways. The study aimed to evaluate the modes of introduction and transmission to dairy farms, through geospatial and exposure analyses. Our findings favour a singular introduction over multiple independent introductions, with non-waterfowl species exhibiting the highest dairy farm exposure, which is a major shift from historical waterfowl spread. Moreover, bidirectional spread between cattle and poultry highlights the intricate nature of disease transmission within the agricultural ecosystem.

medrxiv.org

just…can’t…resist…

https://philcomer.blogspot.com/2010/11/chicken-goes-in-bar-by-phil-comer.html

once more, the lab leak hypothesis

Leave a reply

Intercept tries to explain the recent developments on the lab leak hypothesis, but it still leaves me a bit confused. Here are the facts as I understand them:

  • In 2018, Chinese scientist Shi Zhengli, along with two U.S.-based scientists, together submitted a proposal to U.S. Department of Defense DARPA specifically about inserting a “furin cleavage site” into coronaviruses. Covid-19 has just such a furin cleavage site. This research proposal was not funded by DARPA. Shi Zhengli was known “for her work extracting samples of viruses from bats in Chinese caves”.
  • A Chinese national named Ben Hu received funding from USAID and the National Institutes of Health in 2018-2020. There were three grants in total, two of which ran from 2014-2019 and one of which was cut short in 2020 after intervention by Donald Trump. This funding “potentially” involved the furin cleavage site, but from this article at least there does not seem to be conclusive evidence.
  • The Wuhan Institute was “known for” experimenting on coronaviruses “alongside” scientists employed by the Chinese military. The article does not make any claims that Shi Zhengli or Ben Hu were employed by the Chinese military.
  • Three Wuhan Institute of Virology researchers, including Ben Hu, were hospitalized with Covid-19-like symptoms in November 2019.
  • Two investigators from the U.S. State Department spoke to “two researchers working at a US laboratory who were collaborating with the Wuhan institute at the time of the outbreak”. These sources stated that “Wuhan scientists had inserted furin cleavage sites into viruses in 2019 in exactly the way proposed in Daszak’s failed funding application to Darpa”.

So, there’s a fair amount of circumstantial evidence and second- or third-hand eyewitness accounts here. And the U.S. State Department is not averse to twisting facts to fit a narrative it thinks is in the U.S. national interest. Nonetheless, there are an awful lot of coincidences here. Maybe the U.S. government would like to pin this on the Chinese government, but there is a certain irony if they managed to f— over all of humanity together. And this would be the first plague unleashed on international humanity as a result of biological engineering.

Gary Larson, The Far Side

March 2023 in Review

1 Reply

Well, I’ve finally done it to myself. My posting rate has flagged because I have overshot the limits of how much one person can reasonably do between work, family, school, and life. You can overshoot the limits for awhile, even quite a while, but eventually you pay that debt in the form of burnout at a minimum, and mental and physical and social difficulties if you wait too long to address it. Not to worry, in the medium term this problem is solvable and I will solve it. Because reading, thinking, writing, and then more thinking (mostly in that order) or very important to me. Anyway, here are some picks from the posts I did manage to make in February.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: The Covid-19 “lab leak hypothesis” is still out there. Is this even news? I’m not sure. But what is frightening to me is that deadly natural and engineered pathogens are being worked with in labs, and they almost inevitably will escape or be released intentionally to threaten us all at some point. It’s like nuclear proliferation, accidents, and terrorism – we have had a lot of near misses and a lot of luck over the last 70 years or so. Can we afford the same with biological threats (not to mention nuclear threats) – I think no. Are we doing enough as a civilization to mitigate this civilization-ending threat? I think almost certainly, obviously not. What are we doing? What are we thinking?

Most hopeful story: Just stop your motor vehicle and let elephants cross the road when and where they want to. Seriously, don’t mess with elephants.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Chickie Nobs have arrived!

February 2023 in Review

Leave a reply

Sorry to all my faithful readers worldwide (who I could undoubtedly count with the fingers of one hand with some left over) for my lengthy posting gap. Anyway, let’s have a look at what I was thinking about in February.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Pfizer says they are not doing gain of function research on potential extinction viruses. But they totally could if they wanted to. And this at a time when the “lab leak hypothesis” is peeking out from the headlines again. I also became concerned about bird flu, then managed to convince myself that maybe it is not a huge risk at the moment, but definitely a significant risk over time.

Most hopeful story: Jimmy Carter is still alive as I write this. The vision for peace he laid out in his 2002 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech is well worth a read today. “To suggest that war can prevent war is a base play on words and a despicable form of warmongering. The objective of any who sincerely believe in peace clearly must be to exhaust every honorable recourse in the effort to save the peace. The world has had ample evidence that war begets only conditions that beget further war.”

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: It was slim pickings this month, but Jupiter affects the Sun’s orbit, just a little bit.

more on bird flu

Leave a reply

A particularly concerning form of bird flu has now decimated poultry and spread to wild birds in many different parts of the world.

The current clade of H5N1 virus, called clade 2.3.4.4b, appears well-adapted to spread efficiently among wild birds and poultry in many regions of the world and was first identified in wild birds in the United States in January 2022. Since then, this current clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI A(H5N1) virus has been detected in wild birds in all 50 states and has caused bird outbreaks in 47 states affecting more than 58 million commercial poultry and backyard flocks.

CDC

The current strain is contagious to humans only when they have very close contact with live birds, according to CDC. However, there is concern now that it may have mutated and developed an ability to spread in mammals, including farmed mink in Spain and possibly wild sea otters in Peru.

The CDC says the mink are particularly susceptible and the spread of the virus in mink does not indicate an increased likelihood of spread among humans. They say a candidate vaccine has already been developed and could be produced quickly if needed.

I don’t trust the CDC as much as I did before Covid-19. However, this flu virus seems to be exactly what they were preparing for when they got blind-sided by Covid, so hopefully they would be better prepared for this.

This editorial in Science also takes aim at USDA and the Fish and Wildlife Service.

More zoonotic diseases originated in the United States than in any other country during the second half of the 20th century… The ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak has left 58 million animals dead in backyard chicken coops and industrial farms. It has infected animals in one of the dozens of live poultry markets in New York City (elsewhere called “wet markets”)…

Since 2011, the US has recorded more swine-origin influenza infections than any other country. Most occurred at state and county fairs, where an estimated 18% of swine have tested positive. These fairs attract 150 million visitors each year. In 2012, H3N2v influenza jumped from pigs to humans at livestock exhibitions and infected 306 people across 10 states, with suspected human-to-human transmission…

Each year, the US consumes an estimated 1 billion pounds of “game” (elsewhere called “bushmeat”). Yet, most hunter-harvested meat is not inspected, and no sanitary measures are required. Avian influenza has spread from wild birds to hunters and also appeared in captive game farms, where 40 million birds are raised annually. Three million mink live on US fur farms in long rows of wire cages where their waste falls onto the floor or onto other animals below…

The US is the largest importer of wildlife in the world. More than 200 million live wild animals enter the US each year, most undergoing no health and safety checks when they arrive.

Science

These facts and figures surprised me. Routine contact between people and domestic and wild animals is not just something that happens outside the U.S., it is happening here every day.