Tag Archives: climate change

August 2021 in Review

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Most frightening and/or depressing story: The U.S. is not prepared for megadisasters. Pandemics, just to cite one example. War and climate change tipping points, just to cite two others. Solutions or at least risk mitigation measures exist, such as getting a health care system, joining the worldwide effort to deal with carbon emissions, and as for war, how about just try to avoid it?

Most hopeful story: The Nordic welfare model works by providing excellent benefits to the middle class, which builds the public and political support to collect sufficient taxes to provide the benefits, and so on in a virtuous cycle. This is not a hopeful story for the U.S., where wealthy and powerful interests easily break the cycle with anti-tax propaganda, which ensure benefits are underfunded, inadequate, available only to the poor, and resented by middle class tax payers.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Ectogenesis is an idea for colonizing other planets that involves freezing embryos and putting them on a spaceship along with robots to thaw them out and raise them. Fungi could also be very useful in space, providing food, medicine, and building materials.

the new IPCC physical science basis for we’re fucked

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I suppose I have to say something about the new IPCC science report that came out this week (I’m writing on Thursday, August 12). It’s easy to find summaries of it from actual journalists in the media, for example this one from the AP.

I’ve only read the summary for policy makers. I have the best intentions to read the full report, but then I had the best intentions to read the last 16 IPCC reports, not to mention the proliferating ecosystem and biodiversity reports. Anyway, if you don’t mind a collection of random observations, here are a handful of things that caught my eye:

  • The graphics are kind of nice. If you are trying to communicate science-y or tech-y things to general audiences, they are worth a glance.
  • If we stopped emitting carbon emissions today, the earth would continue to warm for decades, if not centuries or millennia. This means the effects we are feeling right now were caused by emissions decades ago. Emissions have not only continued for decades, but they have accelerated. Things are going to continue to get worse, and probably not linearly but exponentially. If we drastically cut emissions today, the results would be detectable in about 20 years or so. The Earth is a dynamic system with lags and feedback loops.
  • Warming of about 1.5 degrees C (I don’t know how to make a degree symbol in WordPress) would be considered a great outcome. The Earth has already warmed by about 1.0 degrees as of right now (2019 actually).
  • Human activity is the overwhelming cause of warming. Come on, don’t be stupid. Natural factors exist but they are small compared to the human activity.
  • One thing that did surprise me is that scientists are pretty sure that human-caused air pollution has had a significant retarding (using this word in the scientific/musical sense of slowing something down) effect on global warming. But again, more than overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of burning, burning, burning with reckless abandon for centuries now.
  • Scientists are very sure human activity is driving massive ice loss in the Arctic. They are only kind of medium sure it is the main driver in the Antarctic.
  • So what is a good place to live? Well, central and eastern North America are some of the only regions are Earth that are not unequivocally hotter already, meaning scientists disagree on whether they are or not. They are more at risk of flooding though, along with most of Asia. Drought is biting harder in western North America, parts of Europe, Central Asia, Africa, and southern Australia than elsewhere.
  • There are five scenarios in this report. They are called SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.

Compared to 1850–1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1-1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5)24. The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 was over 3 million years ago (medium confidence).

IPCC
  • Coastal property may not be a good investment.
  • Scientists are divided on the tipping point theories involving the global meridional circulation. They agree it is going to weaken though. The tipping point collapse scenarios “can’t be ruled out and are part of risk assessment”. Ha – risk assessment language might say something like “unknown but non-zero probability, existential threat”.
  • The report provides a remaining carbon budget that could be used for policy making, depending on the end point the world would like to target.

what to do about the U.S. electric grid

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Actually, it’s pretty simple. To deal with climate change, we need to electrify everything, bring lots and lots of renewable energy sources online, and have a grid that can handle them. Renewables are intermittent and unreliable locally, the cynics tell us, but in a big country they are always online somewhere. Our 50-year-old duct-taped together grid isn’t up to the task of getting enough electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed. Permitting, NIMBYism, and our antiquated system of semi-sovereign states are all part of the problem. But also, we just need to throw tons of money at this. The current administration and dysfunctional legislature are maybe considering a small “downpayment” that is the most they consider politically possible. Meanwhile, Asia is running rings around us, not that it is a competition.

Blah blah blah the statistics continue to tell a clear story of U.S. decline. I’m not sure how long I can keep this up – the problem is diagnosed, solutions exist and it is time to take action.

Other countries are zipping ahead in this area. China has emerged as the world’s clear leader in high-voltage transmission, building tens of thousands of miles of these lines to connect its power plants with cities across the vast nation. But while China developed 260 gigawatts of transmission capacity between 2014 and 2021, all of North America added just seven, according to a survey conducted by Iowa State University.

MIT Technology Review

This seems slightly unfair – we had a significant head start on China I would assume, so we might not need to build as much new infrastructure as they do. But this head starter is a driver of our complacency – we have been coasting on past investments for a long time, and we are running out of gas…er, juice. (This reminds me of a Chinese friend asking me once why Americans refer to electricity as “juice”, and I didn’t and still don’t have a good answer.)

early warning of Gulf Stream collapse?

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There has been plenty of hypothesizing that global warming could cause destabilization of key ocean currents that have determined the character of the world’s regional climates over the last few millennia or so, i.e. human history. This new paper is the first I am aware of (but I am not even close to an expert on this subject or oceanography more generally) to find empirical evidence that the the AMOC current (which I believe includes the Gulf Stream) could be nearing a tipping point.

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

Nature Climate Change

This would seem to have major consequences to (1) where and how much food we can grow in the world, and (2) the location of our actual physical coastlines and the coastal cities that house much of the world’s human population. Adjusting to gradual long-term changes in these things will be a challenge. A sudden, major shift might be something our civilization can’t adjust to. The consequences are unimaginably dire. The risk is unknown but this study suggests it is real. Logic and risk management principles suggest that we need to be cautious here and actually do what we can to avoid this. Let’s hope “a point close to a critical transition” is not really all that close in human terms, and we have time for our civilization, with its flawed geopolitical and economic systems, to come to its senses.

what Europe and China are doing on carbon emissions

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Well, the EU is apparently instituting a “carbon border tax”.

The EU plan is controversial because it contains an extra-territorial dimension – the much-foreshadowed and very controversial carbon border tax that would impose a carbon tax on imports from countries with lesser emissions reduction targets and carbon prices…

The EU already has arguably the world’s most ambitious response to climate change. It launched its emissions trading system in 2005 and has reduced its emissions, from 1990 levels, by nearly 25 per cent.

Sydney Morning Herald

Not all industries have been covered by the emissions trading scheme, but going forward the system would add steelmakers, power generators, shipping, transport, buildings, carmakers and eventually agriculture to some extent.

Meanwhile, China is starting a new emissions trading scheme, and the U.S. Congress is at least talking again about some kind of carbon pricing, trading, and/or border tax. If all this happens, it would cover a lot of the world’s people, economic production, and pollutant production. I suppose developing countries could be at a disadvantage initially if they can’t continue to grow by expanding dirty industries, but in theory the clean technologies and processes that will result should filter through to them. They certainly will not be well-served by a world of famines, fires, and floods that will result if nothing is done.

July 2021 in Review

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July 2021 is in the books. In current events (I’m writing on Sunday, August 1), the Delta variant of Covid is now ripping through the unvaccinated population in the U.S. and predictably leaking out into the vaccinated population. I wasn’t too focused on Covid in July though, looking at the posts I have chosen below.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: The western-U.S. megadrought looks like it is settling in for the long haul.

Most hopeful story: A new Lyme disease vaccine may be on the horizon (if you’re a human – if you are a dog, talk to your owner about getting the approved vaccine today.) I admit, I had to stretch a bit to find a positive story this month.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: “Cliodynamics” is an attempt at a structured, evidence-based way to test hypotheses about history.

western U.S. mega-drought

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blog.weather.us has a nice three-part article on the hydrometeorology behind the severe and likely long-term drought affecting the western U.S. I’ll admit I haven’t had time to read every word, but it looks to be well worth the read. It’s complicated if you want to get into the details, but it pretty much boils down to less rain and more evaporation.

I remember going to an American Water Resources Association specialty conference on climate change around 2011 or 2012, and listening to a speaker from Australia. The person showed data clearly showing that annual rainfall had slowly declined over the course of a decade or more and settled at a new normal. It took the political system there about a decade to accept the situation and begin to address it. The U.S. may be about where Australia was 10-15 years ago, but that is in a context of global trends that have been going downhill during that time.

I figure the west will turn to conservation and, if necessary, desalination to supply drinking water to large urban populations. Fires will just have to be accepted and dealt with. It seems to me that the long-term viability of agriculture in California and maybe across the Great Plains is in doubt, as the loss of rainfall and increased evaporation happen alongside loss of mountain ice and snowpack, and alongside a century of groundwater mining. Maybe we can move more agricultural indoors, maybe to coastal areas served by desalination plants, but we’ll have to harden those coastlines against sea level rise and increasingly severe storms. If all this comes to pass, it will cost a lot more than growing food outside in the sun, soil, and water and nature has provided mostly for free up until now. There is the question of where the energy required will come from. Food prices will go up, and unless our incomes go up along with them we will have less resources to spend on other things, making us poorer. Preservation of natural habitats will not be a priority if such a world comes to pass. And of course, in the United States and many other countries, we do not share the wealth we do have, so the poor and working class will suffer the most. Eventually this will lead to migration pressure and further strain our political system.

May 2021 in Review

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Most frightening and/or depressing story: The Colorado River basin is drying out.

Most hopeful story: An effective vaccine for malaria may be on the way. Malaria kills more children in Africa every year than Covid-19 killed people of all ages in Africa during the worst year of the pandemic. And malaria has been killing children every year for centuries and will continue long after Covid-19 is gone unless something is done.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: I learned about Lawrence Kohlberg, who had some ideas on the use of moral dilemmas in education.

misleading the public about misleading the public

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Rolling Stone (I admit, maybe not the #1 most prestigious, objective journalistic outlet) goes through the history of companies using propaganda to blame consumers that environmental problems are their fault, from smoking to litter to plastic waste (these last two being related) and now global warming.

Selling deadly poisonous products to children for decades gains you admission to one circle of hell. But decades of deliberate propaganda aimed at intentionally destroying nature and civilization to make a short-term profit? It’s the biggest crime in history.

Colorado River headed for official shortage declaration

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This has been a slow motion crisis a long time coming, but here is how the process apparently works:

  • The Bureau of Reclamation has issued a 24-month forecast indicating that an official shortage declaration is coming. The forecast does not yet prompt any specific requirements or action.
  • The shortage declaration would happen when Lake Mead falls below 1,075 feet (328 meters), projected to happen in June. “That’s the level that prompts a shortage declaration under agreements negotiated by seven states that rely on Colorado River water: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.”
  • Actual changes to reservoir operations would happen in January 2022.

The article says Arizona could “lose one third of its water supply”. This is not a surprise however and there have been some preparations. Arizona and Nevada, along with Mexico, have already agreed to voluntary cuts and started looking into alternative sources and conservation measures.

So, it’s not a good idea to live near a coastline, in a desert, or in a fire prone region. Earthquakes and volcanoes are also best avoided. What is left? Maybe the Great Lakes region and parts of Canada?