Category Archives: Book Review – Nonfiction

Superintelligence

Leave a reply

I’m reading (listening to, actually) Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom and finding it unexpectedly very interesting. The book focuses on artificial intelligence, but early on he talks about possibilities for enhancing biological intelligence using current or near-future technology. Here’s an online paper where he talks about the same concept. Just using current in vitro fertilization technology, which creates about 10 embryos at a time, you could theoretically boost IQ by about 11 points if you pick just the smartest of the 10. (This is just a thought experiment so let’s not worry about the other 9. Of course, some otherwise reasonable people are going to have an ethical problem with this.) Do that 10 times in a row and you could theoretically boost IQ by 100 points or more. Einstein had an IQ of about 160. So you can produce a race of super-Einstein’s using current technology. Now, it would take 250 years to do this, and you would have to get everybody to do it, both to make a real impact at the societal level, and to avoid disturbing implications of those left behind.

Using a likely near-future technology called iterative embryo selection, you can theoretically extract the DNA from one or more embryos, move it to sperm and egg cells, combine them again to make a new set of embryos, and do it again. This might take a few years or months to go the 10 generations of 1-in-10, rather than 250 years. Now it’s potentially something big.

I’m a bit worried about super-villains. I don’t see any reason to think twice-as-smart humans will automatically be twice as ethical or twice as empathetic, and it might only take one really bad apple to ruin whatever utopia our newly brilliant problem solving selves come up with.

Like I said, the book is really about artificial intelligence. He believes that even humans enhanced to have, say, double the current average IQ will eventually be far outclassed by machines. It is not going to take 250 years for that to happen, so creating smarter humans in 250 years won’t make a lot of sense. If we create smarter humans in the short term, he thinks they will just use their smarts to make smarter machines even sooner.

This is just scratching the surface. It’s really a fascinating book, and somewhat like when I first read The Singularity is Near, I kind of feel like I am being let in on secrets that nobody else around me knows.

Blue Origin and The High Frontier

Leave a reply

I was listening to a Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy podcast focusing on Jeff Bezos’s company Blue Origin. He doesn’t publicize his space activities as aggressively as Elon Musk, but he is serious apparently. The interviewee is Christian Davenport, author of a book called The Space Barons: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the Quest to Colonize the Cosmos. He says that one of Bezos’s inspirations is an older book called The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space by Gerard O’Neill. Here’s an excerpt from the Amazon description of that book:

In 1974, Dr. O’Neill put his three-pronged plan of Space Colonization, Space Solar Power and Large Scale Space Construction into easily accessible form with the release of the book The High Frontier. Fourteen years later, The Space Studies Institute, founded by O’Neill, re-released the original text, unchanged except for the doctor’s addition of the Appendix “A View from 1988…”

This is one of the milestone and timeless classics of Space Habitation, Alternative Power and Human Potential, all made possible with technology we already have. A Must-Read.

Obama’s favorite books of 2018

Leave a reply

In a Facebook post, Barrack Obama claims to have read 29 books this year. That’s impressive, even if there is some skimming involved. I guess the dude is basically retired and he probably also has some help with childcare. Good for him. No word on whether Donald Trump reread his copy of the collected speeches of Adolf Hitler even once this year.

New York Times Top 10 Books of 2018

Leave a reply

Well, I had a look at their Top 10, and nothing really caught my eye. There are two book-length expansions of magazine articles I remember reading, one a Mother Jones article about private prisons, and Michael Pollan’s article on psychedelics. Both were good, but the articles were long enough and got the point across. I don’t need to read the books.

They also have a list of “books that didn’t make the top 10“. Steven Pinker has a new one on why things are actually not so bad in the United States right now. Incidentally, you can contrast it with this article about how things are really bad in the United States right now, or at least going in a bad direction when most of the rest of the developed world is making progress. I think it depends on who you are – things are okay if you are a middle-class professional or higher on the class ladder (and you pretty much have to be a professional to live a middle class life style these days, which is the problem – being at the median really does not necessarily mean a middle class life style these days.)

Another one that caught my eye – just in time for Christmas! – is called The Darkening Age: The Christian Destruction of the Classical World. I’ve always sort of thought that even in the Christian world of the Middle Ages was less enlightened than what came before, and arguably less enlightened than the Muslim and East Asian worlds of the time, it at least preserved art, music, and literature that was built on later. The title of this one (which I admit is all I have read) seems to cast doubt on that.

Vertical Farms

Leave a reply

I’m listening to Dixon Despommier’s 2010 book Vertical Farming. I was expecting an architect-y, design-y kind of book, but it turns out Despommier is an ecologist and his main message is ecological. He believes the current system of farming has been a disaster for the planet’s ecosystems and that it is also headed for a catastrophic collapse with current and increased demands for food. His argument is to bring most agriculture into high rises in urban areas where it can be very carefully controlled. This would also allow the re-wilding of most land currently devoted to agriculture worldwide.

He argues that this an economical choice when the value of ecosystem services is considered (although he simultaneously makes this argument and rails against the idea of monetizing ecosystems at all). I’m a little more than halfway through the book and I haven’t gotten to the part where he argues that the cost of using artificial light rather than taking advantage of free and abundant sunlight is offset by other costs. I assume he is going to get to that. I also wonder if he is going to address the idea that removing one limit (in this case, the amount of food that can be produced with the planet’s available land and sunlight) in the long term could allow us to continue growing the population until we hit another limit. These are a couple questions I am curious how we will address, but overall I am enjoying the book. He does briefly bring up the idea that this could be a step toward moving into space or colonizing other planets.

Capitalism without Capital

Leave a reply

Bill Gates reviews Capitalism without Capital, a new book about “intangible” products and services.

They start by defining intangible assets as “something you can’t touch.” It sounds obvious, but it’s an important distinction because intangible industries work differently than tangible industries. Products you can’t touch have a very different set of dynamics in terms of competition and risk and how you value the companies that make them…

What the book reinforced for me is that lawmakers need to adjust their economic policymaking to reflect these new realities. For example, the tools many countries use to measure intangible assets are behind the times, so they’re getting an incomplete picture of the economy. The U.S. didn’t include software in GDP calculations until 1999. Even today, GDP doesn’t count investment in things like market research, branding, and training—intangible assets that companies are spending huge amounts of money on.

Measurement isn’t the only area where we’re falling behind—there are a number of big questions that lots of countries should be debating right now. Are trademark and patent laws too strict or too generous? Does competition policy need to be updated? How, if at all, should taxation policies change? What is the best way to stimulate an economy in a world where capitalism happens without the capital? We need really smart thinkers and brilliant economists digging into all of these questions. Capitalism Without Capital is the first book I’ve seen that tackles them in depth, and I think it should be required reading for policymakers.

Recently I was reading something suggesting that countries should keep a balance sheet, which keeps track of stocks, in addition to GDP, which is more like an income statement keeping track of flows. This seems right to me. Spending on education and training adds to the stock of human capital at some rate, but efficiency may vary and the stock is also being depleted at the same time. Drawing down natural capital increases income on the short term but comes at the expense of the long term. Research and development are a little different because they affect the pace of progress, or at least improve the odds of the gamble.

Giants: The Global Power Elite

Leave a reply

This is a new book from Project Censored (or at least that’s where I became aware of it). I’m not sure whether I agree with the politics 100%, but numbers are numbers and these are a bit shocking.

As the number of men with as much wealth as half the world fell from sixty-two to just eight between January 2016 and January 2017, according to Oxfam International, fewer than 200 super-connected asset managers at only 17 asset management firms—each with well over a trillion dollars in assets under management–now represent the financial core of the world’s transnational capitalist class. Members of the global power elite are the management–the facilitors–of world capitalism, the firewall protecting the capital investment, growth, and debt collection that keeps the status quo from changing. Each chapter in Giants identifies by name the members of this international club of multi-millionaires, their 17 global financial companies—and including NGOs such as the Group of Thirty and the Trilateral Commission—and their transnational military protectors, so the reader, for the first time anywhere, can identify who consitutes this network of influence, where the wealth is concentrated, how it suppresses social movements, and how it can be redistributed for maximum systemic change.