Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

one more Covid-19 dashboard

In the U.S., it feels like we are done with Covid. At least, for those of us who are vaccinated adults. For those of us with children, life is still not back to normal because even as we are being told we can return to the office, we can’t actually do that because the children are still home. And the world is clearly not done with Covid-19, as vaccination is proceeding slowly in many countries outside North America and Europe.

Anyway, here is one more simulation dashboard that shows an ensemble of simulations going forward up to four weeks. This might be useful to see if there are blips on the horizon when (if?) the kids really are allowed to go back to school in the fall. Here’s an article describing the site in MIT technology review.

causes of death during the Covid-19 crisis

CDC has a data table on excess deaths during the March-August 2020 period. Obviously, people died of Covid-19 itself, but they also died of other things indirectly caused by Covid-19.

  • 257,000 excess deaths compared to long-term average (I’m rounding numbers to the nearest thousand and nearest percent or so, although when I do math I will round after I do the math)
  • 174,000 due to Covid-19 disease itself – this is around 70% of the total, so 30% of the excess deaths were indirect (and/or random bad luck)
  • Drug overdoses were 13% higher than normal, but suicides were 6% lower than normal. These two things usually go together so there is a bit of a mystery here.
  • Homicides were 6% higher than normal. They don’t break down how much is domestic violence related versus street violence. I would imagine bar fights were down significantly.
  • “Unintentional injuries” were higher than normal. I imagine this is things like falls and drowning, but not motor vehicle crashes because those are separate. Maybe people hurt themselves doing things around the house. Unfortunately, we tend to take more risks doing similar activities around the house than if we were doing them at work.
  • Motor vehicle crashes were down slightly, but the drop was not statistically significant. Given the very significant drop in traffic last year, this suggests to me that deaths per mile traveled were high. I know pedestrian and bike deaths were disproportionately high last year. I would attribute a lot this to people driving faster and more recklessly on (perceived to be) empty streets and highways. This is unfortunate, but mostly human nature and needs to be solved by better street design. Solutions exist, we just need to reach out and grab them my fellow Americans!

So I think these data support the idea that street designs and a health care system that are at least average compared to modern developed countries would have saved U.S. lives during the pandemic, and would continue to save lives in the future. So can we have nice things or not?

May 2021 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story: The Colorado River basin is drying out.

Most hopeful story: An effective vaccine for malaria may be on the way. Malaria kills more children in Africa every year than Covid-19 killed people of all ages in Africa during the worst year of the pandemic. And malaria has been killing children every year for centuries and will continue long after Covid-19 is gone unless something is done.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: I learned about Lawrence Kohlberg, who had some ideas on the use of moral dilemmas in education.

masks, ventilation, and filtration work in schools; social distancing and plexiglass don’t do anything

There, I think my headline summarized by layman’s understanding of this study published by CDC. I’m hoping my (rising) third grader won’t have to wear a mask to school in the fall, but that wouldn’t be the end of the world. What I’m really hoping for is five full-time in-person school days, which kids really need for normal educational and social development at this point. Masks would be a small price to pay for that until younger children can be vaccinated, but really can we speed that up.

I’ll give the School District of Philadelphia some praise for comprehensive testing of its HVAC systems district wide, followed by correction of problems. What they found though was that many classrooms had no functioning ventilation at all! I suspect they were like that for many decades. How many flu epidemics ravaged the city in that time because this city has a culture of accepting amateurism, mediocrity, and incompetence? I want to see the pandemic money spent to bring school buildings up to date, starting with HVAC and air conditioning. Air conditioning isn’t a luxury these days. It’s getting hotter and this would mean the buildings could be used year-round which could have enormous benefits.

more UFOs from Harry Reid

Harry Reid learned how to swim in a brothel. That’s a fun fact is this NYT op-ed about UFOs. He talks about how he tried to destigmatize reportings of sightings by servicemen during his time in the Senate. He also talks about a new government report scheduled to come out in June although it “may be delayed”.

As for what they are:

What have I personally learned from official investigations into unidentified aerial phenomena so far? The truth, disappointing as it may be, is that there’s still a great deal we don’t understand. It’s unclear whether the U.F.O.s we have encountered could have been built by foreign adversaries, whether our pilots’ visual perception during some encounters was somehow distorted, or whether we truly have credible evidence of extraterrestrial visitations. There may be other, as yet unknown explanations for some of these strange sightings.

New York Times

In plain English, I would say there is an increasing consensus that UFO sightings are real, but there is also a significant likelihood of a terrestrial explanation. Better put Robert Mueller on it to make sure we get a clear and unambiguous report we can all agree on.

housing policy overview

A blogger on Planetizen has a good overview of what many professional planners and economists believe would make a real dent in the U.S. housing problem.

We support reforms to allow developers to build more affordable housing types (e.g., multiplexes, townhouses, and mid-rise multifamily) with unbundled parking (parking rented separately from housing, so car-free households are no longer forced to pay for costly parking spaces they don’t need) in walkable urban neighborhoods, including large-scale upzoning, eliminating parking minimums, reducing development fees and approval requirements for moderate-priced infill, plus subsidizing housing for families with special needs.

Most planners also support innovative home ownership models, such as housing cooperatives and co-housing, modest inclusivity requirements (not so high that they reduce housing production), subsidies for households with special needs such as disabilities and very low incomes, and, sometimes, special regulations such as rent controls to limit rent increases.

Planetizen

This sounds about right to me. There are a couple reasons it is hard to do in today’s U.S. The most obvious is the massive political corruption driven by the construction/road/auto/oil-industrial complex. It is hard for politicians, especially local ones, to resist these forces. The second is the consumer preference for auto-dependent suburban development. I would not take this choice away from anyone. I would just stop subsidizing it and make it no longer the only viable choice for most Americans. Many people would like to try out a walkable urban neighborhood, but assume that there is not one available that they could afford. And they would largely be right. There are just not enough of them, and even in the ones we have the public infrastructure (protected bike lanes, frequent/clean/reliable public transportation, parks and trees) lags far behind what the leading cities in Europe and even parts of South America are providing. (Asia is hopeless though.)

The final issue is that you just can’t combine widespread car ownership and use with a walkable urban neighborhood. You have to get the number of cars down, then use all that space you saved for more housing, open space, and other amenities. And obviously, you have to make sure people can still get around.

So the answer is pretty clear – remove density limits (upzone in the parlance) and parking requirements (actually these last two sound a lot like a “free market” to me), then offset some of the disadvantages of urban density with excellent public infrastructure and parks. You may still need some subsidies and non-profit options to help the poor, but ideally that needs to be done at least at the metropolitan area scale if not state/federal scale. It’s a fairly simple formula but a long game and a politically difficult one.

misleading the public about misleading the public

Rolling Stone (I admit, maybe not the #1 most prestigious, objective journalistic outlet) goes through the history of companies using propaganda to blame consumers that environmental problems are their fault, from smoking to litter to plastic waste (these last two being related) and now global warming.

Selling deadly poisonous products to children for decades gains you admission to one circle of hell. But decades of deliberate propaganda aimed at intentionally destroying nature and civilization to make a short-term profit? It’s the biggest crime in history.

what’s new with Starlink?

According to Verge, Starlink is an incredible engineering achievement, and it is…just not that great. It’s a slow, intermittent, inconsistent internet service nowhere near as good as cable, which is nowhere near as good or cheap as what other developed countries have had for some time now. They say it may improve as Starlink launches more satellites, but that is upsetting scientists, and the U.S. could do much better with policies that bring real competition to the telecom market.

actual footage inside Elon Musk’s subterranean lair – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – ELON MUSK IS A BOND VILLAIN!

Cicada Safari

Cicada Safari is a phone app (I’m going to stop saying “smartphone”, I know there are still simple phones out there, but if I’m talking about them I will be specific) that lets people upload reports of Cicadas, and lets you see where people are reporting them. I’m haven’t seen any here in Philadelphia yet. But I am happy to report their cousins the mosquitoes and spotted lanternflys have joined us in the past week or so.

jobs, jobs, jobs, families, infrastructure, and more jobs…and Richard Nixon, from the bottom of my heart go fuck yourself!

Adam Tooze has a nice visualization of Biden’s spending proposals. Is this a tree plot? a cartogram? I’m not sure, experts please weigh in. A few things I noticed:

  • What Biden talks most and least about does not always match the largest and smallest proposed spending amounts. I think this is called “messaging”. For example, more would be spent on electric vehicle subsidies than on community college.
  • There is no clear line between the infrastructure package and the families package. For example, there is spending on public schools in the former and child care facilities in the latter.

That’s just scratching the surface. You could (and should) stare at this graphic for hours, and then there is a long article to go with it. But I have to go make breakfast now because I can hear the children getting grumpy, which means my precious little bit of early morning quiet thinking time as a working-parent-of-small-children-with-no-childcare-or-grandparent-support is now over. If Biden gets this stuff through our dysfunctional Congress, it will be mostly too late to help my family but I hope it helps others. Thanks Obama…Bush, Clinton, other Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford, and Nixon at least. Especially Nixon, fuck you – a quick skim of the article reminded me of the bipartisan childcare program of the 1970s that you vetoed. Oh and also, fuck you Ralph Nader because maybe Al Gore would have gotten some of this stuff back on track 20 years ago. And last but not least, thank you once again Bernie Sanders for not pulling a Nader.