It’s interesting that the U.S. Census is conducted every 10 years, presidential elections are conducted every four years, and census results affect the number of electoral votes apportioned to each state. So the 2020 Census was too late to change electoral votes in the 2020 election, but it has changed them slightly in the 2024 election.

From Newsweek (and I haven’t confirmed this from other sources):

Texas was the biggest gainer, according to the Census numbers that were released in 2021. The Lone Star state gained two more votes in Congress and the Electoral College for the next 10 years. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon also each gained one seat, while California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia lost a seat each.

I count 3 votes shifted from states that voted Democratic in 2020 (Colorado +1, Oregon +1, California -1, Illinois -1, Michigan -1, New York -1, Pennsylvania -1) to states that voted Republican (Texas +2, Florida +1, Montana +1, North Carolina +1, Ohio -1, West Virginia -1).

It doesn’t seem like this will matter in 2024, but with the election possibly coming down to just 2 electoral votes in the Democrats’ favor (if they win Pennsylvania-Michigan-Wisconsin and lose Georgia-North Carolina-Nevada-Arizona), transferring 3 more points after the 2030 census could make all the difference in the 2032 election. But that is pretty far away and a lot of things can change in 8 years. For example, the actual people moving from “blue” to “red” states could take their “blue” politics with them and eventually shift their new state into the blue category or at least the swing state category. Maybe 8 years could be long enough to do away with the idiotic electoral college itself, which was created to convince 18th century slave owners to join a rebellion against an 18th century empire. But no, I am not this optimistic.

Here we go – if I stick to my once a month poll review, there will only be one more just before the election.

STATE	2020 RESULT	Silver Bulletin (September 1)	Silver Bulletin (October 1)	538 (October 1)	RCP (October 1)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Trump +0.6%	Trump +1.5%	Trump +1.5%	Trump +2.1%
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Harris +0.9%	Trump +1.0%	Trump +1.3%	Trump +1.5%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Harris +3.2%	Harris +1.9%	Harris +1.6%	Harris +0.6%
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Trump +0.4%	Trump +0.5%	Trump +0.7%	Trump +0.7%
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Harris +1.3%	Harris +1.2%	Harris +0.6%	Trump +0.1%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Harris +1.9%	Harris +2.1%	Harris +1.9%	Harris +1.4%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Harris +0.9%	Harris +1.8%	Harris +1.0%	Harris +1.1%

The first thing that stands out is there is no disagreement between the weighted poll averages (Silver and 538) on the more likely winner of each state. They also agree with the RCP unweighted average with the exception of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania just looks dangerously close, with a 1% polling bias towards Harris (vs. how people in the state end up voting) making it a tossup. Still, you would rather have that polling average in your favor than against you. The difference between the weighted averages and RCP suggest that there either a lot of polls of Pennsylvania voters that the weighters consider Republican-biased garbage, a big recent trend toward Harris in Pennsylvania (because they rate more recent polls higher), or a combination. I can tell you from personal experience that the Democratic get-out-the-vote operation in my home city of Philadelphia is in hyperdrive, but I also assume the Republicans equivalent is in hyperdrive in Republican-leaning counties (like my old home county of Luzerne in Northeast Pennsylvania.)

If the polls are reasonably accurate, Georgia and Arizona might be moving out of Harris’s reach, and it is hard to believe North Carolina and Georgia are that culturally different (think about the Charlanta mega suburban sprawl cluster-f which is basically one thing).

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she seems likely to win Wisconsin and Michigan and the electoral vote as a whole. Nevada would pad the score a bit for Harris, but it would not offset the loss of Pennsylvania.

Polymarket gives Harris 50% to 48% odds. Predict prices her at 56 cents to Trump at 48 cents, with other candidates given about 8 cents.

So all the signs kind of point to Harris, but if there is a systematic error of 1-2%, Trump could still pull it out.

Here’s where we stand as I write this on February 4, 2024. Most of the polling averages now include some polls conducted in January.

STATE	2020 RESULT	Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 2/4/24)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Trump +4.5%
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Trump +7.2%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Trump +0.2%
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Trump +5.4% (RCP doesn’t provide this average but I have averaged the ones they provide, some of which are quite old)
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Biden +0.3%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Trump +5.1%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Trump +7.0%

It is not hard to figure this out from the above numbers, but if I make a customized electoral college map on 270towin.com, the picture is awful for Biden, with 293 Trump electoral votes to 245 for Biden.

The “538 Politics Podcast” generally has been much reduced in quality post-Nate Silver and post-ABC buyout, but they did have this interesting episode (actually – I can’t figure out how to link directly to it, this is how shitty their website is now – but search for “How Americans feel about the economy”) recently about research on how peoples’ shock over episodes of inflation “decay” over time. Basically, the shock declines by about 50% of the remaining amount over the course of a year. So, even though the rate of price increase has declined, we are now feeling about 50% of the shock from the shocking inflation of 2022. By the November election, we will be feeling about 25% of the shock. Is this enough to count on? Certainly not, but even to realize this the economy needs to stay as good as it is now for the next nine months, and inflation needs to not go back up again.

With the Iowa Republican caucus in the books as I write this (Tuesday, January 16, 2024), stuff is starting to get real.

It seems like barring unforeseen major developments, we are headed for another Biden vs. Trump election. In the absence of any other information, I would just say look at what happened last time. Biden won pretty handily, and really nothing major has changed in any rational sense, except that there hasn’t been a recession, war, or pandemic (that has affected the vast majority of the U.S. public significantly). What there has been is inflation, and not just inflation but inflation following a long period of no inflation in many voters’ living memories. And that seems to me to be the one thing making the difference for Biden. There is just nothing else that makes sense to me.

Anyway, tiresome as it gets, we know it comes down to the “battleground states”. There were three states in 2020 with a voting margin of less than 1% (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin), two within 1-2% (North Carolina and Pennsylvania), and two within 2-3% (Michigan and Nevada). That’s it – no, Florida and Ohio were not close. 7 states that matter out of 50 and some territories. I got these numbers from CNN.

Sure, it’s early to start looking at state-level general election polls. Sure, there are all sorts of problems with polls. Sure, other candidates could theoretically be nominated. Sure, third party candidates could affect the race. But the numbers below are at least averages of several polls over a period of time which might smooth out at least some biases, and they paint a consistent and deeply worrying picture for Biden at this stage.

STATE	2020 RESULT	Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 1/16/24)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Not Available
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Trump +6.6%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Not Available
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Not Available
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Trump +0.3%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Trump +5.3%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Trump +5.4%

I’ll try to update this from time to time. If I were much smarter, I would try to automate it. Well, I would like to think I am smart enough to figure that out, but it is just not close to the top of my project list.