Category Archives: Peer Reviewed Article Review

rain measurement using cameras

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This article is about estimating rainfall using ordinary surveillance camera footage and computer algorithms to process the videos. Measuring rainfall with physical rain gauges is subject to a lot of error, and so far the only real way to reduce the uncertainty is to add more gauges, which of course costs money. Radar can be used to improve our knowledge of what is going on in the spaces between rain gauges, but ultimately the radar-based estimates still end up being calibrated to the gauges. New methods to improve accuracy for a given gauge coverage, and/or reduce cost and gauge coverage while maintaining accuracy, would be welcome.

Advancing opportunistic sensing in hydrology: a novel approach to measuring rainfall with ordinary surveillance cameras

“Opportunistic sensing” represents an appealing idea for collecting unconventional data with broad spatial coverage and high resolution, but few studies have explored its feasibility in hydrology. This study develops a novel approach to measuring rainfall intensity in real‐world conditions based on videos acquired by ordinary surveillance cameras. The proposed approach employs a convex optimization algorithm to effectively decompose a rainy image into two layers: a pure rain‐streak layer and a rain‐free background layer, where the rain streaks represent the motion blur of falling raindrops. Then, it estimates the instantaneous rainfall intensity via geometrical optics and photographic analyses. We investigated the effectiveness and robustness of our approach through synthetic numerical experiments and field tests. The major findings are as follows. First, the decomposition‐based identification algorithm can effectively recognize rain streaks from complex backgrounds with many disturbances. Compared to existing algorithms that consider only the temporal changes in grayscale between frames, the new algorithm successfully prevents false identifications by considering the intrinsic visual properties of rain streaks. Second, the proposed approach demonstrates satisfactory estimation accuracy and is robust across a wide range of rainfall intensities. The proposed approach has a mean absolute percentage error of 21.8%, which is significantly lower than those of existing approaches reported in the literature even though our approach was applied to a more complicated scene acquired using a lower‐quality device. Overall, the proposed low‐cost, high‐accuracy approach to vision‐based rain gauging significantly enhances the possibility of using existing surveillance camera networks to perform opportunistic hydrology sensing.

Cuba “sonic attacks” may have been caused by crickets

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Well, the evidence is not conclusive. Medical experts have examined people suffering symptoms after spending time at the U.S. embassy in Cuba, and at least some have concluded that they suffered some kind of injury. But this article somewhat conclusively argues that a recording released by embassy personnel to the press is actually crickets.

Recording of “sonic attacks” on U.S. diplomats in Cuba spectrally matches the echoing call of a Caribbean cricket

Beginning in late 2016, diplomats posted to the United States embassy in Cuba began to experience unexplained health problems including ear pain, tinnitus, vertigo, and cognitive difficulties which reportedly began after they heard strange noises in their homes or hotel rooms. In response, the U.S. government dramatically reduced the number of diplomats posted at the U.S. embassy in Havana. U.S. officials initially believed a sonic attack might be responsible for their ailments. The sound linked to these attacks, which has been described as a high-pitched beam of sound, was recorded by U.S. personnel in Cuba and released by the Associated Press (AP). Because these recordings are the only available non-medical evidence of the sonic attacks, much attention has focused on identifying health problems and the origin of the acoustic signal. As shown here, the calling song of the Indies short-tailed cricket (Anurogryllus celerinictus) matches, in nuanced detail, the AP recording in duration, pulse repetition rate, power spectrum, pulse rate stability, and oscillations per pulse. The AP recording also exhibits frequency decay in individual pulses, a distinct acoustic signature of cricket sound production. While the temporal pulse structure in the recording is unlike any natural insect source, when the cricket call is played on a loudspeaker and recorded indoors, the interaction of reflected sound pulses yields a sound virtually indistinguishable from the AP sample. This provides strong evidence that an echoing cricket call, rather than a sonic attack or other technological device, is responsible for the sound in the released recording. Although the causes of the health problems reported by embassy personnel are beyond the scope of this paper, our findings highlight the need for more rigorous research into the source of these ailments, including the potential psychogenic effects, as well as possible physiological explanations unrelated to sonic attacks.

emergy

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There are still people working on emergy (embodied energy) as an accounting and system simulation system. This group is in Brazil.

Contribution of the Paraconsistent Tri-Annotated Logic to emergy accounting and decision making

The process of decision-making is a complex task that can become more challenging if the information provided by indicators is contradictory. Emergy accounting is an environmental accounting methodology that has been used to guide environmental decision making. In this paper we propose a comprehensive tool to support decision-making in emergy accounting. Paraconsistent Logic is a non-classic logic, which can aid in decision-making when the investigator is confronted with contradictory results. Paraconsistent Tri-Annotated Logic (PL3v) is proposed as a decision tool to compare different systems and allow selection of those alternatives with the best performance from the standpoint of sustainability defined in emergy terms. The rationale behind our selection of a set of emergy indicators to assess sustainability included such factors as increased efficiency, setting a priority for local resource use and minimization of the use of non-renewable resources. Two actual examples from the literature that resulted in contradictory evidence of system sustainability were compared within the framework of PL3v. Emergy indicators that correspond to positive evidence of sustainability (i.e., those that show increased efficiency and greater local resource use) were assigned as two favorable logic measures of sustainability. The PL3v analysis is completed with the identification of evidence that is unfavorable to sustainability, which is given by a third indicator negatively correlated with sustainability (i.e., non-renewable resource use). Operationally, the methodology proposed the normalization of the indicator values between [0,1] to fit to the PL3v annotation framework. Comparison of the systems examined is presented through the Paraconsistent Logic approach with the aid of a graphical representation and the calculation of the degree of certainty related to the truthfulness of the sustainability proposition.

Bridging the Gap Between National and Ecosystem Accounting

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This study estimated the value of a forest in Spain at more than five times what is estimated using standard national accounting methods (GDP, I assume). If this is the case, it suggests to me that the idea of just tweaking GDP to include ecosystem services isn’t going to work. The article is open access.

National accounting either ignores or fails to give due values to the ecosystem services, products, incomes and environmental assetsof a country. To overcome these shortcomings, we apply spatially-explicit extended accounts that incorporate a novel environmental income indicator, which we test in the forests of Andalusia (Spain). Extended accounts incorporate nine farmer activities (timber, cork, firewood, nuts, livestock grazing, conservation forestry, hunting, residential services and private amenity) and seven government activities (fire services, free access recreation, free access mushroom, carbon, landscape conservation, threatened biodiversity and water yield). To make sure the valuation remains consistent with standard accounts, we simulate exchange values for non-market final forest product consumption in order to measure individual ecosystem services and environmental income indicators. Manufactured capital and environmental assets are also integrated. When comparing extended to standard accounts, our results are 3.6 times higher for gross value added. These differences are explained primarily by the omission in the standard accounts of carbon activities and undervaluation of private amenity, free access recreation, landscape and threatened biodiversity ecosystem services. Extended accounts measure a value of Andalusian forest ecosystem services 5.4 times higher than that measured using the valuation criteria of standard accounts.

Nature – global warming will happen faster than we think

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The title of this article in Nature pretty much says it all. The authors make a case that the IPCC is underestimating the risk of a rapid deterioration in the climate situation. There are a couple counter-intuitive points here. First, there is good news about air pollution, particularly in China. This is good news for public health in the near term, but paradoxically the air pollution has actually been bad enough in recent years to measurably block sunlight. Second, there really is a non-manmade component to global warming, and it may be significant in the coming decades. This is not good news at all, because the manmade component is of course very real, and the two are additive.

ecosystem restoration and carbon sequestration

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Ecosystem and soil restoration could offset around a fifth of U.S. carbon emissions, according to this article in Science Advances.

Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands—to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO2e year−1, the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO2e), 299 Tg CO2e year−1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.

microdosing

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There are people taking small doses of LSD and other psychedelics every day for their possible/suspected health benefits, and there may actually be some science behind this.

Microdosing psychedelics – the regular consumption of small amounts of psychedelic substances such as LSD or psilocybin – is a growing trend in popular culture. Recent studies on full-dose psychedelic psychotherapy reveal promising benefits for mental well-being, especially for depression and end-of-life anxiety. While full-dose therapies include perception-distorting properties, microdosing may provide complementary clinical benefits using lower-risk, non-hallucinogenic doses. No experimental study has evaluated psychedelic microdosing, however; this pre-registered study is the first to investigate microdosing psychedelics and mental health. Recruited from online forums, current and former microdosers scored lower on measures of dysfunctional attitudes and negative emotionality and higher on wisdom, open-mindedness, and creativity when compared to non microdosing controls. These findings provide promising initial evidence that warrants controlled experimental research to directly test safety and clinical efficacy. As microdoses are easier to administer than full-doses, this new paradigm has the exciting potential to shape future psychedelic research.

Oumuamua

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I tracked down the Harvard astrophysics paper that suggests this object could be an alien spacecraft or probe. They never say that it is one, only that its behavior would be consistent with one. Sadly, it seems like we missed the boat and it is too late to train our telescopes or send probes of our own in time to get a good look at the thing, so the best we can do is be on the lookout for others like it in the future.

“organic” eating may lower cancer risk after all

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I haven’t always been on the “organic” band wagon 100%. For one thing, the name is stupid. Chugging a glass of diesel fuel would be about as organic as you could get, in terms of the definition of the word I learned in high school chemistry. I am strongly in favor of sustainable farming practices that build soil, protect biodiversity, and prevent groundwater and surface water pollution. But in terms of health benefits, I have never felt the benefits were all that proven, and to some extent the industry is just based on scare tactics. I also wonder if the billions of humans on the planet can be fed without resorting to fossil fuel-derived fertilizer, and I still think that is dubious. But here is one large study in JAMA that did find significant evidence of a link between organic food (as labeled at the grocery store) and reduced cancer risk.

Association of Frequency of Organic Food Consumption With Cancer Risk: Findings From the NutriNet-Santé Prospective Cohort Study

Main Outcomes and Measures This study estimated the risk of cancer in association with the organic food score (modeled as quartiles) using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for potential cancer risk factors.

Results Among 68 946 participants (78.0% female; mean [SD] age at baseline, 44.2 [14.5] years), 1340 first incident cancer cases were identified during follow-up, with the most prevalent being 459 breast cancers, 180 prostate cancers, 135 skin cancers, 99 colorectal cancers, 47 non-Hodgkin lymphomas, and 15 other lymphomas. High organic food scores were inversely associated with the overall risk of cancer (hazard ratio for quartile 4 vs quartile 1, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.88; P for trend = .001; absolute risk reduction, 0.6%; hazard ratio for a 5-point increase, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.96).

Conclusions and Relevance A higher frequency of organic food consumption was associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Although the study findings need to be confirmed, promoting organic food consumption in the general population could be a promising preventive strategy against cancer.

I researched the risk measures a little. The hazard risk ratio of 0.75 means that people eating mostly organic food (scoring in the top 25% of however they are measuring that) are 25% less likely than people eating the least organic food. That seems significant. From a quick skim, it appears they did try to control for differences in lifestyle (i.e., similar nutrition and exercise levels) and family history of cancer when coming to their conclusions.

the quantum internet

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A paper in Nature explains what a “quantum internet” could look like.

In stage 1, users will start getting into the quantum game, in which a sender creates quantum states, typically for photons. These would be sent to a receiver, either along an optical fibre or through a laser pulse beamed across open space. At this stage, any two users will be able to create a private encryption key that only they know…

In stage 2, the quantum internet will harness the powerful phenomenon of entanglement. Its first goal will be to make quantum encryption essentially unbreakable. Most of the techniques that this stage requires already exist, at least as rudimentary lab demonstrations.

Stages 3 to 5 will, for the first time, enable any two users to store and exchange quantum bits, or qubits. These are units of quantum information, similar to classical 1s and 0s, but they can be in a superposition of both 1 and 0 simultaneously. Qubits are also the basis for quantum computation. (A number of laboratories — both in academia and at large corporations, such as IBM or Google — have been building increasingly complex quantum computers; the most advanced ones have memories that can hold a few dozen qubits.)

So it seems as though the main advantage of a quantum internet would be truly secure communications. Which I guess is at least something, but doesn’t seem as though it would revolutionize everyday life anytime soon. There are no predictions in this article about when it might happen other than “a long time”.