Category Archives: Online Tools / Apps / Data Sources

risk and investing

Leave a reply

This blog is about looking at possible futures, not necessarily profiting from them. But of course, who doesn’t want to do that if they can? It’s not just about short-term profit, it’s about building a nest egg which is your personal resilience against whatever events the future holds. A nest egg is also about your personal choice to defer some happiness now for the possibility of greater happiness later.

This book looks promising to me. The author breaks risks into “inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation”. I haven’t read the book, but presumably he offers portfolio suggestions to deal with these risks.

Since I’m on personal finance today, here is a grab bag of other related topics and links.

One thing everyone can and should do right away is minimize how much the financial industry steals from us in the form of fees. Index funds are one way to do this. The case to go all-index is incredibly strong, but in case you don’t want to take my word for it, Vanguard makes the case every year. If you are the type to dig into numbers yourself, S&P has a free online data set here. Finally, this Economist column mentions a number of smaller startup companies that are providing some competition to the big banks and their ridiculous fees. Among them is TransferWise which says it allows people to transfer money abroad much cheaper than they have been able to in the past. I haven’t tried it yet.

Stellarium

Leave a reply

Stellarium is free, open source software that simulates the night sky as it would appear from anywhere anytime (no foolin’ I promise). It’s used by professional planetariums, but you can download it to your Windows, Apple, Linux or Ubuntu machine.

Here’s one more fun thing – a simulation where you can change the mass of the Sun, Earth, or Moon and see how it affects the orbits of all three. If you make the Sun too big, the Earth gets sucked into it, but if you make it too small, the Earth just flies out into space. It just reminds us that we are lucky to be here. There’s also a similar simulation where you can make up your own planets and see how they would orbit a star and each other.

new grocery delivery services

Leave a reply

This article is about some new subscription-based grocery delivery services. This could make it even easier to live in car-free walkable communities for those who want to do that. You can shop for fresh food at a market when you want to do that, but have a steady stream of basic staples delivered on a reliable basis. Combine this with smart appliances – meaning your refrigerator and cabinets know what is in them – and you should never have to run out for an item in the middle of the night again. The only possible concern I have is whether this will push us even more towards processed, packaged food.

birds, bees, bugs, plants

Leave a reply

On the green infrastructure front, there are lots of resources out there on what plants support what kinds of wildlife.

“Bugs” have a PR problem as a group, but they have their charismatic members – bees, butterflies, and dragonflies to name a few. If you support these, you will probably support others by accident. There is plenty of information out there, for example:

The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation has a ton of free publications on plants, pollinators, and design; including bee-friendly plant lists for all regions of the United States and several other countries.

The Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center has a ton of free native plant information, including recommended mixes to attract various types of wildlife in all U.S. states and Canadian provinces.

Finally, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture) has free fact sheets on about a thousand plants.

A lot of good can be done for wildlife and humanity on small scraps of land, and even more good could be done if we gave serious thought to how all those scraps of land fit together and connect to larger parks and preserves. So let’s get out and plant something this spring, even if it’s small. Or if you have a scrap of land but you don’t feel like planting anything, find a frustrated armchair gardener who doesn’t have their own scrap and let them plant something on yours.

how U.S. taxes are spent

Leave a reply

In a poll of U.S. taxpayers, 95% of respondents had no idea how much the country spends on foreign aid, which is much less than 1%. It just shows that although rational people can disagree on how our tax money should be spent, we are not having a rational debate because most of us have no clue what it is really being spent on. A taxpayer receipt is a simple idea to help cure this problem. Ideally this should be done by the IRS or Treasury Department, but the White House has stepped in to do it since nobody else will.

I picked a hypothetical married couple with children making an income of $80,000 per year. There are a million different ways you can slice it. But no matter what you do, the biggest categories jump out at you. Income tax is only about 40% of what the government takes in from this family, with Social Security and Medicare taxes making up the other 60%. Pensions for retired people make up the majority of how the money is spent, with Social Security alone making up almost half. Even without an offical public health care system, the federal government spends a lot on health care – almost 20% of all the money spent between Medicare (for older people) and programs to help lower-income people (Medicaid and children’s health insurance programs mostly). Of course, state and local governments also tax and spend on health care, which is not reflected here.

The military makes up around 10% of all federal spending. If you add veteran’s benefits (I’m double counting here, since these include retirement and health care) and homeland security, that number comes to more like 13%.

So however you slice it, the big numbers are retirement, health care, and defense. If we want to make significant changes in either the amount of tax, or the outcomes of government programs, we should focus most of our debating energies in these areas.

 

R graph catalog

Leave a reply

Here’s a nice catalog of graphs made with R, along with source code for each. Some of the images were broken or missing when I tried it, but hopefully they’ll get that fixed. (By they way, this is my personal experience with interactive “Shiny” apps so far – I love the idea and the look, but there always seems to be something wrong that needs to be fixed, and fixing it takes more time and requires more specialized training than just dealing with plain old code. At first, I thought it might be a productivity enhancer, but instead it’s a drag when your job is not to build cool-looking apps, but to produce useful data analysis results in a reasonable amount of time.)

open source street noise model

Leave a reply

Here’s an open-source code for modeling street noise propagation. It’s written in R and open source database and GIS tools.

This paper describes the development of a model for assessing TRAffic Noise EXposure (TRANEX) in an open-source geographic information system. Instead of using proprietary software we developed our own model for two main reasons: 1) so that the treatment of source geometry, traffic information (flows/speeds/spatially varying diurnal traffic profiles) and receptors matched as closely as possible to that of the air pollution modelling being undertaken in the TRAFFIC project, and 2) to optimize model performance for practical reasons of needing to implement a noise model with detailed source geometry, over a large geographical area, to produce noise estimates at up to several million address locations, with limited computing resources. To evaluate TRANEX, noise estimates were compared with noise measurements made in the British cities of Leicester and Norwich. High correlation was seen between modelled and measured LAeq,1hr (Norwich: r = 0.85, p = .000; Leicester: r = 0.95, p = .000) with average model errors of 3.1 dB. TRANEX was used to estimate noise exposures (LAeq,1hr, LAeq,16hr, Lnight) for the resident population of London (2003–2010). Results suggest that 1.03 million (12%) people are exposed to daytime road traffic noise levels ≥ 65 dB(A) and 1.63 million (19%) people are exposed to night-time road traffic noise levels ≥ 55 dB(A). Differences in noise levels between 2010 and 2003 were on average relatively small: 0.25 dB (standard deviation: 0.89) and 0.26 dB (standard deviation: 0.87) for LAeq,16hr and Lnight.