Tile maps, which visually show areas with unequal areas as having equal area, are, somewhat obviously, appropriate when you don’t want the unequal geographic area to distort the message you are trying to communicate. An example might be if you want to show a variable by congressional districts, which have (roughly) equal populations but variable (spatial) areas.
A couple other ideas with tile maps are (1) to use rectangles of equal shape but different length/width ratios, and (2) to use words spatially arranged and with a variety of properties (font, size, color) to denote a variety of variables.
I haven’t talked much about AI. Generally, I don’t feel like I have a lot to add on topics that literally everybody else is talking about (even Al Gore), and at least some people have a lot more specialized knowledge than I do. But here goes:
In the near- to medium-term, it seems to me the most typical use will be to streamline our interaction with computers. Writing computer code might be the most talked about application. AI can pretty easily write the first draft of a computer program based on a verbal description of what the programmer wants. This might save time, as long as debugging the draft code and getting it to run and produce reasonable results doesn’t take longer than it would have taken the programmer to draft, debug, and check the code. Automated debugging almost seems like an oxymoron to me, but maybe it will get better over time.
The other way we interact with computers, though, is all those endless drop-down menus and pop-up windows and settings of settings of settings, not to mention infuriating “customer service” computers. Surely AI can help to untangle some of this and just make it easier for a normal person to communicate to a computer what they are looking for.
So some streamlining and efficiency gains seem like a possibility. Like pretty much any technological process, these will cause some short-term employment loss and longer-term productivity gains. At least a portion of productivity gains do seem to trickle down to greater value (lower prices for what we get in return) for consumers and the middle class. How much trickles down depends on how seriously the society works on problems like market failure, regulatory capture, benefits, childcare, health care, education, training, research and development, etc.
Increasingly personalized medicine seems like a medium- to longer-term possibility. We have heard a lot about evidence based medicine, and there is not a lot of evidence it has delivered on the promises so far. Maybe it eventually will, and maybe AI making sense of relatively unstructured health information and medical records will eventually be part of the solution.
Longer term, AI might be able synthesize existing information and research across fields and enable better problem solving and decisions. The thing is, computer-aided decision making for policy makers and other leaders is not a new idea. It’s been around for a long time and has not necessarily improved decision making. It’s not that objective information always makes the best decision obvious or that there is always a single best decision. Decisions should be informed by a combination of objective information and values in most cases. But human beings rarely make use of even the objective information readily available to them, and often make decisions based on opinions and hunches.
Overcoming this decision problem will be more of a social science problem than a technology problem – and social science has lagged behind the hard sciences and even (god-forbid) the semi-flaccid science of economics. Maybe AI can help these sciences catch up. Where is that psycho-history we were promised so long ago?
Construction and urban planning are some more challenging areas that never seem to get anywhere, but maybe that is a just a cynical middle-aged veteran of the urban planning and sustainable development wars talking. I tried to help bring a system theory- and decision science-based approach to the engineering and planning sector earlier in my career, and that attempt foundered badly on the rocks of human indifference at best and ill intention at worst. Maybe that was an idea before its time and this time will be different, but I am not sure the state of information technology was the limiting factor at the time.
Education is a tough sector. We all want to make it easier. But I have recently returned to a classroom setting after decades of virtual “training” and “industry” conferences, and the difference in what I am learning for a given investment of effort is night and day. Maybe AI could help human teachers identify the right level of content and the right format that will benefit a given student most, and then deliver it.
And those are the ignorant but well-intentioned humans. There are many ill-intentioned humans out there. Speaking of ill-intentioned humans, if AI can be used to accelerate technological progress, it will inevitably be used to accelerate progress on weapons, propaganda, authoritarian control of populations, and just generally to concentrate wealth and power in as few hands as possible.
Now for a fun and potentially lucrative idea: As Marc Andreessen puts it, “Don’t get me wrong, cults are fun to hear about, their written material is often creative and fascinating, and their members are engaging at dinner parties and on TV.” No longer do cults have to be built around pretend gods, we can create actual gods and then build cults around them!
A group of orcas is repeatedly and intentionally attacking small boats off the coast of Spain. It sounds terrifying, and I’m sure it is, if you are in one of the boats. But according to this article at least, no humans have been hurt in these incidents. One theory is that the orcas think this is fun, like toddlers playing with bath toys.
This app is supposed to measure cognitive impairment from alcohol, drugs, and fatigue.
Grounded in cognitive neuroscience, Druid is a breakthrough technology. It brings you a sophisticated tool that measures impairment from any cause, including cannabis and other drugs, alcohol, fatigue, illness, injury, chronic condition, or severe stress. Druid operates like a video game while it measures hundred of neurophysiological indicators.
Seems useful for a variety of purposes. And employers could use it for a variety of legitimate purposes, such as maybe testing pilots and surgeons? People who aren’t able to do their jobs safely because they are tired or stressed shouldn’t get fired obviously, they should get to rest. You can certainly imagine employers and law enforcement using this app abusively. As for driving safely, let’s just turn that over to the computers already.
Even if I were regular cannabis user (I am not, but have no moral issues with those who are unless they are driving a forklift or doing something else risky while impaired), I would not take it on a domestic flight knowing that it is still illegal under federal law. So it’s interesting that TSA has said publicly that they are not looking for it. If they happen to find it, say, because you packed it in the same bag as a weapon you were trying to smuggle on to a plane, they are just supposed to notify local police.
If the federal government really wants to, they can prosecute you as a drug trafficker even for transporting a tiny cannabis from one state where it is 100% legal to another state where it is 100% legal. The penalty for this as a first offense can be 5 years in jail and $250,000. It seems unlikely they would do this, but is a risk worth taking? If they are after you for some other reason and you happen to have committed this offense, it seems like they could use this charge as a major bargaining chip to secure your cooperation.
Now, on international flights, I really would not take it. For example, last time I went to Singapore (around a decade now) they still had that sign in baggage claim that says “death to drug dealers”. Let’s say I had a substance in my backpack in the past that was 100% legal in the time and place I purchased it, and let’s say a drug sniffing dog at a foreign airport can still detect that today. At a minimum this seems likely to increase your chances of getting searched, hassled, and having your time wasted when traveling.
What’s REALLY risky, of course, from a health perspective, is consuming a pill or other substance when you don’t know for sure exactly what it is, what the dose it, or where it came from. This alone is a reason to legalize almost everything, in my view. Then add to that all the violence that has occurred on U.S. streets and on both sides of the border to supply products that are obviously in high demand. Add in the racial biases that cause people to be treated differently. The war on drugs is just a dumb failure. Let’s end it. Legalize, tax, and make addiction and substance abuse a problem for the health care system (oh, the U.S. should really get itself one of these!)
This article is from ProPublica, so you can take this person’s opinion on root causes however you want. But numbers are numbers, and checkable. Here are some numbers:
“According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, guns became the leading killer of children in 2020, overtaking car crashes, drug overdoses and disease for the first time in the nation’s history.”
“And then Barack Obama won in 2008. So you have this sort of uncapping of hate and conspiracy, much of it racially driven, that the NRA was tapping into. Prior to 2007, people in the United States never purchased more than 7 million guns in a single year. By the time Barack Obama left office, the United States was purchasing almost 17 million guns a year. And so I think it’s impossible to discount the degree to which Obama’s presidency lit this whole thing on fire.”
“But with Trump, we experienced a whole new, never seen before level of fear, racism, hatred and conspiracy that culminated in 2020. In that year, you had George Floyd, COVID lockdowns, Black Lives Matter, Antifa protests and Kyle Rittenhouse. I mean, it’s the most tumultuous year any of us can remember with the most hatred and conspiracy and nastiness. None of us can remember a year like that. In that year, the United States consumers bought almost 23 million guns in a single year, more than three times as much as before Barack Obama took office.”
The proposal, dubbed the Land Value Tax Plan, would increase taxes on land while reducing taxes on homes and structures by an expected 30%, or roughly $38 million total. This would apply to every neighborhood in Michigan’s largest city, requires no application and never expires.
If approved by the Michigan Legislature, and later by Detroit voters, Duggan said, the plan would provide relief to homeowners who have been struggling under the burden of high taxes, encourage further neighborhood growth and hold land speculators accountable.
It makes a lot of sense to me. The cynic in me has to ask, how much are the politicians that would have to vote for this in on the land speculation game? Here in Philadelphia they certainly are. But I’m not one to name names…ah hell, COUNCILMAN KENYATTA JOHNSON I’M TALKING TO YOU.
Most frightening and/or depressing story: There are more “nuclear capable states” than I thought.
Most hopeful story: The U.S. Congress is ponying up $31 billion to give Houston a chance at a future. Many more coastal cities will need to be protected from sea level rise and intensifying storms. Now we will see if the U.S. can do coastal protection right (just ask the Dutch or Danish, no need to reinvent anything), and how many of the coastal cities it will get to before it is too late.
Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Peter Turchin’s new book proposes four indicators presaging political instability: “stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, declining public trust, and exploding public debt“. I found myself puzzled by the “overproduction of young graduates” part, and actually had a brief email exchange with Peter Turchin himself, which I very much appreciated! Anyway, he said the problem is not education per se but “credentialism”. I have to think some more about this, but I suppose the idea is that education, like health, wealth, and almost everything else, is not equally distributed but is being horded by a particular class which is not contributing its fair. These are my words, not Peters, and he might or might not agree with my characterization here.
I like this idea. It’s the kind of idea cowardly city councils across the USA can get behind because it costs them zero dollars. Just require employers providing “free” or discounted parking to their employees to let their employees opt out and receive the cash value instead. This makes more sense to me than free bus service, which is often not configured well for our urban areas (i.e., our urban areas are not configured right for transportation, but we don’t think of it this way, do we?).
“Conservatives” will support this because it is a free market solution, right? Don’t force people to pay extra taxes and fees to support other peoples’ subsidized parking. Let the market set the price of driving, parking, and all other modes of transportation. No, I’m not this naive. Conservatives generally support the status quo, even if it is demonstrably, logically and indisputably anti-free-market.
When I first heard ideas for year-round school, my thought was that it might be easier for working parents (the main pitch here in Philadelphia) but worse for student and teacher burnout. According to at least one advocacy organization though, the idea is to spread the year out by taking more short breaks rather than one long one. This kind of makes sense to me, but apparently a number of school districts have tried it and ended up scaling it back.
The National Association of Year Round Education advocates for districts to implement the “balanced calendar,” which shortens summer vacation and adds longer breaks called “intersessions” during the school year. The group’s suggested calendar uses a 30-day summer break and breaks for fall, winter, and spring of 15 days each, plus a three-day break for Thanksgiving…
After a long summer break, according to Hornak, teachers generally spend the first 20 to 40 days in school reteaching students to compensate for summer learning loss. With traditional school calendars, “schools are asked to remediate learning gaps that they are contributing to,” Hornak said.
For the affluent, and for the middle class willing to make some sacrifices, summer is a great time for enrichment for kids. Kids are susceptible to burnout like other human beings and deserve a break from the pressure of academics once in awhile. They can connect with nature, learn practical skills, or dive deeper into an interest like a sport or fine art, and meet like-minded kids that they might not meet other times. Work experiences and job training can be enriching if done right – but need to be careful with this one.
For working parents of limited means or just other priorities than spending all their money on private school and summer camp, school can be a godsend as a form of childcare, like it or not. School breaks can cause a lot of stress for parents who have to organize childcare and transportation to and from said childcare, without any corresponding change in their work schedules or responsibilities. Organizing childcare for a long summer break is stressful, but at least it can be done once and and then set for a few months, rather than having to do this for many short breaks during the course of the year.
For the most part, kids aren’t allowed to just run around in the woods or on city streets any more. This is probably good for their physical safety overall, and those days are not going to come back any time soon.
In an ideal world, all children would be able to have the types of enrichment experiences that affluent children have today. It could be done. It would take money and organization. Investing in children is the best investment our society can make, even from a purely hard-nosed economic perspective. It has to be the whole of society investing. It can’t be just parents of young children for a few years during what is supposed to also be their peak career years. That just doesn’t work for anyone from a financial or mental health perspective.
But affluent families vacationing in the Catskills, please just watch your teenage daughters around those “dirty dancing” instructors!