Tag Archives: election 2024

July U.S. Election Check-in

Well, I was all set to tell you that the polls moved decisively toward Biden in June, and that would have been true with just a few days to go. But it seems the debate on June 27 really did cause a sharp swing toward Trump. I don’t like it, but these are the facts of the case. We will see if the effect is persistent or if things slowly revert to trend. Either way, the polls closing in the last few days of June may not fully indicate the state of the damage, so it may get worse before it gets better for Biden, if it does in fact ever get better.

STATE2020 RESULTMost Recent 538 Poll Average (as of 7/1/24)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Trump +4.8% (June 1: Trump +4.7)
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +6.3% (June 1: Trump +5.5)
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Trump +0.8% (June 1: Trump +1.4%)
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Trump +7.3% (June 1: Trump +6.2%)
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Trump +2.0% (June 1: Trump +2.0%)
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +1.8% (June 1: Trump +0.6%)
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +3.8% (June 1: Trump +5.9%)

In June, 1/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Biden – Nevada.

In June, 1/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Biden – Wisconsin.

In June, 1/7 swing states had no change – Pennsylvania.

In June, 2/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Trump – Arizona, Georgia.

In June, 2/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Trump – North Carolina and Michigan.

So the trend is all over the place, with big swings toward Trump coming right at the end of the month. Trump obviously has all the swing states at the moment and is headed for an electoral college landslide if current trends hold.

Enough has been written about the debate. I’ll just link to this Politico article that points out that if you were just reading the transcript, a lot of what he said was very reasonable and even astute. That was my impression when listening to the actual debate. But I can’t excuse any politician for failing to be prepared and put on a decent rhetorical performance – that is what they do, and there 10,000 politicians who could have done it better than Biden did on Thursday night. So either he was inexplicably, inexcusably poorly prepared, or he really is faltering physically and mentally, with dire consequences for our nation’s future.

Trump, detention camps, and deportation

Trump is talking about incarcerating and detaining all the undocumented immigrants in the United States, which would be about 11 million people. Snopes does a good job of fact checking the specific things he has said about this.

A November 2023 New York Times investigation found that Trump was planning “an extreme expansion” of his first-term immigration policies, including rounding up undocumented people in the United States and putting them in detention camps before expelling them from the country…

Trump had made similar comments in September 2023, saying he would carry out “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.” He also said he would be, “Following the Eisenhower Model” for such deportations, referencing a 1954 campaign to round up and expel Mexican migrants named for an ethnic slur—Operation Wetback.

In sum, in December 2023 speeches, Trump did call for mass deportations and emphasized that such migrants come from all over the world, using rhetoric that echoed past speeches. Furthermore, reporting confirms that there are indeed plans for a future Trump administration to build huge detention camps to hold migrants.

Snopes

It is not hearsay that Trump is talking about these things – he gave an interview to Time (covered here, confusingly, by CNN) in which he talked about this explicitly. He says he plans to round 15-20 million people up into detention camps and deport them.

Some people say the Trump-Hitler comparisons are overblown, but it is worth remembering that Hitler had schemes to deport Jews to Madagascar, Alaska, and/or Siberia among other places, before he gave up on those and came up with his “final solution”. The other parallel is that he managed to bring local police and security forces under his central control, which echoes Trump’s discussion of using the National Guard and military here.

The human rights abuses this would engender are fairly obvious, but there are also many practical issues. Citizens of the United States are not required to carry papers proving their citizenship, so who do you choose to detain and how do you go about proving that they are undocumented? It would likely be done on the basis of (perceived) ethnicity, which brings to mind the incarceration of Japanese-Americans during World War II and the mistaken deportation of Mexican Americans in the 1950s. You could swoop in and interrogate inmates of jails and prisons, which is probably what would actually happen, but this would not add up to millions of people. The other thing you can do, and the U.S. government has done, is swoop into work places and demand to see papers. This is actually somewhat practical since workers are in fact required to prove they are eligible to work. However, being ineligible to work does not automatically mean your presence in the country is illegal. So now people might be swept up and held in detention camps without due process while courts try to figure out who they are. Even if a legal proceeding determines that an individual is in the country illegally, there is the problem of where to deport that person to (once again, see Hitler). Again, people could be held for years without due process while this plays out.

Finally, if you want to make inflation worse, deporting a huge chunk of the low-wage work force is a great way to do that. It would be much more humane and pro-business to expand work permits and temporary visas to let people in who want to work, but put some restrictions on how long they can stay and who they can bring along. This would be a win for human rights and would be business friendly, which at least traditional Republicans are nominally in favor of. The other side of this coin is to encourage U.S. business investment in Latin America, which would have the twin benefits of reducing migration pressure and producing cheap stuff to import, which also helps to hold down prices.

Summarizing Project 2025

In fairness, I don’t see much evidence here of the “blueprint for a fascist takeover” narrative some in the left-wing media are pushing. I see misguided yet unimaginitive ideas for a reorganization of the executive branch, which any new CEO of any organization is likely to undertake just to leave his or her (okay, let’s be honest, HIS in this cracker-ass country of ours) mark on the organization. I’ll just summarize my take on this document below.

  1. Double down on the homophobic, Christian Nationalist agenda. This includes immigration controls and attacks on public education. The immigration controls are counter to the big business cheap labor agenda, though, which raises a conundrum.
  2. Shamelessly let the fossil fuel industry lobby write the nation’s laws in its favor, at the expense of our nation’s food security, our coastal population centers, and everyone on Earth.
  3. Shamelessly give the military-industrial complex anything and everything it wants. This crowds out investment in peaceful innovation and technological progress, and greatly increases the risk of nuclear war.
  4. Shamelessly give the financial industry anything and everything it wants. This includes no functioning health care system in our country, and no regulations to prevent a meltdown of the international financial system such as almost happened in 2008. This is very dangerous.
  5. To nominally promote “small government and low taxes”, eliminate or slash the funding of key agencies that underpin our nation’s resilience to the existential threats of our age. This includes FEMA (fires, floods) and the CDC/NIH complex able to respond to pandemics and biowarfare attacks, which are eventually coming.

Project 2025, Part 4

Tackling the section called “The Economy”.

  • Self-labeled “Conservatives” are not sure if they like free trade or not. Economic and financial conservatives (confusingly known as “neoliberals” in every other country) do. But the xenophobic element does not, so the Republican party is conflicted about this one. This section is “on the one hand… on the other hand…” drivel with no clear policy position.
  • They want to get rid of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, because this agency knows the incontrovertible truth about climate change (which is always in quotes in this document) and this is against the fossil fuel industry agenda.
  • They want to gut the census bureau, because this agency knows the truth that the United States is under minority rule.
  • They want to gut the IRS.
  • They want to gut the Dodd-Frank rule and other regulations passed on the finance industry after they shamelessly almost destroyed the world’s economy in 2008. This is just shameless caving to a powerful industry lobby.
  • There is a faction that wants to eliminate central banking, or try other yahoo proposals like a return to the gold standard. All this was tried in the 19th century and ushered in a century of chaos, culminating in the GREAT DEPRESSION. This is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. I am unclear, but I don’t think the executive branch can do this all on its own.

June U.S. election check-in

I’m sticking with 538’s adjusted poll averages here, which consider poll quality and recency.

STATE2020 RESULTMost Recent 538 Poll Average (as of 6/1/24)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Trump +4.7% (May 2: Trump +3.2)
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +5.5% (May 2: Trump +5.9)
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Trump +1.4% (May 2: Trump +2.6%)
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Trump +6.2% (May 2: Trump +6.4%)
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Trump +2.0% (May 2: Trump +1.8%)
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +0.6% (May 2: Trump +1.3%)
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +5.9% (May 2: Trump +5.1%)

In May, 1/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Biden – Wisconsin.

In May, 3/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Biden – Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan.

In May, 2/7 swing states had small (< 1%) movement toward Trump – Pennsylvania, Nevada.

In May, 1/7 swing states had large (> 1%) movement toward Trump – Arizona.

So it’s hard to say things are trending one way or the other over the past month, and the trend needs to be significantly in Biden’s favor for him to have a good shot in November. As it stands now, the electoral college would be 312 Trump to 226 Biden, a major defeat. If Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were to all break for Biden, it would be Biden 270 to Trump 268.

Latinos for Trump?

Alongside the narrative that the Republican Party is a white supremacist party, we hear a narrative that Latino voters are shifting toward Trump. This matters because they make up about 15% of U.S. voters. I’ll share a few thoughts:

  • First, the U.S. Census has revised how it asks people if they identify as Latino over the years, and is considering revising it again. This makes it a little hard to track over time. It occurs to me that it is just a very broad group with some very disparate people, ranging from Puerto Ricans to people with Cuban ancestry to South American ancestry to Spanish ancestry and newly arrived immigrants to families who have been in the U.S. for many generations. So I am just not sure how predictive this category is of how people are going to vote.
  • For people who have immigrated legally and recently, not all are going to be sympathetic to undocumented immigrants. It may seem unfair when you feel you have followed the rules to see that others have not. People also may see newly arrived immigrants as competing for jobs, whether this is really borne out by the facts or not. So Republican anti-immigrant messaging may appeal to some, although the ads we are seeing in Pennsylvania right now are just blatant racist lies, in my opinion.
  • People who view themselves as succeeding through hard work resent any sense that the government is taking their income and redistributing it to people who do not work hard. So the Republicans can trot out their decades-old anti-tax and “welfare queen” messages and they are going to resonate with some people, sometimes.
  • This may be a sensitive topic, but there is some anti-black racism among some Latinos, sometimes, and so even blatantly racist messaging from the Republicans is going to reach some people.
  • For approximately 50 years, the Democrats have made promises to the working class and middle class and failed to deliver them, time and time again. The Republicans don’t offer solutions, but they can just keep pointing out that the Democrats have failed to deliver, and offer us people to blame. This message reaches a lot of people of all races who are hurting in this country.

So those are the problems. Now our politicians can just put on their thinking caps and come up with practical solutions, right?

April election poll check-in, or “it’s just the fading price shocks in gas and groceries, stupid”

Here’s where we stand as I write this on April 3, 2024. Sure, there are all sorts of reasons the polls might be wrong and it is a long time until election day…but I would rather be ahead in the polls and saying that than behind, wouldn’t you? Or even behind and getting less behind.

STATE2020 RESULTMost Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 4/3/24)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Trump +5.2% (March 1: Trump +5.5)
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +4.5% (March 1: Trump +6.5)
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Trump +0.6% (March 1: Trump +1.0%)
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Trump +4.6% (March 1: Trump +5.7%)
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Trump +0.6% (March 1: Biden +0.8%)
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +3.4% (March 1: Trump +3.6%)
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +3.2% (March 1: Trump +7.7%)

The electoral college vote, as it stands at the moment, would be 312 for Trump to 226 for Biden. (March 1: 293 for Trump to 245 for Biden)

So the verdict is…Biden behind but getting less behind in every swing state (6 out of 7) except Pennsylvania. The Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina moves are all more than 1% towards Biden. Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan are less than 1% towards Biden. The Pennsylvania move is less than 1% towards Trump, but because this flips the state from slight Biden to slight Trump, Trump now leads all swing states and the electoral college looks even worse for Biden than a month ago.

Have we gone from “it’s the economy, stupid” to “it’s the rate of change in the rate of change in the price of groceries, compared to the rate of change of the rate of change in the price of groceries two years ago, stupid”? Maybe it’s that simple. Sure, there is plenty going on in the world in terms of war and peace and the collapsing biosphere that supports all life. But we are Americans, and we don’t base our votes on these things. At least not enough of us, enough of the time to make a difference compared to the damn price of groceries. All things being equal, I would wager on this trend continuing over the next seven months. Of course, all things will probably not be equal – a significant recession that throws a significant number of voters out of work would be the worst possible thing for Biden. Because it doesn’t matter so much how much the damn groceries cost if you have no money at all. On the other hand, most other crises might tend to give Biden a chance to show some leadership, which at least some voters might like. And of course, Biden and/or Trump could drop dead at any time. I am not predicting any of these things, just defining a range of things that could happen.

March election poll check-in

Here’s where we stand as I write this on March 1, 2024. Polling averages now include some polls concluded in late February.

STATE2020 RESULTMost Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 3/1/24)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Trump +5.5% (February 4: Trump +4.5)
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +6.5% (February 4: Trump +7.2)
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Trump +1.0% (February 4: Trump +0.2%)
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Trump +5.7% (February 4: Trump +5.4%)
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Biden +0.8% (February 4: Biden +0.3%)
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +3.6% (February 4: Trump +5.1%)
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +7.7% (February 4: Trump +7.0%)

The electoral college vote, as it stands at the moment, would be 293 for Trump to 245 for Biden.

About the best you can say is that things look bad for Biden, but it is not unequivocally clear that they are not getting worse… If only elections were decided by the second derivative of the vote!

Do I even need to make the case against Trump?

  • Climate change is just beginning to impact our homes, our economic livelihoods and our food supply. The impacts we are seeing today are the result of emissions decades ago, and we have not even begun to see the impacts of more recent emissions let alone today’s emissions. We are just on the cusp of starting to bend back the curve of producing more emissions every year, and this progress needs to continue if we are going to see impacts continue to increase, then peak, then finally start to decrease (derivatives again!) We are doing too little, too late, but at least we are doing something. Elect Trump and we will monkey wrench the whole process and set progress back by a decade AGAIN.
  • The threat from nuclear weapons (proliferation, use in war, use in terrorism, accidents) is high and getting higher. Trump let key treaties lapse, and electing him will bring this existential threat even closer to reality.
  • The United States is not doing so well that it can risk having morons in charge. Trump is just one singular moron, but he will appoint incompetent political hacks to key leadership positions whenever he gets a chance. The U.S. economy and bureaucracy might be able to blunder through four years of business as usual, but throw in one or more serious crises – war, plague, famine, natural disaster, financial/cyber-meltdown – and the hacks will not be able to deal with it. Covid-19 was just a taste of what a really serious crisis could look like. Without competent leadership, our ability to bounce back from a crisis is impaired, and either a succession of smallish crises or a single major crisis could be the one that brings out nation to its knees.