Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

social insects and disease

This article in Wired says social insects like ants and bees have a variety of behaviors that reduce pathogen spread in their crowded colonies. They range from obvious ones like keeping the nest clean and keeping waste outside, to forms of social distancing where they reduce the number of other individuals they are interacting with. Some species also swap body fluids intentionally to spread antibodies, which reminds me of the old stories where mom puts all the kids in bed with the first one to catch the mumps or chicken pox.

I’ve always found ants interesting because there are enormous numbers of them, rivaling or exceeding human biomass, they build cities and transportation systems and hunt and gather and farm and fight each other, and yet they don’t negatively impact the environment. They are the environment and nobody ever asks whether their population or their consumption patterns exceeds the planet’s carrying capacity. They also adapt just fine to all kinds of novel and damaged ecosystems that we are creating.

July 2020 in Review

Coronavirus certainly continues to be the main thing going on in current events globally. I just don’t have a lot of new or insightful things to say about it. Here’s some other stuff I read and thought about in July. WITH THE STUPID WORDPRESS BLOCK EDITOR, I CAN’T SEEM TO PUT A SPACE BETWEEN THESE PARAGRAPHS NO MATTER WHAT I DO. Most frightening and/or depressing story:
  • Here’s the elevator pitch for why even the most hardened skeptic should care about climate change. We are on a path to (1) lose both polar ice caps, (2) lose the Amazon rain forest, (3) lose our productive farmland, and (4) lose our coastal population centers. If all this comes to pass it will lead to mass starvation, mass refugee flows, and possibly warfare. Unlike even major crises like wars and pandemics, by the time it is obvious to everyone that something needs to be done, there will be very little that can be done.
Most hopeful story:
  • In the U.S. every week since schools and businesses shut down in March, about 85 children lived who would otherwise have died. Most of these would have died in and around motor vehicles.
Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both:
  • The world seems to be experiencing a major drop in the fertility rate. This will lead to a decrease in the rate of population growth, changes to the size of the work force relative to the population, and eventually a decrease in the population itself.

10% drop in vehicle miles traveled predicted long-term

KPMG says some of the sharp reduction in vehicle miles traveled during the coronavirus crisis is likely to be permanent, with people getting used to working from home and shopping online. The numbers they came up with are a 9-10% reduction in vehicle miles traveled (this factors in both a decrease in personal vehicles and an increase in delivery vehicles, if I understand the article) and a drop in car ownership from 1.97 to 1.87 per household.

what’s new with genetic engineering

The Week has a roundup.

  • Genetically modified mosquitoes are set to be released in Florida this year and Texas next year. They pass along a gene to their offspring that causes them to die as larvae, potentially wiping out a particularly nasty species that can spread all kinds of disease like Zika, West Nile, and Dengue fever. I know lots of people who have had Dengue fever and it’s nasty. It surprises me we don’t have it in the U.S. yet when we have the mosquitoes now that carry it. Our winter must be just a tiny bit too cool, and how long will that last. The article points out that birds and bats eat mosquitoes. That is certainly true. I tend to think some other little critter will just fill the niche left by the mosquitoes, but we’ll see. Hopefully the birds will have something to eat. As for the bats, I’m kind of mad at them right now.
  • Similar technology is being used to target the diamondback moth and army worm, agricultural pests.
  • University of Georgia made the first genetically modified reptile last year.
  • Genetically modified salmon are already in commercial production.
  • Plants are being modified to absorb more carbon dioxide. (This one actually concerns me. If you release plants that can outcompete native plants that a broad range of insects rely on, there goes your entire food chain. This seems much riskier than targeting one type of insect at a time.)

Covid Act Now

This is a new site that gives a Covid risk rating based on five indicators: daily new cases, infection rate, test positivity, ICU headroom, and contacts traced. They try to give the same information by county, but they only have the data to provide a couple of the indicators at the county level. I know this data exists for my county, but it must be collected and stored (or not) differently in different counties and different states, so that there is no single organized database of it. This is the kind of thing the federal government could provide leadership on, and once again, they are just failing us in epic fashion.

I’ve added this to my running list of Covid data and simulation sites.

George H.W. Bush’s September 11 Speech

No, not that George Bush. And not that September 11th. This speech was given shortly after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. I remember being impressed by the lofty rhetoric at the time. I had turned 15 just a few days earlier. My family had actually been sight-seeing in Washington D.C. when the invasion happened, and I remember a buzz in the air. Great power competition was over, peace and democracy and human rights and the rule of law were supposedly ascendant.

Our objectives in the Persian Gulf are clear, our goals defined and familiar:

Iraq must withdraw from Kuwait completely, immediately and without condition.

Kuwait’s legitimate government must be restored.

The security and stability of the Persian Gulf must be assured.

Americans citizens abroad must be protected.

These goals are not ours alone. They have been endorsed by the U.N. Security Council five times in as many weeks. Most countries share our concern for principle. And many have a stake in the stability of the Persian Gulf. This is not, as Saddam Hussein would have it, the United States against Iraq. It is Iraq against the world.

As you know, I’ve just returned from a very productive meeting with Soviet President Gorbachev. I am pleased that we are working together to build a new relationship. In Helsinki, our joint statement affirmed to the world our shared resolve to counter Iraq’s threat to peace. Let me quote: “We are united in the belief that Iraq’s aggression must not be tolerated. No peaceful international order is possible if larger states can devour their smaller neighbors.”

Clearly, no longer can a dictator count on East-West confrontation to stymie concerted U.N. action against aggression.

A new partnership of nations has begun.

We stand today at a unique and extraordinary moment. The crisis in the Persian Gulf, as grave as it is, also offers a rare opportunity to move toward an historic period of cooperation. Out of these troubled times, our fifth objective – a new world order – can emerge: a new era, freer from the threat of terror, stronger in the pursuit of justice, and more secure in the quest for peace. An era in which the nations of the world, east and west, north and south, can prosper and live in harmony.

A hundred generations have searched for this elusive path to peace, while a thousand wars raged across the span of human endeavor. Today that new world is struggling to be born. A world quite different from the one we’ve known. A world where the rule of law supplants the rule of the jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where the strong respect the rights of the weak.

This is the vision I shared with President Gorbachev in Helsinki. He, and other leaders from Europe, the gulf, and around the world, understand that how we manage this crisis today could shape the future for generations to come.

The test we face is great – and so are the stakes. This is the first assault on the new world we seek, the first test of our mettle. Had we not responded to this first provocation with clarity of purpose; if we do not continue to demonstrate our determination; it would be a signal to actual and potential despots around the world.

America and the world must defend common vital interests. And we will.

America and the world must support the rule of law. And we will.

America and the world must stand up to aggression. And we will.

And one thing more. In pursuit of these goals America will not be intimidated.

Vital issues of principle are at stake. Saddam Hussein is literally trying to wipe a country off the face of the earth.

We do not exaggerate.

Nor do we exaggerate when we say: Saddam Hussein will fail.

Vital economic interests are at risk as well. Iraq itself controls some 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. Iraq plus Kuwait controls twice that. An Iraq permitted to swallow Kuwait would have the economic and military power, as well as the arrogance, to intimidate and coerce its neighbors – neighbors who control the lion’s share of the world’s remaining oil reserves. We cannot permit a resource so vital to be dominated by one so ruthless. And we won’t.

Recent events have surely proven that there is no substitute for American leadership. In the face of tyranny, let no one doubt American credibility and reliability.

Let no one doubt our staying power. We will stand by our friends.

George H.W. Bush, September 11, 1990

So was I just an impressionable 15-year-old taken in by the rhetoric? What does my cynical middle-aged self think? Well, I still think it was a damn nice speech. The U.S. was going to lead the world’s powerful nations through the United Nations in standing up to cross-border aggression against a sovereign nation. We did that, achieved that limited objective, and got out. Everyone except Iraqi soldiers and civilians was happy. Did it make the world safer for giant oil companies that make giant campaign contributions to U.S. politicians for awhile? Sure. But it was a predictable, restrained use of power that other nations (except Iraq) did not feel threatened by. Our strategy and goals have been muddled ever since, and we have lost our credibility and reliability and leadership position. We need to understand that other countries are simply afraid of us because it seems like we can turn on them at any moment. We can learn something from the vision laid out in this speech.

“jaw dropping” reduction in global fertility rate

A study in Lancet says the data are starting to show large reductions in global fertility rates, which are likely to lead to declining population growth and then a declining population as the century wears on.

The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33–2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84–10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83–11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91–2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China’s population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098.

Lancet

In my time living, working and traveling in Southeast Asia, I saw firsthand that at least some highly educated women are choosing to prioritize career over marriage and children. That pattern may be taking hold on a larger scale as larger countries move from middle income to higher income. Opportunities and choices for women are a good thing, of course, but there are some concerns about who will do the work and pay the taxes in such a world. We’re fretting about the effects of automation on employment, but if the work force is going to shrink anyway, and the jobs that do remain are going to require more education and skills, it seems like there is an opportunity to try to pair the pace of automation to the pace of natural work force reduction. The solutions are nothing new – we need to invest in childcare, education, training, research and development, unemployment insurance, and strong pension systems. We may need stronger measures to share the wealth, like a universal endowment at birth or a universal basic income.

Then there’s environmental impact. Malthus aside, without policy changes the effects of a population that is becoming more affluent and consuming more will probably outweigh the effects of a shrinking human population. We can’t just keep paving the world, pumping the groundwater, massively altering the oceans and atmosphere, driving more and eating more meat forever and expect it not to catch up to us.

how to fix international relations after Trump

Well, here are some ideas anyway, from Joseph Nye, a professor at Harvard. The basic idea is to “establish rules-based international institutions with different membership for different issues.” In other words, isolate issues and then try to form groups that will be able to reach consensus on each narrow issue.

  • Countries like Russia and China are likely to accept a return to the idea of respect for sovereignty as defined in the UN charter. This allows some bad things to happen within borders, of course, and doesn’t solve disputed borders, but it used to limit cross-border military action and allow for joint international peace keeping missions in smaller troubled countries in less strategic areas.
  • Reboot the World Trade Organization with new international rules rather than bilateral or regional agreements.
  • Continue international financial cooperation, which he says is actually a bright spot.
  • “International ecological cooperation” – he says this has to override sovereignty. Not a lot of specifics here, but a return to the climate treaty and reinvigorating the WHO would certainly be a starting point. I would suggest we need to start taking biodiversity seriously, and also have a look at the long-term stability of the global food supply. Surely this last is something everyone can agree on?
  • Cyberspace – not a lot of specifics, but new agreements and norms are needed. Nuclear and biological weapons are not mentioned, and in fact weapons in general are not mentioned (drones, autonomous weapons, missiles, mines, space weapons?), and I would suggest adding these. Anything that will reduce risk in the short term will buy time to figure out a long term plan to give our species and civilization to make it.

how to fix the U.S. Constitution

John Davenport, a professor (of philosophy?) at Fordham University, has some proposals to fix parts of the U.S. Constitution that he says are outdated. I am 100% on board with cleaning up election finance and clarifying the speech rights of corporations. Others I hadn’t thought about as constitutional amendments, but I think all these ideas are worth considering.

  • Changes to how we do elections: “rotation of early primaries among all our states, automatic runoffs on ranked-choice ballots, fair district lines, and uniform federal requirements for election integrity”
  • “overturning the Citizens United precedent through an amendment that establishes voter-owned elections with public financing of campaigns, very strict limits on all private donations, and requirements for candidates in all federal races (and all cabinet appointees) to disclose ten years of tax records. The amendment should include a clear statement that corporations—whether for-profit or nonprofit —do not have the same rights to spend on “speech” as real persons. Political advertising by corporations and large PACs should be strictly limited.”
  • 10-year gap between serving in Congress and working as a lobbyist, restrictions on all federal officials going to work for industry they were regulating (he doesn’t say how long), restrict access of lobbyists to federal officials, and use tax law to further limit lobbying (he doesn’t say how)
  • get rid of the Senate filibuster, and allow 55% of House members to force a vote (maybe, but consensus is a worthy ideal, and you can’t have 55% of the population voting to gas the other 45%)
  • 18-year term limits in the Supreme Court, which would mean exactly two appointed during each 4-year presidential term. If a justice retires or dies during their term, he suggests picking a lower federal judge by lottery to serve out the remainder of their term. Congress would also be required to vote on judicial appointments within six months (or what, they are automatically confirmed?)
  • Now to limit future Presidents: clarify what constitutes an illegal campaign contribution, treason, contempt of Congress, what justifies impeachment, and require blind trusts.
  • 10 year terms for the Attorney General and director of the FBI, and dismissing them requires agreement between the President and three-fifths of the House
  • limits to appointing family to government positions
  • naturalized citizens qualify for any office after 20 years

This all sounds pretty good. I think we have an enormous amount of inertia built into the system though because any individual or small group of politicians who support the campaign finance measures would pretty easily be ousted by those who do not. It’s like disarmament – everyone giving up the weapons all at once is the best solution for everyone, but those who can trick the rest into doing it while they hold on to theirs would then be able to blow up the others. Corporate and special interest money are the electoral weapons of mass destruction that all parties should give up simultaneously as the best outcome, but instead of arms talks we seem to be in an arms race with no end in site. We’ve had a couple relatively strong leaders make a push on this (Ralph Nader, Bernie Sanders) and they’ve come up short. The “mainstream politicians” always argue that it would be nice to give up the weapons, but the other side won’t do it and we have to win before we have any chance to reform the system from within. Then they get elected, and the cycle repeats.

There is also the small matter of the U.S. Constitution being our king and god. Seriously, we don’t have a sovereign ruling by divine right, so we treat the Constitution almost as a holy text that should be changed infrequently and only with a damn good reason. And there is some advantage in this – constitutions have come and gone in almost all other countries since 1783, while the U.S. form of government has proven pretty stable. The flip side of stability is resistance to change. The system was intentionally designed that way, but maybe we have gone so long without tightening a few screws here and there to keep it from wobbling, and now big structural changes are needed to keep it from collapsing.

I would also get rid of the electoral college and the states, by the way. Or if I didn’t get rid of the states entirely, I would make it much easier to carve out new ones from bits and pieces of the old ones. State borders have zero cultural, economic, or physical significance. Their time has come and gone and they are holding us back.

decrease in U.S. child deaths

This blog crunched the monthly numbers on death from all causes in the U.S. (something the CDC still manages to do well) and came up with an unexpected result: the number of children (under 18) who died each week since mid-March is down 15-20% compared to the long-term average. The conclusion? Children have not been in and around cars, and CARS KILL CHILDREN. “15-20%” seems a bit abstract, but it means 85 U.S. children per week DID NOT DIE, who otherwise would have been killed by cars. Cars are a worldwide serial killer of children – why do we put up with it? Our children need to be able to walk or bike to school, and we all need safe walking and biking infrastructure that is completely separated and protected from cars. Now!

The blogger is a self-described climate change skeptic by they way, and I don’t full endorse all of his views, and there are many nuances to the data that he made choices how to deal with. So have a look and make up your own mind, but I actually find it convincing.