Waymo coming to Philadelphia

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Waymo test-cars are being spotted pretty frequently now in Philadelphia. I have been paying attention, and at first they had a human driver with hands on the wheel. Recently, they have had a human sitting in the passenger seat with no hands on the wheel. Recognizing that this technology has been out for awhile on the U.S. west coast and abroad, especially in China, the lag time and the public amazement here (expressed in positive and negative ways) is partly a metric of how far behind our city and state are.

Just the other day, I watched a Waymo pull over quickly and come to a complete stop as a fire truck overtook and passed it from the back. This is mostly great – you can imagine if all or even the majority of vehicles did this, fire trucks could get where they need to go a lot faster. This is NOT what human drivers do in Philadelphia currently – people either choose to ignore traffic laws or they may actually not be aware that there are traffic laws, and there are virtually no consequences. So I can imagine human drivers being startled and possibly causing a few crashes when a Waymo does the right thing, rationally and efficiently. And I see a metaphor here – automation/AI will overtake some industries quickly that are mostly unaffected by human institutions and quirky, irrational, inefficient, suboptimal human behavior. But it will have a harder time penetrating other industries and institutions, and this might be a good thing if the technology and institutions take some time to adapt to each other, at a speed that buffers some of the potential disruption. And then there is government, which might be like a brick wall. Just look at DOGE – I think a charitable interpretation of DOGE is that it was an attempt to automate and streamline the federal government using AI. AI probably identified a million ways the government is irrational and inefficient, and it was able to fix none of them in a short period of time, and in fact caused massive disruption and human suffering by trying to fix them, consequences we continue to live with.

The article had a couple interesting statistics:

  • ‘ Waymo recently published a journal article analyzing 127 million miles of trips taken by fully autonomous robotaxis, comparing those results to human benchmarks. “The Waymo Driver,” says Teicher, referring to the name of their driverless-car system, “achieved a tenfold reduction in serious injury or worse crashes, and a twelvefold reduction in injury crashes with pedestrians.” ‘
  • “Between 2014 and 2017, the value of a taxi medallion — the source of family-sustaining wealth for many taxi drivers — plummeted, from a high of more than $500,000 to $10,000. Uber and Lyft eventually grew the total amount of jobs for drivers, but shaped them in the mold of the gig economy.” [major pain for a small group of workers, eventual expansion of jobs but arguably lower quality]
  • In a city like San Francisco, where Waymo has eclipsed 10 percent of the ride-hailing market share, the average fare remains 12 percent higher than Uber and 17 percent higher than Lyft. [okay, so there will be competition between Waymo and ride sharing, and eventually Waymo and other robo-taxi companies.]

good bye ISS

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NASA plans to deorbit the International Space Station “around 2030” and crash it into the ocean. According to Longreads (linking to a Wired article):

The [Deorbit Vehicle] will then move the ISS into the lower atmosphere. Most of it will burn, but some of it will fall into the sea. 

It sounds somewhat spectacular, and possibly risky. I’ll give NASA the benefit of the doubt and assume they know what they’re doing until/unless they show us that they don’t (case studies: FEMA after Hurricane Katrina and CDC during Covid-19). There is no ISS2 in the works – instead, individual countries and private companies seem to be talking about their own space stations and moon bases. Maybe this is partly because technology has improved and costs have come down, so cooperation is no longer necessary just to share the cost. But to me, it is also sad because it represents the end of the post-Cold War era of relative optimism and international cooperation in space.

The AI-energy demand feedback loop

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I’ve been thinking about the idea that the massive data center expansion needed to drive the current AI boom is increasing energy demand, and in the near to medium term may be limited by energy supply. It is also apparently competing for the energy supply we have currently, driving up prices for consumers and businesses across the board, along with toxic air pollution and greenhouse gas pollution. The big technology companies are trying to tell a story that this short term pain will go away when AI “solves climate change” with its superior intelligence. That seems like a longer-term thing that will not solve our short term issues, although the tech-bro-cracy will tell us we are just not smart enough to think exponentially like them, and what we think is long term is in fact just around the corner.

I’ve been thinking about the Kardashev Scale. This is the idea that the level of sophistication of a civilization can be linked to the amount of energy it uses – just the energy striking the surface of the planet, all the energy of its star, all the energy of all the stars in its galaxy, etc. (we are just off the left end, trying to get onto this scale). This might seem not to square with the idea that more energy use means more pollution, negative health and environmental impacts for us at our current level of technology. The way you square that logically is to say that we have to get over the hump from dirty to clean energy technology before we can take the next step to a higher order of civilization. If AI can increase our rate of scientific and technology advancement, maybe it can help us get there sooner. Currently we are at the stage where we are turning decommissioned coal plants back on to fuel the AI, without seeing any measurable benefits so far. Realists/cynics (don’t cynics always consider themselves realists?) might also point out that there is a lot of friction built into human institutions and sociopolitical systems, and that this tends to set a speed limit on the rate we can progress, even if the state of science and technology could allow us to progress faster.

One thing I always wondered was what came first – the coal chicken or the steam engine egg? It turns out, this is a true chicken and egg story that went something like this (citation: Gemini for the background, not fact checked – the words are from my human brain):

  • The ancient Romans, Chinese, and other cultures were aware of coal and burned it to heat buildings. There isn’t really a record of when it was “discovered”, you can imagine deposits of it were first found just lying around on or very near the surface, and people found it burned hotter and longer than wood.
  • By the 1700-1800s, London grew to the point that England started to run out of accessible coal to heat all the buildings. They were digging deeper and deeper to get at the coal, and starting to hit the water table. So the first steam engine was invented in 1712 to power pumps to lower the groundwater table in coal mines. This was a dirty, inefficient machine but they didn’t care because it was literally at the mine.
  • From there, the steam engine technology was refined (famously by James Watt in the 1760s) and gave rise to railroads and steam ships (both of which could move coal), and coal-powered factories. From there, the feedback loop of economic growth and energy demand (and localized toxic air pollution and global greenhouse gas emissions, not to mention labor exploitation and industrial war) took off.

So an analogous process today, we might want to think, is that the sharp increase in energy demand for the data centers will incentivize innovation around clean energy, or at least cheaper energy than what fossil fuels are currently providing. Fossil fuels seem to be pretty close to the limit of how much power they can reasonably supply our civilization, both economically and in terms of pollution we are willing to tolerate. It is almost an iron law of economics that this will fuel innovation. So AI is on the energy demand side of the equation – there is no requirement that it also has to be on the innovation side of the equation because humans are doing pretty well advancing clean energy technology (contrary to the fossil fuel industry-funded propaganda we are being force-fed in the U.S.). But humans will figure out ways to use the AI technology to innovate, and at some point maybe AI will be able to do some innovation on its own with high-level human oversight. It will make a big difference whether this process takes years or decades to unfold (I am not buying the “months” time frame being pushed by the tech-bro-cracy). If it’s decades, the ecological impacts and human suffering are going to be enormous.

What kinds of technologies could possibly be boosted by AI? This is just me brain storming:

  • Somewhat obviously, we can continue refining/scaling up the solar, wind, and battery technology we have today. Electrification of buildings, industry, and transportation are important here too, and a smarter/more resilient electric grid is also a big part of this equation. Scaling these involves the high-friction human institution-mediated processes where AI can probably point out how we can do things more rationally and efficiently, but our human inefficiency and irrationality are going to limit the pace for the foreseeable future. AI can probably design much better institutions for us, but we would have to come to some consensus and then successfully implement them. This may happen very slowly – but I see this taking decades for sure, and not much AI will be able to do about it.
  • Fusion – Let’s try to pick up the pace of basic research leading to safe commercialization.
  • Fission – I don’t think we should give up on it. The small modular reactors seem to hold out some promise even if there is also a certain amount of industry exaggeration. There is also a big push-pull between industry, government regulation, and public acceptance, and I am not sure this is something we want to speed up. It may need to just take its course to find solutions we agree are both effective and safe enough – again, decades. If we actually get fusion figured out, maybe this technology will be obsolete before it can be scaled.
  • Space-based solar technology – The energy from just our one Sun is unlimited in any practical near-term sense. There must be lots of technical problems to be worked out here – straightforward mechanical/electrical/chemical engineering stuff. Let’s get to it! The private sector may actually take care of this one without much prompting. No, I don’t want to make Elon Musk even richer, but he is a leader on this so how about some real competition. Even if a few people get unreasonably rich, there are plenty of policy options to share the wealth. AI can easily point these out for us, but again this is one of those human socio-political institutional friction areas where any progress at all is going to be painfully slow, even if we can reverse current trends and get it moving back in the right direction.
  • Applied research on energy storage, materials science, etc – there are plenty of ideas for storing energy beyond our current battery technologies. You can simply pump water up a hill while the sun is out and let it flow back down, turning a turbine when the sun goes in. You can take advantage of pressure/temperature/salinity gradients in the ocean, or electrolyze water to charge hydrogen fuel cells, just to name a few. Intelligent AIs should be able to work on problems involving materials and chemicals, first using numerical (differential equation based) simulations, and later bringing robots in real laboratories into the mix to test out the most promising ideas.
  • Fundamental research to unlock the things we can’t even think of yet – Physicists are forever searching for the holy grail of understanding gravity, relativity, quantum physics, dark matter, and probably other things I have not heard of. I have heard some of them say that new branches of mathematics may need to be invented (discovered? a philosophical question) before the right questions can even be asked. Then new instruments to collect new forms of data may need to be invented before experiments can even be designed to begin answering the new questions. This seems like an area where if AIs are eventually as capable as a leading human physicist, you can have a team of a million or billion or trillion leading physicists working on a problem 24 hours a day, without ever getting tired. One tiny little detail – we need ethical frameworks and nation-state regulations and enforceable international agreements to control the dangerous stuff that could result.

February 2026 in Review

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In fast-moving current events as I write on March 1, 2026, the United States (executive branch, which is unconstrained in this moment by the other supposedly co-equal branches or public opinion) has launched an unprovoked military attack on Iran, in crystal clear violation of the UN Charter and domestic law. Theoretically, there are mechanisms both international (International Criminal Court) and domestic (impeachment – which can apply to cabinet members, agency heads, and federal judges in addition to the President and Vice President; and court martial which applies to military officers who follow illegal orders) that could eventually hold the criminals involved accountable for their crimes. Lots of people have lots to say and we will see how this unfolds. I am just documenting that I am present at this particularly sad moment in history.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: I hadn’t heard of mirror life, technology we apparently have right now which can destroy all life on Earth. This new, shocking, theoretically existential threat narrowly edged out the usual stream of depressing climate disaster news, the existential threat known to be currently unfolding, but which I suppose I am somewhat desensitized to.

Most hopeful story: Falling consumer prices in China might represent a new industrial revolution analogous to the age of railroads and electricity in the west in the late 1800s, rather than a textbook financial recession which seems to be the (propaganda-tainted?) conventional wisdom. I put this in the win column because if it is true, I am hopeful we will see it spread peacefully to the rest of the world rather than representing a threat.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Ray Kurzweil predicts broad consensus that Artificial General Intelligence has arrived by 2029 (defined as AI equal to the leading experts in all fields), “longevity escape velocity” in 2032 (which would reverse the US slipping in recent decades), universal basic income in the U.S. sometime in the 2030s, and the Singularity in 2045 (defined as 1000X human intelligence – always pronounced TIMES according to me), but most importantly and the only thing that truly matters, robots doing my dishes in a couple years.

what’s going on with smart glasses?

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Real augmented reality is one of those technologies that always seems around the corner but never seems to quite arrive, at least in a widespread commercial way. It just seems silly that we are still walking around looking at these tiny screens as they give us data about our surrounding environment. I thought this would be built into car windshields by now, and at some point glasses/goggles/visors of some sort.

This article in futurism.com about Meta’s entry is negative, focusing on potential privacy risks. And of course those do exist. But the technology itself is neutral in my view. Sure, ICE can use it to track me down and beat me if they want to. I can also use it to follow directions without tripping and falling in a hole or wandering in front of a bus. It could be really useful for tourism, understanding the past history or possible future of whatever place you happen to be at this point in time. If it is eventually deployed on all or most human-operated vehicles, I really think it could control intersections much better than the antiquated stoplights and pedestrian signals that haven’t improved much over the last century.

The article suggests that Meta’s smart glasses are widely commercially deployed and that people like them. If this is the case, I simply hadn’t noticed. If it is being marketed to me at all, I hadn’t noticed. Maybe it is just deployed in California or geographic pockets other than where I am.

lies, lies, and more lies to the U.S. public about greenhouse gas emissions

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The “endangerment finding” through the Clean Air Act may not have been the ideal way to incentivize clean energy technology in our country. But it was one dial we had to turn, and now it has been turned back. This is just a temporary giveaway to the short-term interests of corporate donors in the automobile and fossil fuel industries. In the case of the auto industry, it is not in their long term interests to subsidize inefficient outdated technology, then use propaganda to swindle the public. The lie about “affordability” is particularly egregious.

Affordable vehicle ownership is essential to the American Dream and a primary driver of economic mobility out of poverty in the United States. The Endangerment Finding led to vehicle and engine regulations with an aggregate cost of more than $1 trillion and played a significant role in EPA’s justification of regulations of other sources beyond cars and trucks, resulting in additional costly burdens on American families and businesses. Americans rely on vehicles to reach jobs, education, health care, and essential services. This is especially true in rural areas and regions without robust public transit. The costs imposed by these climate policies have placed new cars out of reach for many American families and harmed Americans’ ability to climb out of poverty or reach essential services. The Trump EPA is expected to deliver Americans over $1.3 trillion in cost savings, which includes reduced costs for new vehicles and avoided costs of purchasing equipment related to EVs. This action will result in an average cost savings of over $2,400 per vehicle. By lowering vehicle and regulatory compliance costs, EPA is improving affordability and expanding consumer choice and ultimately advancing the American Dream by making it easier to reach jobs, grow small businesses, and participate fully in the transportation and logistics systems that power the U.S. economy.

Here is what Gemini has to say about this. And the analysis below is true in the United States. In China, most new vehicles being sold are electric and you can buy one for $10,000. We are being lied to, and as we have withdrawn even more from the world, we are even less aware what is going on elsewhere, but still U.S. consumers are intelligent enough that we will catch on even if there is some delay. Our legacy auto companies will fail again and again, and eventually need to be bailed out again and again, until eventually the economics of electrification is just too obvious to lie about and get away with it.

While the sticker price of an EV is typically higher, the savings in fuel and maintenance usually “pay back” that difference within 3 to 7 years. By the time a car reaches the end of its life, an EV owner in the U.S. has typically saved between $6,000 and $11,000 compared to a gas-car owner. [generated by Gemini]

There’s another sleight of hand. There is rock solid scientific and economic work showing the costs of air pollution, and here I am talking about good old fashioned toxic smoke from factories and tail pipes. There is also solid (but controversial) economic work over decades quantifying the economic value that people place on a year of worker life. For example, a construction worker on a roof might get paid more than one doing the same job on the ground, because there is a greater statistical risk of death on the roof. Aggregate these numbers over many workers, jobs, and time, and you can say the “value of a statistical life” is a certain number of dollars. It seems cold, but it provides a sound data point when a new regulation with some cost is being considered. Put these two things together and you have the scientific and economic basis to compare the costs and benefits of a policy decision. This is old school environmental economics and really a basis for some pretty conservative policy because you are acknowledging it may be rational to sacrifice some human health and life for economic production. And we are not really assigning the environment any intrinsic value in this equation, unless knowing the environment is a little better brings people some pleasure which some value can be placed on, which economists sometimes try. Of course, real world policy decisions are some combination of science, economics, and politics, as they probably should be in a democracy. But what the EPA has recently suggested it is prepared to do is set the value of a statistical life to zero when analyzing costs and benefits of air pollution. [See pp. 214-217 of the document I link to above. I acknowledge this not a crystal clear policy directive, then again, it may be intentionally buried to try to avoid scrutiny, when in fact if you dig deeper EPA is departing from official directives of the federal government, including the President’s own Office of Management and Budget.] In other words, they propose to assume the cost of pollution is zero. This is wrong, fake, naked propaganda! Their policies are killing us AND stealing our money. It is time to get rid of these immoral people claiming to lead us.

more on how tipping points could unfold

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I’ve suggested that the climate tipping point might only be called in retrospect, and that the year we pick might be 2025. Not because it can be pin-pointed that precisely, but because if we decide in retrospect that the 2020s were about when it happened, that will be a nice round number to pick.

Here is one scenario from OneEarth journal on what a cascade of tipping points could look like.

The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory

Warming from greenhouse gas emissions accelerates Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet loss, reducing albedo and adding meltwater that weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). A weakened AMOC shifts tropical rainfall patterns, increasing drought risk and potential dieback in the northern Amazon forest, further amplifying global warming through the feedback involving carbon loss. Note that once one tipping point is crossed, it will likely impact the timing and temperature thresholds for other tipping points.

habitat area and fragmentation

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I gave a talk this week on a niche topic involving plant selection for stormwater management features like rain gardens in cities. I had just one slide on habitat connectivity and fragmentation as an interesting area for further research. That one slide generated a lot of interest. And it is an interesting topic. First of all, it has been looked at quite a bit in the design of nature reserves, but not so much in urban areas or areas with a mix of wild, agricultural, and urban land uses. And second, there is always the debate about whether focusing too much on connectivity metrics can detract from just preserving enough total habitat. The article below is an entry relevant to this question, relevant in the context of forests. In urban areas, in my view, this question gets flipped on its head. Fragmentation and disconnection is the de facto state, and can only be reversed on the margins. So the interesting question to me is what policy choices can make it the least bad. There is also the possibility that better policy choices in urban areas can reduce friction of (animal and plant) movement between wild landscapes, and even whether they can serve as relatively biologically functional islands in depleted agricultural landscapes.

Why controlling for habitat amount is critical for resolving the fragmentation debate

The need for a consensus on the effects of fragmentation per se is increasingly recognized (Miller-Rushing et al., 2019; Riva, Koper, et al., 2024; Valente et al., 2023) because deforestation continues and small forest patches are particularly vulnerable to destruction (Riva et al., 2022). If fragmentation per se reduces biodiversity, then policies should prioritize protection and restoration of large patches. If not, then policies should include all forest, irrespective of patch sizes (Riva & Fahrig, 2023). This would allow effective biodiversity conservation, even in human-dominated regions where no large patches remain, by protecting and restoring sufficient forest over a network of many small patches (Arroyo-Rodríguez et al., 2020).

Woody Guthrie vs. Old Man Trump

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Donald Trump’s father was Woodie Guthrie’s landlord at one point. Woodie Guthrie had things to say about that, which he wrote down, such as

Beach Haven ain’t my home!
I just cain’t pay this rent!
My money’s down the drain!
And my soul is badly bent!
Beach Haven looks like heaven
Where no black ones come to roam!
No, no, no! Old Man Trump!
Old Beach Haven ain’t my home!

The U.S. government rewarded landlords for being racist at the time, but even considering that, Trump just sounds particularly vicious and racist. It’s also a data point showing that Donald J. Trump grew up in a family where openly racist views would have been expressed frequently and without remorse.

American Life Expectancy

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This article from something called the Institute for New Economic Thinking has some depressing info (not many stats though) on U.S. life expectancy. I’ve had this feeling for a few years now, that the U.S. is not only not the leader of the pack when it comes to developed nations, we are not even solidly in the middle of the pack, and we are slipping to developing country status on many indicators. But even saying that is not entirely fair to developing countries, because they are making gains on many quality of life measures out of proportion to their income levels, while we are losing quality of life in spite of our nominally growing economy.

That’s what public health researcher Steven H. Woolf, professor of family medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, has documented. By 2019, just before COVID‑19 hit, U.S. life expectancy ranked 40th among the world’s most populous countries, trailing places like Albania and Lebanon. The pandemic only made things worse: by 2020, the U.S. had fallen to 46th, as six more nations overtook it.

Woolf hasn’t just compared the U.S. to wealthy countries like Canada, Germany, or the U.K. He looked at life expectancy across dozens of nations with very different histories and economies, and the results are startling. The U.S. began falling behind as early as the 1950s, with countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East steadily overtaking it.

The reasons are not really secret: our lack of a universal health care system, our food system and lack of physical activity, our motor vehicle dominated lives, and our unusual level of deadly violence. There are many examples of effective policies to address these issues if our leaders choose to look to other developed and middle income countries, and even to pockets of sanity in some U.S. states and cities.