Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

the 2023 financial crisis?

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As I write on Sunday, March 12, headlines are that there is a bank run in the U.S. and we will find out on Monday morning if it is going to spread. What I don’t quite understand from the coverage I have read and listened to so far, is what exactly is causing this. Is it that start-up companies the bank has lended to are failing because of higher interest rates, and depositors are therefore worried that if the bank fails, they may not be able to get their deposits back? That is my working theory. My other question is why, if the economy as a whole is so strong as measured by low unemployment, there seems to be a mini-recession confined so far to the tech industry. I hope this is not the beginning of a so-called hard landing for the U.S. economy.

Knightscope – for criminals who operate above the law

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That is a dated Knight Rider reference, for those who didn’t watch trashy but awesome TV in the 1980s. These things are operating in some parking lots in Philadelphia. Some people predict Philadelphians will destroy them in short order. But they thing is, they are basically just a camera on wheels. So if you destroy it, you are creating evidence of yourself destroying, which the owner of this thing will be motivated to use against you in court. Some people say this is dystopian, but I don’t see a huge difference between this and a plain old security camera.

I wouldn’t mind getting one to collect video evidence of whoever it is leaving dog poop on my block. And no, whoever you are, bagging it before you drop it on the ground doesn’t really excuse you. Somebody still has to pick up your feces, and if that plastic bag gets washed into a storm drain and eventually out to the ocean, the crap will biodegrade in a few hours (possibly suffocating a few nearby fish in the process) but the plastic bag will be there in 1,000 years.

The lab leak hypothesis is dead. Long live the lab leak hypothesis!

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The lab leak hypothesis is back baby! Well, there is no new scientific evidence. But the U.S. “intelligence community” has now reported that it is officially split on the issue, with some agencies favoring the hypothesis. Snopes has a good explainer. The intelligence agencies’ main argument seems to be that…there is no new scientific evidence. So do the scientists and intelligence community even disagree? Or is there a science communication problem here? The scientists may be saying a natural origin is more likely than not, but the evidence is not so strong that they are willing to completely reject other hypotheses. The intelligence agencies meanwhile may have a much lower bar in terms of uncertainty, and they have an axe to grind with China. I haven’t forgotten their “intelligence assessment” of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, on which there was unanimous agreement.

It seems to me there are some different flavors of the lab leak hypothesis though. We know the Wuhan lab was working with bat viruses. We know they at least applied for funding at some point for genetic engineering experiments on bat viruses, because a U.S. organization was a party to that and it has been made public. We know their safety standards have been criticized. So…a lab researcher or employee could have been exposed and infected by a naturally occurring virus that was being studied there. Or they could have been exposed and infected by a genetically engineered virus that was being studied there. If the latter happened, that genetically engineered virus could have been under study for legitimate medical and public health reasons, even safety standards were inadequate. Or, maybe this is a biowarfare laboratory run by Dr. Evil. Nobody does bioweapons research by international treaty, and I just assume everybody including the United States does it.

If the problem is not the existence of adequate safety standards, but their implementation and enforcement, there are fairly obvious things that could be done to minimize the risk of a future lab leak. Training, inspections, accountability. Something akin to the IAEA’s nuclear weapons inspection regime could work. It would be in everyone’s best interests to agree and follow this course of action, right?

February 2023 in Review

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Sorry to all my faithful readers worldwide (who I could undoubtedly count with the fingers of one hand with some left over) for my lengthy posting gap. Anyway, let’s have a look at what I was thinking about in February.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Pfizer says they are not doing gain of function research on potential extinction viruses. But they totally could if they wanted to. And this at a time when the “lab leak hypothesis” is peeking out from the headlines again. I also became concerned about bird flu, then managed to convince myself that maybe it is not a huge risk at the moment, but definitely a significant risk over time.

Most hopeful story: Jimmy Carter is still alive as I write this. The vision for peace he laid out in his 2002 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech is well worth a read today. “To suggest that war can prevent war is a base play on words and a despicable form of warmongering. The objective of any who sincerely believe in peace clearly must be to exhaust every honorable recourse in the effort to save the peace. The world has had ample evidence that war begets only conditions that beget further war.”

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: It was slim pickings this month, but Jupiter affects the Sun’s orbit, just a little bit.

fair start

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I’m not sure, I agree on everything in this opinion piece, but it does help make a connection between childcare and family policy and the rest of society.

These family policies (which might be called constitutive or de-constitutive) do nothing to ensure that all children are born into conditions that comply with the United Nations Children’s Rights Convention—the minimum children need to comprise democracies—but instead push children into horrible conditions with no minimum levels of welfare, something done to ensure economic growth and to avoid “baby busts” or declining fertility rates. This puts wealth in the hands of a few, argues Nobel Laureate Steven Chu…

These policies, designed around a system premised on unsustainable growth, aim to prepare children, already suffering from vast inequality, to become consumers and workers for shopping malls rather than preparing them equitably to grow up to become effective citizens in democratic town halls. These inequitable policies have created a fantasy world of self-determination—freedom to take part in markets—while stealing the power each voice should have in true democracies.

Alternet

Logically, if you wanted to create a truly equal opportunity society and level playing field for all people at the moment they are born, you would start with a 100% inheritance tax. Then you would provide some combination of excellent parental leave and childcare benefits and services, so parents have the choice to either take time out from a career to focus on young children, or else have excellent childcare options available to them. You would need excellent health care for all children. Then you would move on to excellent public education, probably extending all the way through four-year college. This would obviously be “expensive”, but the benefits to society would almost certainly outweigh the costs to society. The way to pay for it would be for everybody participating in the economy to pay a little bit for it all the time, rather than the cost falling just on parents just for a few years while their children are young. Society as a whole, and the vast majority of parents, would be best off under this system. A tiny fraction of wealthy individuals and organizations would be worse off, and as long as our system gives these people the vast majority of political power, they will fight like hell against this system and they will prevail.

Inheritance taxes are fair and logical, but I admit they seem distasteful because it seems like you have worked hard your whole life to set your children up for success, and then the government is taking that away and giving it to other children whose parents were not as responsible or hard working. Under this system though, you would know your children are going to be fine, and logically you should be fine with it. I am not claiming logic, human emotions and politics are closely correlated! A value added tax might approximate the same benefit and be more politically palatable. Serious campaign finance reform has to come first before we can even begin to consider this.

Jimmy Carter’s Nobel Prize Lecture

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Here are a few words from Jimmy Carter’s 2002 Nobel Peace Prize lecture:

It is clear that global challenges must be met with an emphasis on peace, in harmony with others, with strong alliances and international consensus. Imperfect as it may be, there is no doubt that this can best be done through the United Nations, which Ralph Bunche described here in this same forum as exhibiting a “fortunate flexibility” – not merely to preserve peace but also to make change, even radical change, without violence.

He went on to say: “To suggest that war can prevent war is a base play on words and a despicable form of warmongering. The objective of any who sincerely believe in peace clearly must be to exhaust every honorable recourse in the effort to save the peace. The world has had ample evidence that war begets only conditions that beget further war.”

We must remember that today there are at least eight nuclear powers on earth, and three of them are threatening to their neighbors in areas of great international tension. For powerful countries to adopt a principle of preventive war may well set an example that can have catastrophic consequences.

If we accept the premise that the United Nations is the best avenue for the maintenance of peace, then the carefully considered decisions of the United Nations Security Council must be enforced. All too often, the alternative has proven to be uncontrollable violence and expanding spheres of hostility.

For more than half a century, following the founding of the State of Israel in 1948, the Middle East conflict has been a source of worldwide tension. At Camp David in 1978 and in Oslo in 1993, Israelis, Egyptians, and Palestinians have endorsed the only reasonable prescription for peace: United Nations Resolution 242. It condemns the acquisition of territory by force, calls for withdrawal of Israel from the occupied territories, and provides for Israelis to live securely and in harmony with their neighbors. There is no other mandate whose implementation could more profoundly improve international relationships.

Perhaps of more immediate concern is the necessity for Iraq to comply fully with the unanimous decision of the Security Council that it eliminate all weapons of mass destruction and permit unimpeded access by inspectors to confirm that this commitment has been honored. The world insists that this be done.

Jimmy Carter

You could argue the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 is the moment that broke the Security Council. The United States did that. Would the world be in a perfect place today if that had not happened. Of course not. Would it be in a better place? I think so. But we are where we are. A question now is whether there is a path back to a functioning Security Council. The UN has other functions, but without this its security function is mostly dead.

What if the Security Council members were nominated and elected by the General Assembly. They would need to not have any violations of the UN’s charter within the past decade, and they would need to make up a majority of the world’s military power, measured by military spending I guess. How else would you measure this? What if the Security Council members submitted military forces to be under the council’s direct control. These could then engage in peace keeping and humanitarian missions. Perhaps they would have the power to arrest convicted criminals and uphold UN resolutions by force if necessary. The existing Security Council members wouldn’t want to give up their power, of course. This might just have to a be a new body created with no input from the existing members. Just thinking out loud here, this may not be the best proposal but with the existing council completely useless somebody needs to think of something new to try.

more on bird flu

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A particularly concerning form of bird flu has now decimated poultry and spread to wild birds in many different parts of the world.

The current clade of H5N1 virus, called clade 2.3.4.4b, appears well-adapted to spread efficiently among wild birds and poultry in many regions of the world and was first identified in wild birds in the United States in January 2022. Since then, this current clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI A(H5N1) virus has been detected in wild birds in all 50 states and has caused bird outbreaks in 47 states affecting more than 58 million commercial poultry and backyard flocks.

CDC

The current strain is contagious to humans only when they have very close contact with live birds, according to CDC. However, there is concern now that it may have mutated and developed an ability to spread in mammals, including farmed mink in Spain and possibly wild sea otters in Peru.

The CDC says the mink are particularly susceptible and the spread of the virus in mink does not indicate an increased likelihood of spread among humans. They say a candidate vaccine has already been developed and could be produced quickly if needed.

I don’t trust the CDC as much as I did before Covid-19. However, this flu virus seems to be exactly what they were preparing for when they got blind-sided by Covid, so hopefully they would be better prepared for this.

This editorial in Science also takes aim at USDA and the Fish and Wildlife Service.

More zoonotic diseases originated in the United States than in any other country during the second half of the 20th century… The ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak has left 58 million animals dead in backyard chicken coops and industrial farms. It has infected animals in one of the dozens of live poultry markets in New York City (elsewhere called “wet markets”)…

Since 2011, the US has recorded more swine-origin influenza infections than any other country. Most occurred at state and county fairs, where an estimated 18% of swine have tested positive. These fairs attract 150 million visitors each year. In 2012, H3N2v influenza jumped from pigs to humans at livestock exhibitions and infected 306 people across 10 states, with suspected human-to-human transmission…

Each year, the US consumes an estimated 1 billion pounds of “game” (elsewhere called “bushmeat”). Yet, most hunter-harvested meat is not inspected, and no sanitary measures are required. Avian influenza has spread from wild birds to hunters and also appeared in captive game farms, where 40 million birds are raised annually. Three million mink live on US fur farms in long rows of wire cages where their waste falls onto the floor or onto other animals below…

The US is the largest importer of wildlife in the world. More than 200 million live wild animals enter the US each year, most undergoing no health and safety checks when they arrive.

Science

These facts and figures surprised me. Routine contact between people and domestic and wild animals is not just something that happens outside the U.S., it is happening here every day.

shoddy Chicago bike lanes

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I have gone through a number of emotional stages with Philadelphia’s bike lanes, from denial to anger to apathy. They are poorly designed, maintained, and almost completely unenforced. This article talks about the state of Chicago’s bike lanes, which sound and look about the same. No, this doesn’t make me feel better about Philadelphia. Two times as much poor design and children dying is twice as bad. But this article at least does have some ideas, some of which Chicago is at least trying on a limited time frame and in a limited area.

  • “install cameras on city vehicles and street poles in two pilot areas Downtown to identify parking violators and mail them a ticket” [If people knew there were cameras on every police car, bus, and other fleet vehicle, they would clean up their act in a hurry. You could forgive a first ticket for people who agree to put a camera on their cars. Citizens should be able to snap a picture and upload it too. And this seems like a great use of AI. Computers could process all the imagery, flag ones that look like likely violations, and then a police officer could review and issue the tickets.]
  • do something about “dangerous construction zones and poor maintenance of city streets” [Amen. These are not just bike issues, they are driver and pedestrian and human issues absolutely everybody should be able to get behind.]
  • Communication. [Yes, signage can be poor and sometimes drivers and delivery people legitimately do not understand they are doing something wrong.]
  • “Improve shoddy bike lanes.” [um, yes, it shouldn’t need to be said but this is the #1 thing. Just adopt the Dutch Street Design Manual now and be done with it. U.S. cities really need some kind of loading zone, delivery, and contractor parking solution though. The way streets are designed now, these 100% necessary activities are illegal and that doesn’t make any sense. My brightest idea is to have a 15-minute parking space (or whatever time frame makes sense) at the four corners of each intersection, have these be reservable through an app, consider charging for them, and strictly and/or automatically enforce time violations.]
  • “first-time violators and anyone ticketed within 30 days of a camera being installed will be given a 30-day warning”
  • Fines that scale with income. [I’m not sure about this, but charging commercial vehicles more could definitely make sense. Charging less for a first offense, or forgiving a first offense if someone takes a refresher course or agrees to become a snitch (i.e. install a camera on their car or house) could all make sense. Community service as an alternative to paying fines could make sense. Fines shouldn’t add up to the point where anybody goes to jail unless they have hurt someone. Penalties for drivers who hurt someone should be severe in my view though, and this should apply regardless of what the pedestrian or cyclist was doing. The moral weight has to fall on the operator of the larger, heavier vehicle.]

Adding an anecdote about a crushed toddler is a nice touch in this article. We are all against that right? Or do some of us only care about babies before they are born?

Go Birds!

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It’s the morning of Super Bowl Sunday as I write this, and I don’t know if the Philadelphia Eagles will win tonight. If you are reading this, you will probably know or you can look it up. In the meantime, if you want to watch eagles on TV there are at least two live streams of bald eagle nests in Pennsylvania. When I checked just now, one had an eagle in it and one was empty. Even an empty bald eagle nest is an impressive structure worth a look.

bird flu

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A strain of bird flu has spread from “intensive poultry farms in Asia” to wild birds in Britain. This is unquestionably bad for birds, and…

At present, it is thought H5N1 only rarely infects people and few cases have been recorded of it being passed from one human to another. However, scientists warn there is a possibility that bird flu viruses could change and gain the ability to spread easily between people. Monitoring for human infection is extremely important, they warn.

Guardian

Was Covid-19 a dress rehearsal for the day a really dangerous flu gets out of hand? I think we learned some things, but did we learn enough?