Here’s my “official” take on the U.S. election for September 1. Sure, I admit I look at the polls almost every day. But I figure writing down the numbers and puzzling over them a bit once a month helps me to filter out some of the noise. So here goes. I still lean on the “Silver” numbers as probably reflecting the most well-thought-out adjustments of poll numbers to something close to reality. The 538 numbers are interesting to give a sense of how much small decisions about these adjustments matter, and the RCP numbers show what unadjusted (i.e., heavily biased) numbers would look like.

STATE	2020 RESULT	Silver Bulletin (August 1)	Silver Bulletin (September 1)	538 (September 1)	RCP (September 1)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Trump +2.7%	Trump +0.6%	Harris +0.3%	Trump +0.5%
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Trump +2.2%	Harris +0.9%	Harris +0.5%	Trump +0.2%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Harris +0.4%	Harris +3.2%	Harris +3.2%	Harris +1.4%
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Trump +2.2%	Trump +0.4%	Trump +0.3%	Trump +0.6%
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Trump +0.2%	Harris +1.3%	Harris +1.2%	Harris +0.5%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Harris +2.6%	Harris +1.9%	Harris +2.4%	Harris +1.1%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Trump +2.2%	Harris +0.9%	Harris +0.7%	TIE

So going with the Silver numbers, the electoral college would be Harris 292, Trump 246.

Both Arizona and North Carolina have been in the Harris column during the month of August and flipped back over, while the numbers in Pennsylvania (>:-() seem like they might have tightened over the past two weeks. On the other hand, Georgia and Nevada are huge wins for the Harris campaign if they come through. Move Nevada and Georgia back into the Trump column and Harris still wins 270-268, with recount hilarity likely to ensue of course. This happens to match the RCP polling results above, if you give the Nevada tie to Trump. Surprisingly, she could lose Pennsylvania and still win the electoral college if everything else in the map above were to hold. But these things tend to be correlated and any event that moved Pennsylvania a whole point toward Trump would tend to move other states too. Unless we are talking some serious voter suppression or outright cheating by people in Harrisburg with pointy white hats in the back of their closets.

In the betting markets, PredictIt has Harris at a 56% chance of winning (the electoral college) vs. 47% for Trump (well actually $0.56 to $0.47 with about $0.08 given to other candidates, so apparently they don’t intend for these to add up close to 100%). Polymarket however has Trump at 51% to 48% for Harris. So whoever is betting on that site thinks they know something the rest of us do not.

So, my overall verdict is things look pretty good for Harris at the moment with two months to go. I think this election is hers to lose.

Well, we’ve gone from an almost unspeakably boring election to a pretty exciting one in just over a month. We had the fateful Biden-Trump debate on June 27, the Trump assassination attempt on July 13, Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race on July 21, and now the Democratic Party seemingly selecting Kamala Harris as its candidate.

Polls are a little crazy. 538 does not seem to be producing its typical weighted polling averages at this point, while Nate Silver’s substack is now posting some weighted polling averages for public consumption. Real Clear Politics unweighted polling averages are…there. One question is whether to include any polls from before July 21 in the averages. I am not going to do any math though, and just report the averages as these two sites are showing them on August 1 in my local time (11 hours ahead of EDT).

STATE	2020 RESULT	538 (TRUMP/BIDEN, July 1)	Silver Bulletin (August 1)	RCP (August 1)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Trump +4.8%	Trump +2.7%	Trump +4.2%
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Trump +6.3%	Trump +2.2%	Trump +3.6%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Trump +0.8%	Harris +0.4%	Trump +0.2%
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Trump +7.3%	Trump +2.2%	Trump +5.5%
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Trump +2.0%	Trump +0.2%	Trump +2.7%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Trump +1.8%	Harris +2.6%	Harris +2.0%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Trump +3.8%	Trump +2.2%	Trump +4.0%

I tend to trust the Nate Silver numbers here, since they are weighted for recency and things have changed very recently. Based on his numbers, the electoral college as it stands today would be Trump 287, Harris 251. So despite Harris’s “momentum”, which the media is playing up because they want us to watch commercials, Trump still has it at this very moment. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is all but tied, and if it goes for Harris the electoral college would be Harris 270, Trump 268.

The momentum is clearly there – there has been a decisive shift toward Harris across the board compared to where Biden was a month ago. On the other hand, she is slightly underperforming Biden 2020 across the board. To me, Harris is a fairly bland center-right Democrat with less baggage than 2024 Biden or 2016 Hillary, so this all makes some sense to me. Being a mixed-race stepmother doesn’t really change my personal impression of her political leadership skills one way or the other, but perhaps it will affect turnout. For what it’s worth Polymarket gives a 55% chance of Trump winning and a 44% chance of Harris winning. Which seems consistent. Predictit seems to be blocked as an online gambling site in the jurisdiction I currently find myself in.

So, maybe more crazy things will happen, or maybe it will come down to economic trends and turnout, like it usually does.