Finland has created a free course in AI to try to improve the competitiveness of its citizens. They have translated it into “all the languages of the European Union”, which, thankfully, seems to still include English. (Is English still the lingua franca?)
This is a long article on automation and jobs, but what it boils down to is a reminder that if robot come for our jobs, simply working less and spending time on other things will be an option. This has happened many times in history, and the idea that becoming richer leads to working more is a very recent development. On the other hand, this only works if we share the new wealth.
Estonia is supposedly the most digitally advanced country in the world. Here’s a 2017 article from the New Yorker:
E-Estonia is the most ambitious project in technological statecraft today, for it includes all members of the government, and alters citizens’ daily lives. The normal services that government is involved with—legislation, voting, education, justice, health care, banking, taxes, policing, and so on—have been digitally linked across one platform, wiring up the nation…
Its government presents this digitization as a cost-saving efficiency and an equalizing force. Digitizing processes reportedly saves the state two per cent of its G.D.P. a year in salaries and expenses. Since that’s the same amount it pays to meet the nato threshold for protection (Estonia—which has a notably vexed relationship with Russia—has a comparatively small military), its former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves liked to joke that the country got its national security for free…
The program that resulted is called e-residency, and it permits citizens of another country to become residents of Estonia without ever visiting the place. An e-resident has no leg up at the customs desk, but the program allows individuals to tap into Estonia’s digital services from afar.
The New Yorker
A 2% boost to GDP seems like a pretty big deal to me. It’s a pretty clear example of how well-functioning government can provide a platform and level playing field for the economy to thrive. I can imagine this potential being even larger in the U.S. where everything is so decentralized and inefficient, even at the metro scale. Of course, this very inefficiency keeps a lot of people busy that would need to find something else to do if it went away.
Apparently anyone can apply to be an e-resident, and it allows you to essentially do business as though you were from, or in, Estonia. You can also hire them as consultants, of course.
This article claims that the rise of the entertainment industry explains slowing productivity growth, because not only does entertainment distract us from creative and productive pursuits, but our creative and productive people are pouring their energies into this sector because it is where the profits are. I don’t necessarily buy the former, because it is possible that we could be deciding as a society that we are productive enough and choosing to spend more time on pursuits that do not put ever more monetary wealth in our pockets. I think some people are doing that, perhaps not most. Perhaps in Scandinavia. But the second part does make sense to me, that the smartest and most creative people are not being drawn to the sectors where they could do the most good for society.
I’ve been thinking more about the Green New Deal, because I just can’t help myself. It mentions water, energy, transportation, housing, food and green infrastructure. As your emperor, I will set up an infrastructure bank to fund projects consistent with approved sustainable infrastructure plans produced by metropolitan planning agencies. I will tell you what the minimum goals of your plan have to be. You can add and sub-divide goals if you want, but you can’t subtract them. I will fund generously fund university planning and economics departments and consultants to help you put your plan together if you want. I will match your investments maybe 50 or even 75 cents on the dollar, but not 100% because you have to have some skin in the game or you won’t make good decisions. I will provide some kind of ongoing support for operation, maintenance, repair and retrofit of existing infrastructure, maybe through a trust fund set up for this purpose. My infrastructure bank will be counter-cyclical, opening up the floodgates when the private sector is struggling to employ everyone able to work, and dialing back when the private sector is robust and there are inflation concerns.
States, you can have a voice as stakeholders in the plans put together by metro areas, but money will not pass through you and you will not decide which projects are funded inside metro areas. You can do the planning for areas outside major metro areas. I might let you be an equal partner with the metro areas when it comes to the food and green infrastructure side of things.
I will turn on the taps for massive funding of basic research, into all aspects of energy, climate change, sustainability and resilience yes, but also for a broader focus on innovation and getting as back to the higher productivity growth trajectory of earlier decades. Tax incentives for private R&D are a pet conservative idea that fits well here too.
Along with capital/infrastructure investment, basic research and R&D, education and training are the other key to boosting long-term growth. I will turn on the taps there too, from pre-school to grade school to college to continuing education. Again, incentives for training on the private side will be part of this. If you lose your job to a robot, going back to school or entering a subsidized training program run by a high-value-added industry will be a viable option at no cost to you.
The “federal jobs guarantee” idea surprises me somewhat. Maybe I don’t understand it that well, but it seems like a fairly conservative idea similar to today’s unemployment benefits, but requiring people to work for the federal government to get benefits. Again, maybe I am misunderstanding. If you lose your job and are able to work but lack the education or skills, I’ll pay you to go back to school or enter a training program. If you truly can’t work, you’ll qualify for disability which will be tied to citizenship rather than past employment. I’m not sure just yet whether a universal basic income is the answer, but I’ll fully explore the idea and institute it if it makes sense. If you just want to sit on your ass and watch TV, I’m not going to make you comfortable, but I’ll make sure you don’t starve or die of exposure or a preventable disease.
As far as health care goes, I’ll just do the single payer thing. Everybody else in the world does it and it works fine. If I have to, I’ll figure out what the premium needs to be for people to buy into Medicare, and then give them that option. Tie it to citizenship, not to working for a large employer. Don’t worry about the insurance companies. They will scream, but they will adapt and make money selling “supplemental” plans like they do to rich retirees now.
There are a couple things missing from the Green New Deal. Childcare is one. There is talk of “family leave”, but really supporting working parents the way other advanced countries do means more than that. A lot of people don’t know that the U.S. came within hours of having a comprehensive government childcare system. It was passed by both houses of Congress and Richard Nixon’s pen was hovering inches above, fully primed with ink, when the lobbyists got to him. (Okay, I’m making up the part about the pen, but the part about Congress passing it and lobbyists convincing Nixon to veto it is all true.) What’s good for children is generally good for women, families, the work force and the nation as a whole, so I will do something to give families flexibility to cover that gap between birth and preschool using whatever combination of home care and high-quality government or licensed private care makes sense to them.
Also missing is any concept of a “peace dividend” or taking on the military industrial complex. I’d like to get our security costs down to 2 or 3% of GDP from the current 5%, which is unprecedented in history and unsustainable. A lot of our allies are richer than us at this point and can pay their fair share. Don’t worry about the arms exporters, they will scream but they are going to be really good at building windmills. If I have to ramp up spending quickly to support allies, Congress will have to declare war and there will be war taxes and war bonds and other sacrifices so the public understands what they are giving up to make that happen. Also, I will just get rid of the goddamn nuclear weapons.
Can we afford it, how will I pay for it? I already mentioned the peace dividend. Beyond that, my friends, my plan will pay for itself through a boost in productivity growth. We’ve heard that before, but I will actually do it. Just to be on the safe side, I’ll phase it in gradually and in a counter-cyclical, thoroughly Keynesian manner, so seriously just trust me you are barely going to notice. Oh, and there’s going to be a VAT like all other advanced countries have, and a carbon tax and other taxes on pollution and waste.
The answer, at least in this study, is a clear no. Kids in private school are doing better than kids in public school, but it can be entirely explained by family income.
By tracking longitudinally a sample of American children (n = 1,097), this study examined the extent to which enrollment in private schools between kindergarten and ninth grade was related to students’ academic, social, psychological, and attainment outcomes at age 15. Results from this investigation revealed that in unadjusted models, children with a history of enrollment in private schools performed better on nearly all outcomes assessed in adolescence. However, by simply controlling for the sociodemographic characteristics that selected children and families into these schools, all of the advantages of private school education were eliminated. There was also no evidence to suggest that low-income children or children enrolled in urban schools benefited more from private school enrollment.
This BBC article talks about how some people are using amphetamines like Adderall and Ritalin to stay focused and motivated in high pressure jobs. It clearly works, at least for short periods of time. It is not clear whether it can work longer term, because people may either need a significant recovery period to recover from use of the drugs, during which they are less focused and motivated than normal, or else they may become addicted to the drugs. But the article also points out that the new drugs are not qualitatively different from using coffee to stay focused and productive – it is just a matter of differences in degree and chemistry, and coffee has proven to be safe and even beneficial to most people.
There are some startups trying to move modular construction ahead quickly. Here is a news article on one called Katerra, which unfortunately is suffering some problems.
Here’s a technology to build 3D (digital) models of what is happening on construction sites over time using data from cameras mounted on workers’ helmets. If you have a 3D model of what is supposed to be built ahead of time, you can imagine this providing the chance to compare what is being built to what was planned, giving you the ability to catch and correct mistakes in real time.