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autonomous trucks
This article from Wired brings up a couple points about autonomous trucks I hadn’t thought of before.
The startup Peloton is working on “platooning” trucks, or groups of vehicles that communicate via a wireless connection that helps them time their movements. At some point soon, the system might let a lead driver take over the steering for a bit, while those at the wheels in the vehicles behind could snooze, catch up on paperwork, meditate, whatever. California-based Embark would like to see driver-monitored trucks pilot themselves on interstates but be manually driven into warehouses by nimbler humans. Starsky Robotics has a similar vision, but says that the trickier driving maneuvers could be done by a human in a remote location, Predator drone-style. It’s unclear if any of these companies want—or will be able—to ever take the human out of the picture entirely…
So you could have one driver or no drives for a whole line of trucks on the highway. Then, when they get to town, a driver or even a remote driver could bring them in one at a time, if the computers are not yet up to the job.
One thing I think about is that this sounds a lot like trains. It’s hard for me to believe that platoons of trucks will be cost-effective with trains even after you take most drivers out of the equation. But remember that the highway system is automatically funded by all highway users through the gas tax, while rail companies are required to build and maintain their own infrastructure. Politicians in rural areas, which are greatly overrepresented in our electoral system at the state and federal levels, like this system because it makes taxpayers in the economically productive areas (aka cities) fund inefficient road networks in the mostly empty rural areas they represent. So this is not a level playing field where victory goes to the most efficient technology.
Logan and autonomous trucks
Not being a big superhero fan, I haven’t yet seen the movie Logan. Apparently, one thing in the movie is autonomous trucks.
About midway through the second act of the new X-Men movie Logan, there’s a scene that brings the superhero film’s vision of the future to life. Our heroes, on the run from the villainous Reavers, happen upon a car accident in the midwest. An autonomous truck vehicle has hit a horse trailer—and with nobody at the wheel, it’s hard to know why it happened.
I won’t go more into detail about the scene, spoilers, etc. But Logan’s writer and director James Mangold’s inclusion of the self-driving trucking machines makes it clear that the filmmaker understands the writing on the wall about the future of shipping. It’s a future without truck drivers.
Maybe as humans we find this idea creepy, but today’s human-driven trucks are incredibly dangerous and the autonomous trucks of the near future will almost certainly save human lives.
Tesla trucks
Tesla is trying out automated trucks that can drive in platoons.
Reuters has learned that Tesla wants to experiment with “platooning,” where several autonomous trucks, some without drivers, follow a lead truck on a highway using autonomous driving tech. This technique is viewed as allowing trucks to travel in small groups, creating some aerodynamic benefits for the following trucks and permitting the drivers in the group to switch to a “follow” mode that could not be accomplished with human drivers tailgating each other. In this platoon mode, all the trucks communicate to stay close, taking directions from a lead truck and reacting accordingly.
It was only a matter of time until attention turned to trucks and buses rather than just cars. One thing I wonder is at what price point would this technology be competitive with rail, given that trucks can deliver door to door? Especially if we continue to subsidize our roads with public money and our rails not at all.
Detroit leading the self driving car race
Despite all the hype around Google, Uber and Tesla, this report from Navigant Research says GM, Ford, Daimler, Nissan and BMW are leading the race to bring self-driving cars to market. Waymo (Google), Hyundai, Toyota and Tesla are in the middle of the pack, while Honda and Uber are bringing up the rear. To me, it’s an interesting example of how big, powerful, but stodgy corporations can innovate when they are threatened by small upstart players. I wouldn’t have predicted the Detroit companies would pull it off, or that the big Asian players would lag behind. I also thought we might see some partnerships between traditional car companies and tech companies, but the car companies seem to be developing the tech on their own.
https://www.wired.com/2017/04/detroit-stomping-silicon-valley-self-driving-car-race/
Mercedes self-driving taxis in 3 years
The headline pretty much says it – Mercedes Benz is committing to self-driving taxis within 3 years.
Obama on self driving cars
I like the byline on this article from The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Barack Obama is president of the United States.
I suppose there are people out there who don’t know that. But are they people who read newspapers?
Anyway, Obama appears to be a fan of self-driving cars:
In the seven-and-a-half years of my presidency, self-driving cars have gone from sci-fi fantasy to an emerging reality with the potential to transform the way we live.
Right now, too many people die on our roads – 35,200 last year alone – with 94 percent of those the result of human error or choice. Automated vehicles have the potential to save tens of thousands of lives each year…
Even as we focus on the safety of automated vehicles, we know that this technology, as with any new technology, has the potential to create new jobs and render other jobs obsolete. So it’s critical that we also provide new resources and job training to prepare every American for the good-paying jobs of tomorrow.
It’s interesting to measure technological progress in Presidential terms. This is a major technological advance that happened fast, and yet, like most advances, we get used to it so fast we kind of think we saw it coming all along. But many of us remember where we were and what we were thinking about the year Obama got elected, and I don’t remember thinking much about self-driving cars. And if I was mentioning them to friends, I was getting laughed at. Of course, now it turns out those friends knew it all along. What am I predicting for the next eight years. Perhaps we will all have pet glow-in-the-dark woolly mini-mammoths. Or maybe not, but I don’t think exotic genetically engineered pets would be far out of the realm of possibility. You heard it here first.
autonomous vehicles and suburban sprawl
Planetizen says autonomous vehicles won’t lead to more sprawl.
While we recognize the synergies AVs have with transit (something that is likely to be impacted by the technologythat we will discuss in the future), we do not share the belief that AVs will cause a new, unprecedented wave of sprawl. Rather, growing patterns of sprawl and longer “super-commutes” are unlikely outcomes of AVs for three key reasons: 1) the presence of existing land use, transportation, and infrastructure controls and growth management plans; 2) trends in housing consumption and residential preferences; and 3) social dynamics and the emergence of more informed decision-making.
I think the biggest effect of autonomous vehicles within urban areas will be on parking. At the moment, we have enormous numbers of parked vehicles taking up enormous amounts of space right where we are trying to live, work, and shop. With autonomous vehicles, we should either be able to share them, meaning a smaller number of vehicles in motion more of the time rather than parked, or if we really still want to own them, they can go park themselves in out-of-the-way places and come get us when we call them. This could lead to some very vibrant, social, creative, green urban areas.
I can also imagine some people will choose to live completely cloistered lives where they are sitting in comfortable vehicles several hours a day while going to and from work, or going to far-away vacation homes on the weekend. You could even imagine people choosing to live full-time in autonomous RVs.
killer robot news
In killer robot news, there is a drone now that can roam around on its own and kill by injecting poison with a needle. No, it’s still not Ray Bradbury’s mechanical hound, which I am still expecting any day now. This one is roaming the Great Barrier Reef murdering starfish.
I still find it just a tiny bit disturbing. But I also wondered if chemical pesticides could be replaced by tiny drones that target specific pests. That is likely to be one topic of the science fiction masterpiece series I plan to write as soon as I become unexpectedly independently wealthy and retire from my day job. Of course, in my science fiction book, they will probably start running amok and killing all the pollinators, which will of course threaten the world food supply. But then someone will invent a pollinator drone, which will seem like a good idea for awhile until in a desperate attempt to save the world’s remaining natural ecosystems, we seed them with these various drones and they, well, run amok somehow. Aren’t most science fiction stories about something or other running amok?
And in one more robot story, there was an autonomous quadcopter unveiled at CES (you’re supposed to just know what that stands for) that can supposedly carry human occupants, although nobody has been brave enough to ride in it.
Ehang, the drone maker, claims its all-electric quadcopter, the Ehang 184, is the first in the world that is capable of operating autonomously. According to the company’s announcement, the vehicle is like an oversized drone – built just big enough to carry a single passenger. That passenger supposedly has only to plug in their desired destination, sit back, and enjoy the ride while the aircraft takes off and climbs up to 11,000 feet. If there is a problem, Ehang says the human passenger can take over the controls and pilot the chopper to safety…
Despite the skepticism, Ehang officials believe their autonomous quadcopter could revolutionize personal travel on a global scale. “It’s been a lifetime goal of mine to make flight faster, easier, and more convenient than ever. The 184 provides a viable solution to the many challenges the transportation industry faces in a safe and energy-efficient way,” said Ehang CEO Huazhi Hu. “I truly believe that Ehang will make a global impact across dozens of industries beyond personal travel. The 184 is evocative of a future we’ve always dreamed of and is primed to alter the very fundamentals of the way we get around.”
There are obvious military uses – no needles attached to these but I don’t see why there couldn’t be. It might seem dangerous to drive these things around town. But one more thought I have is that if we replaced our rubber-wheeled cars with something like this, it could obviate the need for so much pavement even if it were just elevated a few inches or feet off the ground. Maybe they could be soft and just bounce off each other at low speed without damage. Maybe they could stack or hang on hooks rather than needing horizontal parking lots. Maybe we could get rid of a lot of pollution and flooding caused by all that pavement, plus a lot of the toxins that come from tire and brake dust. It might take more energy though to both elevate these vehicles and propel them around than we use on cars now, I am not sure about that. A clean cheap energy source would always be a good idea.
autonomous truck
With all the talk of self-driving cars, I figured self-driving trucks and buses wouldn’t be far behind. And here is a self-driving truck, already licensed in a few U.S. states. It sounds like there is still a human driver in it for now. But in the long term, I imagine this is bad news for human driver as an occupation. It should be good news for the safety of humans on the road in general. It seems like it could favor the economics of road freight vs. rail. Then again, it might make much narrower travel lanes practical, leaving plenty of room in the right of way for other infrastructure like high speed rail, high voltage lines, pipelines, etc. Time will tell.