2026 flu and Covid vaccine recommendations

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The (U.S.) Centers for Disease Control has not gotten around to issuing vaccine recommendations this fall, and if they do their credibility has been severely, possibly terminally damaged. The better source seems to be the American Medical Association, which doesn’t actually create recommendations itself but aggegrates the recommendations of four professional societies considered authoritative.

I’ll summarize below, but obviously I am not qualified to give medical advice (my credentials: I have an environmental engineering degree and took precisely one micro-biology course). The standard advice is always “talk to your doctor”. But in our broken health care system (although “broken” would seem to imply that it worked at some point in the past), many people do not have “a doctor” that they have consistent access to, and even if they do it is often impossible to communicate with this person informally. If you have to make an appointment sometimes far in the future, waste half a day, and spend a crazy amount of money to ask a one minute question, most people are just not going to do that. Tele-medicine helps slightly with the appointment and time wasting part, I guess. And insurance companies sometimes have a free nurse hotline who might be allowed to give this type of advice.

Theoretically, you could ask a pharmacist for advice, but the only people I know who do this are ones that happen to be married to a pharmacist. Marrying a pharmacist is not a terrible idea because they are one of the highest-paid occupations. And although they probably know a lot about untraceable poisons, they do not have a strong incentive to murder you for your money because they most likely have a lot more money than you.

Many people I know also aren’t going to consult or heed the official recommendations, relying instead on “trusted messengers” such as acquaintances, ethno-nationalist politicians, internet randos, or just hunches of unclear origin. So without further ado, here is my summary of the recommendations, which you should verify for yourself. I’ve thrown in RSV for good measure. My daughter had a nasty run-in with RSV as a baby so I can personally attest to this one.

  • Babies under 6 months – flu and Covid no, RSV (under 8 months) yes
  • Children 6 months to 2 years – flu yes, Covid yes, RSV maybe (they should have already had RSV at this point, but if not the answer is a strong yes before 8 months and “talk to your doctor” after that)
  • Children 2 to 18 years – flu yes, Covid only if there is some risk factor, RSV no
  • Adults 19-49 – flu yes, Covid yes, RSV no
  • Adults 50+ – flu yes, Covid yes (specific formulations for 65+), RSV at 75+, 50-74 only if there is some risk factor
  • There are some nuances for pregnant women, immunocompromised people, and health care workers. At least, these people might have consistent access to a doctor they can ask for advice.

The 2026 Planetary Health Check

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The 2026 Planetary Health Check is out. This is Johan Rockstrom’s “Planetary Boundaries” framework. 7 of 9 indicators have moved beyond the “safe operating space”, and most or all are continuing to move in the wrong direction, often in an accelerating fashion. This is scientists trying to be very empirical and focus on indicators that are measurable. It leaves me hungry for a model that uses these variables to explain how the system as a whole is functioning. And they do give a qualitative nod to interconnections and system understanding. But overall, it is a nice compilation of recent scientific evidence in one place, combining the familiar (more or less) evidence on carbon concentrations and emissions with less familiar evidence on biodiversity and habitat destruction, the pipeline from nitrogen and phosphorus extraction to water pollution, and land use.

I could spend weeks or months drilling in to the references, but I have children who apparently think I am running a bed and breakfast (i.e., they are out of bed and asking for breakfast), so the part of the day where I have some control over how I spend my time is now over, and if you want to extract some interesting points from this report you will have to do it yourself.

Chinese cars would take only 10% of U.S. market in a decade?

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One report by a market research firm estimates that if imports of Chinese cars to the U.S. were allowed, they would take around 10% of the U.S. market over the next decade.

…according to market research firm Mobility Global, if restrictions were eased and China-based automakers were allowed to do business Stateside, they’d be selling as many as 1.7 million vehicles per year by 2038, Bloomberg reports. That translates to about 11% of the world’s second-largest automotive market (right behind China itself).

I find this a little hard to believe. I’ve seen Chinese EVs on the road while traveling in Southeast Asia, and they appear to be just as good as Japanese or Korean cars on the road (there were very few U.S. brands in evidence aside from a few pickups, but even there Toyotas are popular), and they are vastly cheaper. So it seems silly to me to think that U.S. consumers won’t choose something that is equally good and vastly cheaper, if not better and cheaper. And if there are no laws preventing government and corporate fleets from investing in these vehicles, I can’t see why they wouldn’t.

I think autonomous vehicles are going to take over quickly once legal and policy barriers finally fall, probably reaching critical mass in a couple years if I had to guess. And the reason EVs haven’t taken off, in my view, is the pathetic lack of accessible, convenient charging infrastructure. Autonomous vehicles are likely to remove that barrier because they can just drive off and find a charger somewhere that a human driver would not have the patience to deal with. I can’t imagine why entrepreneurs wouldn’t fill underused, out-of-the-way parking lots or warehouses with EV chargers. You can pack a lot of cars into a small space when infinitely patient robots are doing the maneuvering. It would be more like a port operation than a parking lot as we think of it.

You can say the power grid is not up to this, and that is probably right. But the increasing demand for electric power generation and transmission will drag that industry kicking and screaming into the present at some point. That is my understanding of how supply and demand work.

September 2026 OECD Economic Outlook

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The September 2026 OECD Economic Outlook is out. There is nothing too earth-shattering here, more like an extrapolation of current/recent trends. The project global (real) economic growth ticking up a bit from 2.9% in 2026 to 3.0% in 2027. In the U.S., the numbers are 2.2% and 2.1%, and in the Euro area 1.0% and 1.0%. So far, the world has been more resilient to the disruptions of the Iran War and U.S. tariff dumb-fuckery (I can’t bring myself to use the word “policy” which implies some sort of underlying theory or strategy) than expected, although the situation gets riskier the longer it goes on. While there are differences in inflation between countries, the inflation trend is global and projected to gradually ease going forward. China has been a special case of recent deflation, which they see ticking back up to a small positive number by next year. Government debt is concerning nearly worldwide, but they don’t see the bottom falling out suddenly or imminently. El Nino and “extreme storms” (the words “climate change” do not appear in this report) are likely to affect food prices which will affect low-income households the most. AI holds risks of short-term failure to meet market expectations, and medium- to long-term productivity enhancement.

September 2026 in Review

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Most frightening and/or depressing story: Concerns about the food supply over the next year or so have seeped from alternative media into mainstream media stories. I consider this indicator at least as frightening as the content of the stories themselves. Honorable mention: tactical nuclear weapons (these would not help the food supply).

Most hopeful story: While there has been somewhat of a rollback in the number of competitive electoral democracies over the last 20 years, this is a minor blip when you look at the democratic revolution over the past 250 years.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: While exercise lowers dementia risk in general, exercising at or on the way to work does not seem to help as much. I speculated this might be due to some combination of stress, noise pollution, and air pollution, with the latter two being solvable problems. But although raw “fluid” intelligence seems to peak around age 20, “crystalized intelligence” which accounts for experience does not start to decline sharply until well after age 50, and possibly not until after age 70. Reading, physical activity, and “engagement with arts and culture” are all good for the aging brain.

Democracy on Trial

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As we approach the U.S. midterm elections, I recommend everyone reading this watch the 2024 PBS Frontline documentary Democracy on Trial. It does a great job laying out the facts about the January 6, 2021 attacks – footage and eyewitness testimonies from the event itself, evidence collected and presented by the House January 6 committee, the special prosecutor report, and the criminal trial which ended abruptly with Trump’s reelection. They also interview Trump and his supporters and present their points of view fairly and objectively. Watch it, convince two other people to watch it, and convince them to convince two other people to watch it.

Cthulhu Mythos – Halloween Read 2026!

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With a little help from Gemini, I’ve put together a curated collection of Cthulhu Mythos stories. This includes some core H.P. Lovecraft canon, most of which I’ve read before, and stories by Robert E. Howard and Ashton Clark Smith, which I have not read. The three authors were in regular contact as they collaborated on these mostly in the 1930s.

DISCLAIMER: All these links seem safe to me, but use your best judgment. Also, I know there are things in Lovecraft’s writing that can be offensive to modern sensibilities, and as I have not read the other stories I don’t know how inoffensive or offensive they might be. Read them with your 1930s hat on and if you feel they are particularly bad, feel free to let me know.

I gave Gemini the title and the prompt “lots of tentacles please”. That’s all!
  1. “The Nameless City” (Lovecraft)
  2. “The Shadow Kingdom” (Howard)
  3. “The Call of Cthulhu” (Lovecraft)
  4. “The Fire of Ashurbanipal” (Howard)
  5. “The Whisperer in Darkness” (Lovecraft)
  6. “The Door to Saturn” (Smith)
  7. “The Coming of the White Worm” (Smith)
  8. “The Tale of Satampra Zeiros” (Smith)
  9. “The Shadow Over Innsmouth” (Lovecraft)
  10. “Worms of the Earth” (Howard)
  11. “The Mound” (Lovecraft & Bishop)
  12. “At the Mountains of Madness” (Lovecraft)
  13. “The Empire of the Necromancers” (Smith)
  14. “The Colossus of Ylourgne” (Smith)
  15. “The Dark Eidolon” (Smith)

What is good for the aging brain?

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What is good for the aging brain? First, reading. Is this really a surprise? There is some suggestion that reading about people in social situations might help substitute for being in actual social situations. Introverts rejoice! But there is also some suggestion of book clubs. Ugh…what I don’t like about book clubs is the idea that I am going to waste my remaining mortal reading time on suboptimal choices that other people think are good for me to read. Maybe online book clubs help solve this problem, because somewhere in the world’s billions there are probably at least thousands or even millions who want to read the things I want to read. But the idea of engaging with strangers on a screen is less appealing than a small group of friends or at least acquaintances discussing something. I like the idea, really – how about just reading something shorter than a book? I am not a huge short story fan, but maybe this is the happy medium. I can sit down and do my “homework” the night before or morning of book club. One more random thought – I wonder about audiobooks vs. reading on a page or screen. I enjoy both, but I actually find that both take regular practice at staying focused, and if I get out of practice with one or the other it takes some effort to get back into the swing of it. If you lose focus while reading words on a page, it’s easy to pause or backtrack, while if your mind wanders during an audiobook, it’s more annoying to rewind and try to figure out where you went wrong. I kind of like podcasts for this reason, because if I lose focus or doze off I don’t really care about going back. I’ll admit I also pay more attention to something I have paid money for than something I have not. Trying to concentrate and process the spoken word may very well be a useful cognitive exercise though, so when I say “annoying” that translates to “effort” which is the thing you have to do to improve or at least maintain yourself.

“Physical activity” – well, we knew that – but also “engagement with arts and culture“. Now that sounds kind of nice, but again I want to pick my arts and culture and not just ones that other people engage in to show off. I wonder if people have separated music from other arts, which could engage the brain differently. Music is inherently mathematical, it requires you to connect your senses and your brain in a unique way, and it is also creative, especially if you are making or writing it yourself. Really concentrating on music takes effort, similar to an audiobook, but you also just let it wash over you in the background without making the effort. Engaging in music with others might have different benefits than doing it by yourself. Damaging your eardrums with excessively loud music is almost certainly not good for your brain.

reputable economic and financial (and or socio-environmental?) reports

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I’ve been putting together a list of reputable economic, financial, and energy reports, and it’s interesting so I’m pasting it below. What I think would be really neat would be to have an automated page or blog posting that tells you what the most recent of these reports (or ones from the last 30 days, 90 days or whatever) is and where to find it.

This is me working with the free version of Gemini, by the way, and not extensively fact checked, so any details or links below could easily be quite wrong! The easiest way I have found to paste a table like this into WordPress is to make a “Custom HTML” block and then ask Gemini (or whatever AI) to give me the table in HTML form.

The first list seemed to me to completely leave out any economy-environment links, so I asked it to suggest a few reports that provide these links. The results are not entirely satisfying, but I’ve included them below. There’s an “analytical lens” (ugh, barfy buzz words Gemini!) column that could be used to filter to just the most mainstream reports or the more environmental ones, if someone wanted to do that. The list can definitely be refined.

I screened out any typically issued more frequently than once a quarter or less frequently than once a year, with an exception for the bi-annual Living Planet Report. There are a total of 22, but since some are semi-annual or quarterly it would work out to a new report about every 10 days on average. I’m sure we could dig up a few more and get this down to once a week. Could be neat if I ever get an automated version set up!

Entity Report Title Analytical Lens Publication Frequency Focus & Core Value Landing Page
WEF Global Risks Report Mainstream Economics/Finance Annual (January) Survey-based analysis of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and environmental tail risks. WEF Reports Hub
Circle Economy / Deloitte Circularity Gap Report Mainstream Systems Analysis Annual (January) Mass-balance metabolic flow analysis tracking global raw material throughput vs. circular flows. Circularity Gap Page
World Bank Global Economic Prospects (GEP) Mainstream Economics/Finance Semi-Annual (January & June) Emerging markets, developing economies, debt trends, and global trade flows. World Bank GEP Page
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Mainstream Economics/Finance Quarterly (Jan update; April & Oct major; July update) Global growth forecasts, inflation trajectories, and structural macro risks. IMF WEO Landing Page
CBO The Budget and Economic Outlook Mainstream Economics/Finance Semi-Annual (Feb major; May/June update) Nonpartisan 10-year US economic growth, deficit, debt-to-GDP, and interest rate baselines. CBO Outlook Page
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report Mainstream Economics/Finance Semi-Annual (February & July) Statutory report to Congress covering US labor markets, inflation, and policy stance. Fed Monetary Policy Page
OECD OECD Economic Outlook Mainstream Economics/Finance Quarterly (March update; June & Dec major; Sept update) Advanced economy GDP forecasts, employment, and structural fiscal policy. OECD Economic Outlook Page
WMO State of the Global Climate Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (March/April) Physical climate indicators (temperatures, ocean heat, sea levels, severe weather impacts). WMO Climate Report Page
IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Mainstream Economics/Finance Semi-Annual (April & October) Global capital markets, banking sector risks, and financial liquidity. IMF GFSR Landing Page
Global Footprint Network National Footprint & Biocapacity Accounts Mainstream Systems Analysis Annual (Spring / April update) Carrying capacity accounting measuring humanity’s ecological footprint vs. biosphere biocapacity. Global Footprint Network Page
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Mainstream Economics/Finance Semi-Annual (May & November) Assessment of systemic financial leverage, funding risks, and asset valuation pressures. Fed Financial Stability Page
BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook (NEO) Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (May/June) Clean energy tech economics, grid investment curves, and battery cost modeling. BloombergNEF NEO Page
Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (June) The primary global energy production, trade, and consumption dataset (formerly BP). Energy Institute Review Page
BIS Annual Economic Report Mainstream Economics/Finance Annual (Late June) Central bank policy, global banking systems, and international monetary mechanics. BIS Annual Report Page
Potsdam Institute (PIK) Planetary Health Check Mainstream Systems Analysis Annual (September) System dynamics modeling of 9 planetary boundaries, tipping points, and Earth subsystem interactions. Planetary Health Check Page
IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (October) Long-term global energy transition demand, supply, and net-zero technology pathways. IEA WEO Landing Page
ZSL / WWF Living Planet Report Mainstream Environmental Economics Biennial (October, even years) Scientific measurement of global biodiversity trends, population dynamics, and ecosystem integrity. ZSL Living Planet Page
UNEP Emissions Gap Report Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (October/November) Global greenhouse gas commitments vs. actual emission reductions required for Paris targets. UNEP Emissions Gap Page
NGFS Climate Scenarios & Macroeconomic Risk Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (October/November) Central bank models linking climate physical/transition risks directly to macro GDP & inflation. NGFS Scenarios Portal
Global Carbon Project Global Carbon Budget Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (November) Peer-reviewed global tracking of fossil CO2 emissions, land-use change, ocean sinks, and carbon budgets. GCP Carbon Budget Page
UNEP State of Finance for Nature Mainstream Environmental Economics Annual (November/December) Audits public & private capital flows, mapping economic investments vs. natural capital loss. UNEP Finance for Nature Page
Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook Mainstream Economics/Finance Annual (Dec) + Quarterly Updates Secular economic trends, neutral interest rate estimates, and asset class return models. Vanguard Research Page

a free alternative to Adobe Photoshop

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Adobe Photoshop is what professional graphic artists have used for quite a while now. But for the rest of us, who might want to just make minor edits to a photo or change a background color in an image, it has been a major barrier. Now, Canva has decided to make their editing software Affinity free. Canva is a subscription service so they must have decided making this tool free will ultimately increase paying customers. I’m not a big Adobe fan (Die Adobe Acrobat! Die!) so I am not upset. It could also be that with even free AI tools getting pretty good at working with graphics, expensive tools like Photoshop are headed for obsolescense.