Anonymous parties have put together a Project 2025 Tracker. They pulled out and listed all the individual policy recommendations in the document, and are trying to track which are complete, in progress, or not started. As I write, they put the agenda at 42% complete.
I would break the recommendations down into three categories: (1) Christian/White Nationalism, (2) Homophobia, and (3) Rich and Powerful/Big Business Giveaways.
Here is an interactive chart of greenhouse gas concentrations from the World Meteorological Organization. It does look to me like there has been an acceleration in methane concentrations since around 2020.
Zillow has some data on how much above average home prices are by month of the year and by US city. In general, prices are higher by about 1-3% in March-June. I assume this has something to do with the U.S. school year. It may be somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy though. Last time I was in the home buying market, which was almost exactly 10 years ago, I started looking for listings in January, but there really was nothing to look at until March. So people in my city (Philadelphia) don’t start listing until March, and by the time you go through the process it seems like most closings are going to be in the May-June time frame (precisely when mine was). I wonder if refinancings show up as home sales in this data though, or if they have some way of knowing when the properties actually change hands. That could skew the data because people can refinance any time of year, and they are likely to refinance when interest rates are relatively low and prices therefore relatively high.
This is interesting. It is not 100% clear to me what the measure of accuracy is below, but the plot shows how much weather forecasting has improved over the last 50 years or so. A 3-5 day forecast is highly accurate now, and 3-5 are not that different. It’s interesting to me that there is such as large drop off in accuracy between a 7 and 10 day forecast – that is not necessarily intuitive, but useful even in everyday life. A 10-day forecast is basically a coin flip, while check back 3 days later and you are closer to 80/20 odds. This is based on pressure measured at a certain height I think, so it doesn’t necessarily mean forecasts of precipitation depth and intensity, rain vs. snow vs. ice, thunder and lightning, tornadoes, etc. are going to be as accurate as this implies.
There is some suggesting that AI (meaning purely statistical approaches, or AI choosing any blend of statistics and physics it wants?) might make forecasting much faster, cheaper, and easier yet again.
For something random and different (but hey, it’s meteorological spring right?), here are some wildflowers native to the U.S. that can be grown from bulbs.
It’s nice to grow plants from seed for genetic variety, but bulbs certainly have their place. It’s good to know there are good native choices (well, I don’t know if these are choices down at my local Lowes/Home Depot, but they should be).
This is some seriously dark humor. But ha ha, also so true. You have to scroll forever to get to your recipe, and at least for me the mobile version of any recipe site is infuriating because it constantly crashes. And yet…what is also true is recipe websites have made our world better. Instead of winging a recipe, or relying on one book you happen to have lying around, you can find out the ingredients, measurements, and even watch a video of how to make it well. You can even look at several versions of a dish, then wing it, and it will usually come out pretty well. And if you wing it in the future, it will come out better than if the recipe sites did not exist. So thank you, recipe sites.
Here is something useful (to me, personally, and maybe too others), and thankfully not too pessimistic or morally fraught.
A Crash Course in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using R – yes, please! We must end the tyranny of the monopolistic Environmental Systems “Research Institute”. Okay, they make some nice products, but just admit you are a rapacious for-profit corporation, please!
A ggplot2 Tutorial for Beautiful Plotting in R – Who doesn’t need to improve their data visualization and communication game?
CDC has released a new wastewater monitoring dashboard, according to Forbes, which oddly does not link to the new dashboard or even tell us the name of it so it would be easy to find. Wastewater monitoring to me seems like a very useful tool in the toolbox to monitor public health and diseases of concern, whether common or exotic, well known or emerging.
This app is supposed to measure cognitive impairment from alcohol, drugs, and fatigue.
Grounded in cognitive neuroscience, Druid is a breakthrough technology. It brings you a sophisticated tool that measures impairment from any cause, including cannabis and other drugs, alcohol, fatigue, illness, injury, chronic condition, or severe stress. Druid operates like a video game while it measures hundred of neurophysiological indicators.
Google Play
Seems useful for a variety of purposes. And employers could use it for a variety of legitimate purposes, such as maybe testing pilots and surgeons? People who aren’t able to do their jobs safely because they are tired or stressed shouldn’t get fired obviously, they should get to rest. You can certainly imagine employers and law enforcement using this app abusively. As for driving safely, let’s just turn that over to the computers already.
His new book is called End Times but it does not appear to be about the apocalypse, but about a cyclical view of political history with some evidence to back it up.
When a state, such as the United States, has stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, declining public trust, and exploding public debt, these seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related to each other dynamically. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability. In the United States, all of these factors started to turn in an ominous direction in the 1970s. The data pointed to the years around 2020 when the confluence of these trends was expected to trigger a spike in political instability.
Peter Turchin
I haven’t read the book, but I have officially added it to my queue of too-many-books-to-read-before-I die. (I’m not terminally ill that I know of, it’s just a long and growing list.) The queue is periodically randomized, so just because it already has too many books to read before I die does not mean I will never read this particular book.
Anyway, one disturbing implication just from the brief description above is that we may not be able to educate our society out of economic inequality. That seems to go against the data which clearly show that people with more education earn more than people with less education. So it’s a case where a dynamic model leads to a different, counterintuitive conclusion compared to a linear extrapolation of data from the recent past.