Tag Archives: bill gates

January 2024 in Review

Leave a reply

Most frightening and/or depressing story: 2023 was “a year of war“, and so far 2024 is not looking better. Those diplomatic grand bargains you always hear about seem to be getting less grand. And the drumbeat for a U.S. attack on Iran got louder.

Most hopeful story: According to Bill Gates, some bright spots in the world today include gains in administering vaccines to children around the world, a shift toward greater public acceptance of nuclear power, and maybe getting a bit closer to the dream of fusion power. He pontificates about AI, and my personal sense is it is still too soon, but AI does hold some promise for speeding up scientific progress.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: The return of super-sonic commercial flight is inching closer.

Bill Gates on 2023

Leave a reply

Bill Gates’s year-end retrospective is kind of rambling but here are a few points I pulled out:

  1. Lots more vaccines were administered to children in developing countries using new technologies and new delivery methods. This has made a big difference in child mortality, and that is always a happy thing. He doesn’t really go into details on the new technologies, but I am imagining things like nasal sprays rather than needles, and vaccines that don’t require refrigeration or not as much. And sometimes we just figure out how to make familiar things but make them much cheaper, and this can make a huge difference. Which would illustrate that important technologies don’t have to seem extremely complicated and high-tech to have a big impact.
  2. On the AI front, he says it will accelerate drug development, including solutions for antibiotic resistance. I don’t doubt this, although I suspect the hype has gotten a bit ahead of the rollout. So I would look for this over the next half-decade or so rather than expecting it to burst on the scene in 2024. Bill actually predicts “18–24 months away from significant levels of AI use by the general population”.
  3. He talks about AI tutors for students. I don’t want to be a Luddite, but I am concerned this will just mean less teachers per student, which will be bad.
  4. Maybe AI can just get our medical records under control. This would be nice. Transparent, common protocols for how medical records should be formatted, stored, and shared could also do this though. I can someday hope robots will constantly clean up and organize my messy house as I just throw my things everywhere, or I could organize my house (which would take a big effort once) and keep it that way (which would take small, disciplined daily efforts).
  5. Gut microbiome-based medicine. Sounds good, I guess. Then again, whenever we try to replace nutritious whole foods with highly manufactured alternatives (vitamin pills, baby formula) we tend to decide later that we should have stuck with the whole foods.
  6. “a major shift toward overall acceptance of nuclear” power. Well, it’s been pretty obvious to me for a long time that this had to happen, but maybe the world is catching up. Nuclear could certainly have been the bridge fuel to renewables if we had fully adopted it decades ago. The question now is whether, given its incredibly long time frames to get up and running and the fact that any technology is obsolete by the time it is up and running, and the current pace of renewables, it still makes sense. I definitely think we should put some eggs in this basket though.
  7. He mentions the fusion breakthrough at Lawrence Livermore about a year ago. It’s been a year and we haven’t heard much more – is the time to refine and rollout that technology going to be measured in years, decades, or never?
  8. He talks about the need for more investment in electric grids and transmission lines. Yes, this is unsexy but really needs to happen. Will it?

5 of Bill Gates’s Favorite Books

Leave a reply

I guess this qualifies as my first “best of” post for 2022. It’s a bit weak though. Bill Gates, instead of picking his five favorite books that came out during the year, picked five books that he recommended to somebody during the year. He picked Heinlein’s Stranger in a Strange Land as the “best introduction to grownup sci-fi”, which I take to mean sci-fi books for people who don’t have enough imagine to consider reading sci-fi, but might enjoy it if they try. This is not one of my favorite sci-fi books. About all I remember is a swimming pool supposedly somewhere in the Poconos, and the audiobook reader inexplicably giving a key character supposedly from the Poconos and southern accent. Don’t get me wrong, it’s an okay book, but even if I were restricting myself to Heinlein I might pick something else, like Starship Troopers, which some “serious” people have at least heard of (and to be fair, Billy G. mentions in his post). How about Vernor Vinge’s Rainbow’s End, which depicts a plausible near-future and is extremely entertaining and mind-blowing.

The only other book I’ll mention is a biography of Abraham Lincoln, which might be interesting. Still, this list don’t impress me much. I’m thinking old Billy Gates just didn’t do a lot of reading this year. Can’t he pay people to give him the Cliff’s Notes? (Considering he has more money than any particular gods, couldn’t he track down Cliff himself? Well, I looked this up and Cliff was Clifton K. Hillegass, and he died in 2001.)

more from Bill Gates on coronavirus

Leave a reply

You can still decide for yourself if Bill Gates is someone we should listen to on coronavirus. But he sounds cautiously optimistic, at least when it comes to developed Asia and the U.S.

[Someone asking Bill a question on Reddit: ]I read the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report as well as this explanation in a historical context. Essentially, it says that by doing nothing, 4 million Americans die. Through the mitigation strategy—i.e. social distancing and “flattening the curve”— it says that 1.1-2 million Americans will die. However, it also says that the suppression strategy, or “shutting everything down for 18 months”—will lead to only a few thousand people dying...

[Bill’s answer: ]Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their “shut down” and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience…

China is seeing very few cases now because their testing and “shut down” was very effective. If a country does a good job with testing and “shut down” then within 6-10 weeks they should see very few cases and be able to open back up…

Gates Notes

more lists from 2018 – science, technology, risks

Leave a reply

Here are a couple more lists from 2018.

“5 biggest scientific breakthroughs” from The Week:

  • cloning monkeys
  • new evidence for (past?) microbial life on Mars
  • ability to walk restored to paraplegics
  • gene therapy successes to treat muscular dystrophy (so far, in dogs)
  • witnessing the birth of a new planet

From Bill Gates:

  • “we are also going to be focusing more on improving the quality of life… For example, software will be able to notice when you’re feeling down, connect you with your friends, give you personalized tips for sleeping and eating better, and help you use your time more efficiently.”
  • research breakthroughs on Alzheimer’s disease
  • some setbacks on polio eradication, but also promising new vaccination approaches
  • He is a skeptic on battery storage for solar and wind power, and a proponent of nuclear, where he is concerned the U.S. has lost its leadership position. “TerraPower, the company I started 10 years ago, uses an approach called a traveling wave reactor that is safe, prevents proliferation, and produces very little waste.”
  • He’s afraid of a big epidemic. Well, who isn’t if they’ve been paying attention?
  • breakthroughs and ethical concerns in gene editing
  • balance between privacy and innovation
  • technology in education

Bill Gates’s Blog

Leave a reply

New York Times has an interesting post on Bill Gates’s blog. He claims to read 50 books a year. That’s…let me get my calculator…about a book a week. And then he blogs about them.

this year I enjoyed Richard Dawkins’s “The Magic of Reality,” which explains various scientific ideas and is aimed at teenagers. Although I already understood all the concepts, Dawkins helped me think about the topics in new ways. If you can’t explain something simply, you don’t really understand it…

Some, like Randall Munroe’s “Thing Explainer,” are written exactly for that reason. He uses diagrams paired with the most common 1,000 words in the English language to explain complicated ideas…

I like highlighting the work of Vaclav Smil. He has written more than 30 books, and I have read them all. He takes on huge topics like energy or transportation and gives them a thorough examination.