Tag Archives: technological progress

DARQ

Accenture has a report on 2019 technology trends, which they call “post-digital”. Post-digital doesn’t mean digital technology is gone, it just means we are kind of over it and it is now the new minimum level of technology that other technologies build on. They also focus on something they call DARQ: “distributed ledger technology (DLT), artificial intelligence (AI), extended reality (XR) and quantum computing.” I had to look up distributed ledger technology – this is basically the same thing as blockchain.

I was curious what they think is going on with quantum computing. They don’t have a lot to say actually, but if you dig into the full report there are a couple paragraphs.

And while quantum computing is the furthest from full maturity and impractical as a current investment for most companies, advances in quantum research are bringing costs down significantly. The number of qubits (the quantum equivalent of a bit in a traditional computer) in leading chips is accelerating: it took 19 years to get from a chip with two qubits to a chip with 17, which IBM achieved in 2017; later that year, IBM bested its own record with 50 qubits, and by 2018, Google had unveiled a chip with 72.9,10 In concert with these advances, Microsoft, Rigetti Computing, 1QBit, and other leaders in quantum research are increasingly making their quantum systems available for experimentation via APIs and software development kits (SDKs, or QDKs).11 These offerings give companies a way to develop and test quantum solutions for specific enterprise use cases today.

Volkswagen has used quantum computing to test traffic flow optimization, as well as to simulate the chemical structure of batteries, hoping to accelerate battery development…

January 2019 in Review

After blogging pretty consistently daily for years, I’ve finally slowed this blog down to every other day due to the realities of work and family. Maybe I’ll get back to daily in a couple years. In the meantime, I’m going to pare my “month in review” posts to highlight three items, because it wouldn’t really make sense to do a Top 9 out of 15.

Most frightening and/or depressing story:

  • Writing in 1984, Isaac Asimov thought we would be approaching world peace, living lives of leisure, children would love school, and we would be mining the moon and manufacturing things in orbital factories by now.

Most hopeful story:

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both:

  • Some in the U.S. Senate and military take UFOs seriously.

 

Asimov’s predictions for 2019

In 1984, Isaac Asimov made a series of predictions about the year 2019.

  • Assumption: No nuclear wars will occur before 2019, which would render all the predictions below moot.
  • Verdict: So far, so good!
  • Prediction: Industry will become increasingly automated, and computers will “penetrate the home”.
  • Verdict: Check!
  • Prediction: Automation will cause some jobs to disappear while others will appear, with a net gain overall. ” The jobs that will appear will, inevitably, involve the design, the manufacture, the installation, the maintenance and repair of computers and robots, and an understanding of whole new industries that these “intelligent” machines will make possible. “
  • Verdict: Some jobs are disappearing and others appearing almost exactly as he predicted, but the jury is still out on the net gain.
  • Prediction: “Schools will undoubtedly still exist, but a good schoolteacher can do no better than to inspire curiosity which an interested student can then satisfy at home at the console of his computer outlet. There will be an opportunity finally for every youngster, and indeed, every person, to learn what he or she wants to learn. in his or her own time, at his or her own speed, in his or her own way. Education will become fun because it will bubble up from within and not be forced in from without.
  • Verdict: This is almost certainly as it should be, but the education system has been slow to adapt.
  • Prediction: “it may well be that the nations will be getting along well enough to allow the planet to live under the faint semblance of a world government by co-operation, even though no one may admit its existence.”
  • Verdict: Again, this is as it should be but not as it is. There are episodes of cooperation, but at the moment this seems to be rowing upstream against a strong current of nationalism and isolationism.
  • Prediction: “more and more human beings will find themselves living a life rich in leisure. This does not mean leisure to do nothing, but leisure to do something one wants to do; to be free to engage in scientific research. in literature and the arts, to pursue out-of-the-way interests and fascinating hobbies of all kinds.”
  • Verdict: This may be true for some, but certainly not for the majority. It could happen if we chose to share the wealth more and/or to live more simply. But again, this is not the direction things are going.
  • Prediction: an international space station
  • Verdict: Check
  • Prediction: moon mining and orbital factories
  • Verdict: This still seems pretty far away, although there are advances in new types of rockets and satellites that could be baby steps in this direction.

more lists from 2018 – science, technology, risks

Here are a couple more lists from 2018.

“5 biggest scientific breakthroughs” from The Week:

  • cloning monkeys
  • new evidence for (past?) microbial life on Mars
  • ability to walk restored to paraplegics
  • gene therapy successes to treat muscular dystrophy (so far, in dogs)
  • witnessing the birth of a new planet

From Bill Gates:

  • “we are also going to be focusing more on improving the quality of life… For example, software will be able to notice when you’re feeling down, connect you with your friends, give you personalized tips for sleeping and eating better, and help you use your time more efficiently.”
  • research breakthroughs on Alzheimer’s disease
  • some setbacks on polio eradication, but also promising new vaccination approaches
  • He is a skeptic on battery storage for solar and wind power, and a proponent of nuclear, where he is concerned the U.S. has lost its leadership position. “TerraPower, the company I started 10 years ago, uses an approach called a traveling wave reactor that is safe, prevents proliferation, and produces very little waste.”
  • He’s afraid of a big epidemic. Well, who isn’t if they’ve been paying attention?
  • breakthroughs and ethical concerns in gene editing
  • balance between privacy and innovation
  • technology in education

Trends in Ecology and Evolution 2018 Horizon Scan

Trends in Ecology and Evolution does an annual “horizon scan” of hot topics for the coming year. Below is their list for this year. The article is open access.

  • “Thiamine Deficiency as a Possible Driver of Wildlife Population Declines” – Thiamine is a form of vitamin B. Pollution and subtle changes in algae eaten by fish and birds may be causing its depletion. This is not fatal in and of itself but may be weakening animals so that they succumb to other things.
  • “Thiamine Deficiency as a Possible Driver of Wildlife Population Declines” – It’s affecting deer, moose, and elk in North America, and now reindeer in northern Europe.
  • “Breaks in the Dormancy of Pathogenic Bacteria and Viruses in Thawing Permafrost” – Some viruses and bacteria may be able to lie dormant in permafrost for thousands of years, long enough for populations of animals and humans to lose their immunity. Permafrost is melting.
  • “RNA-Based, Gene-Silencing Pesticides” – Messing with RNA can control pests such as the mites affecting honey bee colonies. The good thing about this form of genetic engineering is that it is not passed down from one generation to the next.
  • “Genetic Control of Mammal Populations” – Islands such as New Zealand are trying to use gene drives to wipe out pests such as rats. Not control them, but completely eliminate them once and for all. There are some obvious benefits, but this is also a little terrifying when you think that we now have the ability to engineer the complete extermination of a particular species in short order.
  • “Use of Lasers in Commercial Deep Water Fishing” – Sounds a little scary, but it’s an alternative to dragging heavy nets that destroy the bottom. 
  • “Use of Metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs) for Harvesting Atmospheric Water” – This is literally sucking humidity out of the air. Of course, we can all do this with our air conditioners and dehumidifiers, but that takes a lot of energy and this process apparently does not.
  • “Aquaporins Engineered to Increase Plant Salt Tolerance” – This is messing with plants so they can grow in saltier soil. Seems like a good idea, except there is potentially moral hazard here because good farming practices should stop good soil from becoming salty in the first place.
  • “Effect of Culturomics on Conservation Science, Policy, and Action” – This is just processing and analyzing large amounts of text.
  • “Changes in the Global Iron Cycle” – Iron can actually be a limiting nutrient in some ecosystems, particularly in the oceans. Melting glaciers and ice bergs have an effect on this – I won’t pretend to fully understand it.
  • “Underestimation of Soil Carbon Emissions” – Soils contain a lot of carbon, the decay of organic soils may give off more carbon than thought, and there could be an accelerating feedback loop as warmer temperatures accelerate the decay, which in turn cause warmer temperatures.
  • “Rapid Climatic Changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau” – This affects the Southeast Asian and Indian monsoons, among other things.
  • “International Collaborations to Encourage Marine Protected Area Expansion in the High Seas” – Okay, I guess they had to throw in something positive.
  • “Belt and Road Initiative in China” – Basically, China talks a good game on sustainability and the potential is there, but the on-the-ground reality is not very sustainable so far.
  • “Potential Effects on Wildlife of Increases in Electromagnetic Radiation” – This is about cell signals causing cancer. In wildlife, because this journal is about wildlife. But it’s a little concerning for us humans too.

A Deepness in the Sky

I just finished A Deepness in the Sky by Vernor Vinge, and it was the most enjoyable book I have read in the last couple years. I’m not going to spoil the plot, but like all Vernor Vinge books it has layers upon layers with themes such as civilizations rising and falling, technological progress (and sometimes regression) with its opportunities and dangers, interactions between civilizations at different levels of technology, and at similar levels of technology but with different cultures and values. The plot unfolds over long periods of time while the characters are very real, accessible, and human, even if not all of them are actually human.

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

The OECD publishes a Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook every two years. They name “ten key emerging technology trends”:

  1. The Internet of Things
  2. Big data analytics
  3. Artificial intelligence
  4. Neurotechnologies
  5. Nano/microsatellites
  6. Nanomaterials
  7. Additive manufacturing / 3D printing
  8. Advanced energy storage technologies
  9. Synthetic biology
  10. Blockchain

This report has a little bit of everything. They talk about the “water-food-energy” nexus and how it is likely to interact with new technologies, climate change, the drop in public research funding and increasing importance of non-state actors, and cities as engines of innovation.

The last part of the report talks about the future of research, research funding, private vs. public research, and research policies. One term that was new to me was Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) which attempts to manage risks and ethical concerns of new technologies.

Magic Leap

According to this article in Wired, the “world’s hottest startup” is virtual reality company Magic Leap.

Virtual reality overlaid on the real world in this manner is called mixed reality, or MR. (The goggles are semitransparent, allowing you to see your actual surroundings.) It is more difficult to achieve than the classic fully immersive virtual reality, or VR, where all you see are synthetic images, and in many ways MR is the more powerful of the two technologies.

Magic Leap is not the only company creating mixed-reality technology, but right now the quality of its virtual visions exceeds all others. Because of this lead, money is pouring into this Florida office park. Google was one of the first to invest. Andreessen Horowitz, Kleiner Perkins, and others followed. In the past year, executives from most major media and tech companies have made the pilgrimage to Magic Leap’s office park to experience for themselves its futuristic synthetic reality. At the beginning of this year, the company completed what may be the largest C-round of financing in history: $793.5 million. To date, investors have funneled $1.4 billion into it.

That astounding sum is especially noteworthy because Magic Leap has not released a beta version of its product, not even to developers. Aside from potential investors and advisers, few people have been allowed to see the gear in action, and the combination of funding and mystery has fueled rampant curiosity. But to really understand what’s happening at Magic Leap, you need to also understand the tidal wave surging through the entire tech industry. All the major players—Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Sony, Samsung—have whole groups dedicated to artificial reality, and they’re hiring more engineers daily. Facebook alone has over 400 people working on VR. Then there are some 230 other companies, such as Meta, the Void, Atheer, Lytro, and 8i, working furiously on hardware and content for this new platform.

Thomas Friedman

Thomas Friedman has a new book, Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations. Here’s the description from Amazon:

A field guide to the twenty-first century, written by one of its most celebrated observers

We all sense it—something big is going on. You feel it in your workplace. You feel it when you talk to your kids. You can’t miss it when you read the newspapers or watch the news. Our lives are being transformed in so many realms all at once—and it is dizzying.
In Thank You for Being Late, a work unlike anything he has attempted before, Thomas L. Friedman exposes the tectonic movements that are reshaping the world today and explains how to get the most out of them and cushion their worst impacts. You will never look at the world the same way again after you read this book: how you understand the news, the work you do, the education your kids need, the investments your employer has to make, and the moral and geopolitical choices our country has to navigate will all be refashioned by Friedman’s original analysis.
Friedman begins by taking us into his own way of looking at the world—how he writes a column. After a quick tutorial, he proceeds to write what could only be called a giant column about the twenty-first century. His thesis: to understand the twenty-first century, you need to understand that the planet’s three largest forces—Moore’s law (technology), the Market (globalization), and Mother Nature (climate change and biodiversity loss)—are accelerating all at once. These accelerations are transforming five key realms: the workplace, politics, geopolitics, ethics, and community.
Why is this happening? As Friedman shows, the exponential increase in computing power defined by Moore’s law has a lot to do with it. The year 2007 was a major inflection point: the release of the iPhone, together with advances in silicon chips, software, storage, sensors, and networking, created a new technology platform. Friedman calls this platform “the supernova”—for it is an extraordinary release of energy that is reshaping everything from how we hail a taxi to the fate of nations to our most intimate relationships. It is creating vast new opportunities for individuals and small groups to save the world—or to destroy it.
Thank You for Being Late is a work of contemporary history that serves as a field manual for how to write and think about this era of accelerations. It’s also an argument for “being late”—for pausing to appreciate this amazing historical epoch we’re passing through and to reflect on its possibilities and dangers. To amplify this point, Friedman revisits his Minnesota hometown in his moving concluding chapters; there, he explores how communities can create a “topsoil of trust” to anchor their increasingly diverse and digital populations.
With his trademark vitality, wit, and optimism, Friedman shows that we can overcome the multiple stresses of an age of accelerations—if we slow down, if we dare to be late and use the time to reimagine work, politics, and community. Thank You for Being Late is Friedman’s most ambitious book—and an essential guide to the present and the future.