Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

how to collect more taxes without raising taxes

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This Alternet article explains how the IRS has been defunded and hobbled over the last few decades. The rich are able to lobby for all kinds of loopholes and then find ways to exploit them, of course, but even if they outright cheat they are unlikely to get caught. Working people are audited at much higher rates. Audits for the rich and powerful are way down, and tax fraud prosecutions have been almost nonexistent under Trump. The article estimates $47.5 billion could be collected by auditing rich people. It’s good to keep that in perspective though of the annual federal budget of 4-5 trillion. So it would be a one-time recovery of around 1% of the budget. It would be enough to get a baby bond program going. You could give about $11,000 to each of the 4 million babies born in the U.S. in one year (but only that one year), or you could give less and spread it out over more years, or you could give it just to poor babies and spread it out.

Is Exxon going down?

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We saw the value of coal companies collapse a few years ago, and it doesn’t seem like they are coming back. Could oil be next?

The big picture: Today,ExxonMobil is not even in the top 40 most valuable companies in America. It’s losing money, cutting staff, and stretching to maintain an unsustainable dividend…

Exxon has lost 54% of its value this year alone. That’s some $163 billion. By contrast, Chevron is down 42%, or $95 billion, while NextEra is up 23%, or $26 billion.

Felix Salmon, The Week

This drop in value could be a result of the Covid recession, if you ask me, and oil could come roaring back in the medium term, if you ask me. But the longer term story is one of renewables slowly but surely taking over.

Oil is a product that our civilization wants and needs to function. I don’t really blame companies for producing that product. Governments should have put an appropriate tax on the negative social and environmental consequences of it a long time ago. But there is a special level in hell for Exxon and some of its past leaders, because they knew the reality of global warming decades ago, and their decades of propaganda war against the American public have a lot to do with what many people believe about climate change today, and the failure of our political system to prepare and meet the challenge for at least 20 years, if not 50 years.

what’s new with legalizing drugs

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I am in favor of legalizing drugs, taxing them, and creating a universal health system able to deal with substance abuse and mental health issues. I believe this would result in a big reduction in violence and the prison population almost immediately. It turns out there is a ballot measure in Oregon to decriminalize possession of small amounts of all types of drugs (which hasn’t been voted on as I write this, but probably will have been when this posts.)

IT’S OVER! CALL IT, YOU PUSSIES!!!

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Update: I wrote the post below (and the headline above) around 8:30 a.m. on Saturday, November 7, 2020. All the major networks called the race around 11:30 a.m.

That was a public service announcement to the news media of the United States of America as I write this on Saturday, November 7, 2020. I did kind of describe the almost exact scenario that happened in my official election prediction post the other day. The only thing is, that was my “unexpected” scenario.

In the “I told you so” category, here is what I said on January 31: “I think the odds favor Biden, a Democratic House, and a Republican Senate.”

It’s over. But Trump voters are going to have a hard time accepting the result. Before I judge too harshly, I think back to 2000 when I had a hard time accepting the result and tried to talk myself into believing the election had been stolen. I didn’t quite succeed – that election in Florida was essentially a tie, and the Bush vs. Gore case was so technical I don’t think anyone without a law degree can come close to understanding it.

You can find election coverage elsewhere, I think I have it out of my system! I’m sure I’ll have some thoughts about policy going forward. I think Biden will basically spend a year trying to deal with coronavirus, followed by three years of trying to restore the Obama center-right, pro-business, pro-war status quo. Republicans politician will convince their followers that these center-right policies are far-left, and the wheel will turn. It will be interesting to see if Biden runs for re-election in four years, and interesting to see who the Republicans put up. Please, for the love of Christ, not Donald J. Trump! But we will see if it is a more mainstream pro-business, pro-war, dog-whistle Republican, or if there is someone out there able to speak to the Trump base but with a bit more finesse and charisma. That’s a scary thought.

checking in on the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

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Here is the status of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact according to its website. The website doesn’t say when it was last updated, however. (Seriously, that is always a good thing to add to any website covering current events.)

The National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by 16 jurisdictions possessing 196 electoral votes, including 4 small states (DE, HI, RI, VT), 8 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NM, OR, WA), 3 big states (CA, IL, NY), and the District of Columbia. The bill will take effect when enacted by states with 74 more electoral votes.  The bill has passed at least one chamber in 9 additional states with 88 more electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA).  A total of 3,408 state legislators from all 50 states have endorsed it.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation

There is a ballot measure in Colorado however to withdraw from the Compact. I am writing this on Saturday, October 31 (aka Halloween), but by the time it is posted that measure may have been voted on.

This is an initiative that favors population-dense urban areas and gets us closer to one-person, one vote. It is a move in the direction of democracy, but it is always going to be opposed by elected officials who represent rural areas and rural states. So, it’s not going to have an easy road.

October 2020 in Review

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In current events, this was just the month that the fall resurgence of Covid-19 exploded in the U.S. and around the world. Just a month when a new, controversial Supreme Court justice was sworn in. Just the last month leading up to the Biden-Trump election, amid a swirl of questions about a peaceful and orderly transfer of power if the voting goes the way the polls clearly say it is going to. Just a month when my home city erupted in “unrest” for the second time this year and the National Guard rolled in. (Incidentally, Joe Biden is also here as I write this on November 1, and I wonder if the National Guard rolling in is entirely a coincidence.)

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Global ecological collapse is most likely upon us, and our attention is elsewhere. The good news is we still have enough to eat (on average – of course we don’t get it to everyone who needs it), for now.

Most hopeful story: We have almost survived another four years without a nuclear war. Awful as Covid-19 has been, we will get through it despite the current administration’s complete failure to plan, prevent, prepare, respond or manage it. There would be no such muddling through a nuclear war.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: There are at least some bright ideas on how to innovate faster and better.

my official election prediction

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There’s plenty of election coverage out there, so who needs this post? Well, I’ve been looking for one source of information on when the swing state polls close, what the vote counting situation is, and what the current poll/forecast situation is. I don’t see all of that in one place so here, just for myself, is some info.

I’m a little partial to FiveThirtyEight, just because I’ve been following them for a few elections now. There are other polling and modeling sources out there. I got poll closing times from 270 to win.

Florida

  • Poll closing: 7:00 p.m. ET (for most of the state including all the sizable cities, except that little bit of the panhandle including Pensacola at 8:00 p.m. ET)
  • The counting situation, according to 538: Despite their bad reputation from that election year that shall not be named around the turn of the century, they expect to have most or all results within two hours of closing. They count absentee and mail-in votes in advance, so they just need to combine them with live results and it should result in a more or less complete count. Unless things are really really close, like, you know, that one year…
  • 538 poll average on Friday 10/30 around 4:30 p.m.: Biden +2.2%
  • 538 odds on Friday 10/30 around 4:30 p.m.: Biden 66/34

Georgia

  • Poll closing: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: quick. They’ve counted mail-in ballots in advance. They expect overseas ballots to trickle in, but things would have to be really close for those to matter.

Ohio

  • Poll closing: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: They count absentee ballots in advance, then in-person votes, but they will still count absentee ballots received up to November 13. So if it is close enough that outstanding mail-in ballots could make a difference, news organizations won’t call it on election night.

North Carolina

  • Poll closing: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: About 80% should be counted right away, and more over the next few hours. But then they will still count ballots arriving by November 12, so same story: news organizations won’t call it if it is close.

Texas

  • Poll closing: 8:00 ET (locations in the Central Time Zone, which is almost all of Texas), 9:00 PM (locations in the Mountain Time Zone, which is basically El Paso)
  • The counting situation: Almost everything early on election night. They will still count ballots received by 5 p.m. the day after election day.

Pennsylvania

  • Poll closing: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: Oh, my beloved home state. Pennsyltucky as some call it, but that is completely unfair to the great state of Kentucky which plans to count 90% of ballots on election night. Under state law, we will not start counting mail-in ballots until polls open on election day. The process is supposed to conclude around Friday. Enormous numbers of people have voted by mail, including yours truly. Republicans will tend to vote in person, Democrats by mail. The state is about equally split (basically the Philadelphia metro region and downtown Pittsburgh vs. pretty much everyone else). So it could look like things are trending Republican on election night, but there will be enormous numbers of outstanding ballots expected to skew Democratic. Pennylvania will also count ballots received up to three days after election day, as allowed in not one but two Supreme Court cases over the past few weeks. Bottom line, it seems unlikely this one will be called on election night.

Michigan

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “a few days”. They will start counting mail-in ballots one day early, but are not expecting to finish until around Friday.

Arizona

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “most” on election night

Iowa

  • Poll closing: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “most” on election night, and they are counting mail-in ballots early

Wisconsin

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “all results by Wednesday morning”

Nevada

  • Poll closing: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: expecting to get most votes from the Vegas area on election night, but counting all votes could take until November 10

Okay, so how might election night unfold. First, I went to 270 to Win’s interactive map. You can pre-populate it with a variety of forecasts from a variety of sources, which is cool. I stuck with 538. Then I turned all the states above into “tossups”. I gave Trump one bonus electoral vote from Maine’s second district, which I don’t know anything about or what to do with.

This starting point is: Biden 227, Trump 126 (remember, you need 270 to win)

Let’s do a scenario where things go unexpectedly well for Trump.

  • Florida closes and is counted quickly. Biden 227, Trump 155
  • Counting also goes well in Georgia. Biden 227, Trump 171
  • Let’s say things go well for Trump in Ohio (where he is a slight favorite), and news organizations are willing to call it: Biden 227, Trump 189
  • North Carolina is counted quickly and goes to Trump: Biden 227, Trump 204
  • Texas goes to Trump quickly and decisively: Biden 227, Trump 242
  • Pennsylvania: no call on election night
  • Michigan: no call on election night
  • Arizona goes to Biden: Biden 238, Trump 242
  • Iowa is counted quickly and goes to Trump: Biden 238, Trump 248
  • Wisconsin is not really close. Even with some outstanding ballots, let’s say news organizations call it for Biden on election night. Biden 248, Trump 248
  • Nevada is not really close, but let’s say there is no call on election night.

We are tied. We go to bed, and every politician in America from President on down starts running their mouth on Wednesday. Lawsuits ensue. But those votes from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada trickle in during the week, and Biden has substantial leads in all three. It would take an extraordinary amount of luck just for Trump to get close to 50/50 odds.

Here’s a more likely scenario, so let’s consider this my prediction:

  • Florida is called for Biden around 8 p.m. The call is made by the same news organizations that called Florida for Al Gore precisely 20 years ago, but they are much more conservative (in the statistical sense, meaning looking for a higher degree of certainty) these days. Biden 256, Trump 126
  • Georgia goes narrowly for Trump. Biden 256, Trump 142
  • Ohio goes to Trump. Biden 256, Trump 160
  • North Carolina is called for Biden around 9 p.m. Biden 271, Trump 160. IT’S OVER!!!
  • I’m going to stop doing math now. Texas and Iowa go narrowly to Trump, but Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada pile on for Biden late Tuesday night or sometime on Wednesday, and the route is on.
  • It doesn’t matter if Pennsylvania and Michigan take a long time to count their votes, but eventually they do, and the route becomes a landslide. I’ll call 300+ a landslide, although it certainly falls short of the near-sweep (525/538) Ronald Reagan pulled off in 1984. Like the guy or not, that was a clear victory.
  • My final prediction: Biden 334, Trump 204

Hurricane Zeta, or the benefits of a classical education

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I’m embarrassed that I had to look up where zeta falls in the Greek alphabet. No, it’s not at the end (that would be omega), it’s actually sixth.

Die Hard, a work of classical literature in its own right for those of us who grew up in the 1980s!

So how unusual is it to run through the Roman alphabet (no, America didn’t invent the alphabet) and have a named Category 2 Hurricane hit the mainland at the end of October? Well, I remember educational materials when I lived in Florida saying the Atlantic hurricane season lasts through October, and the Gulf season through November. But according to Jeff Masters, it’s not all that common.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University says Zeta is the strongest hurricane ever recorded so far to the west in the Gulf of Mexico this late in the year. If Zeta makes landfall as a hurricane, it will be sixth continental U.S. landfalling hurricane this year, tying 2020 with 1886 and 1985 for most continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes in a single Atlantic season on record.

Zeta will also be the fifth named storm to make landfall in Louisiana this year, along with Tropical Storm Cristobal, Tropical Storm Marco, Hurricane Laura, and Hurricane Delta. The previous record for most landfalls in a single season in Louisiana was four in 2002, when Tropical Storm Bertha, Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Isidore, and Hurricane Lili all made landfall.

Yale Climate Connections

Luckily, the New Orleans levees seem to have held fine in this one, although there were widespread power outages and a few deaths from things like electrocution in falling trees. Not everybody lives inside the levee system of course, and some people did have to evacuate from this storm. I’m actually reading a book about Katrina right now because I think it has important lessons for the Coronavirus situation and how we should plan for the next disaster, whatever it will be. (We might get ready for the next pandemic after this. Are we ready for the big earthquake we know is coming? What about a catastrophic meltdown of the electric or telecommunications system? What about a serious food shortage?)

what’s new with Kim Stanley Robinson

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Kim Stanley Robinson (who is a man named Kim – I covered this before) has a new book called The Ministry for the Future. In this article, Kim Stanley Robinson not only admits to being a socialist, but a “post-capitalist”. Basically, his plan is to get rid of capitalism and replace it with something much, much better. Something beautiful. And in this book, it sounds like he shows us what he thinks that could look like. It can’t be any less entertaining than Ralph Nader’s book Only the Super-Rich Can Save Us. (I’m just saying that was a book about serious ideas, that didn’t translate into a particularly entertaining work of fiction. Similarly, Kim Stanley Robinson can occasionally be heavy on ideas and world building, and a little lighter on engaging plots and characters, at least from my perspective. He has an astonishing first-class imagination though.)

I like it when authors talk about other ideas, authors and books that have interested them. He mentions a couple real-world economic systems that could be described as post-capitalist – the Mondragon system of the Basque region (which featured in his book 2312, as I recall) and another system in Kerala, India. He mentions Robert Bellamy’s Looking Backward: 2000-1887 and Thomas More’s Utopia. He talks about a number of his own books including New York 2140, Aurora, and Red Moon. He also mentions a movie (later a TV show?) called Snowpiercer that I hadn’t heard of, but the summary sounds intriguing:

In a future where a failed climate-change experiment has killed all life except for the lucky few who boarded the Snowpiercer, a train that travels around the globe, a new class system emerges.

IMDb

In a parallel universe where I have time to read and watch dumb movies, I will get a pizza and a six pack this weekend and settle in with some of these!